01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Grimsby Town to win58%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL League TwoBlundell Park, Cleethorpes11°0,2 mm25 km/h
Läs på svenska
Grimsby TownPossession control0–2
Northampton TownPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Grimsby Town (58%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.97 (+3 %)
Grimsby Town vs Northampton Town · EFL League Two
1 · Grimsby Town 58%X 24%18% Northampton Town · 2
58%
24%
18%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Grimsby Town vs Northampton Town (EFL League Two, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Grimsby Town win 58%, draw 24%, Northampton Town win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Grimsby Town 1.73, Northampton Town 0.86. Most likely score: 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Grimsby Town or draw 82%, Northampton Town or draw 42%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Grimsby Town – Northampton Town
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Grimsby Town's recent three-game losing streak casts a shadow over their otherwise favorable matchup against Northampton Town. Despite the dip in form, the model gives the hosts a 58% probability of winning, a significant edge over the visitors' modest 18%. The Mariners' superior xG of 1.7 compared to the Cobblers' 0.77 suggests that Grimsby is creating more chances, although recent results haven't reflected this.
Northampton's defense, with an xGA per match of 1.1, marginally outperforms Grimsby's 1.3, but it's their attacking inefficiency that could be their undoing. The visitors' inability to capitalize on chances is mirrored in their low expected goals, a factor that might hinder their efforts against a Grimsby side eager to regain ground. The odds point to a tight affair, with 1-0 (13%) emerging as the most likely scoreline.
In terms of goals, the odds suggest a balanced 48% for both the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, indicating uncertainty but not a high-scoring expectation. The playing styles of both teams, both favoring possession control, could lead to a tactical battle rather than an open goal fest. This leans towards a conservative scoreline, with under 2.5 goals slightly more plausible.
For bettors, the standout angles lie in the unders market. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer an ambitious under 0.5 at odds of 13.0, with a small edge according to the model. More conservatively, LeoVegas presents an under 3.5 at 1.364, another value proposition given the historical trends and expected cautious approach by both sides. With Grimsby likely to win narrowly, the unders could be the shrewd play here amidst the tension of their losing streak.
Grimsby TownForm WWLLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #14xT #2xP/match #14Points #11
Key players
- Iwan Tomas MorganFxG 0.64 · xT 0.28
- Cameron McjannettCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
- Charles VernamLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.25
Northampton TownForm DWLLD
League ranking xG #24xGA #6xT #23xP/match #19Points #23
Key players
- Lee EvansCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
- Elliott Jordan MooreCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
- Jonathan Neil GuthrieCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Final score
0 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Grimsby Town 58% · Draw 24% · Northampton Town 18%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - GrimsbyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,78fair 7,45-22 %
MissMatchresultat - NorthamptonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 15,18fair 29,70-49 %
MissMatch prediction: Grimsby Town – Northampton Town
Predicted score matrix
Northampton Town →
Grimsby Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–16.1%
0–22.8%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–012.7%
1–111.5%
1–24.8%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–011.3%
2–19.6%
2–24.1%
2–31.2%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–06.5%
3–15.6%
3–22.4%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–04.1%
4+–13.5%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.1-111%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,73–0,86
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.97EV+0%
Over 2,548%
@1.87
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Grimsby Town to win58%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Andrew Ellis Cook to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Andrew Ellis Cook to score30%
- Elliott Jordan Moore to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.552% probability@1.97PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- 1 · Grimsby Town58% probability@1.77PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- Under 3.574% probability@1.36LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Grimsby Town | X | 2 · Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.72 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.73 | 3.65 | 4.33 |
| Nordicbet | 1.72 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 1.77 | 3.78 | 4.51 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+3 %
57 %52 %
1.72 → 1.77
X-2 %
27 %22 %
3.84 → 3.78
2+3 %
24 %19 %
4.37 → 4.51
Over 2,5+2 %
54 %49 %
1.83 → 1.87
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Grimsby Town have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Grimsby Town
Northampton Town
Grimsby Town (13–11)
Northampton Town (4–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Grimsby Town
Northampton Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Grimsby Town
Northampton Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Grimsby Town | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 7 |
| xPoints | 13.4 | 9.6 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 0.77 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Grimsby Town | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.57 |
| xTA per match | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 289 | 246 |
| Passes against per match | 209 | 334 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.1 | 14 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 21 |
| Set pieces | Grimsby Town | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| Other | Grimsby Town | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Christy James Pym (Grimsby Town) | Zachary Anton John Jeacock (Northampton Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 18 |
| Save % | 71% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Shrewsbury Town – Bristol Rovers17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Fleetwood Town – Rotherham United17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Accrington Stanley – Gillingham17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crewe Alexandra – Rochdale17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Port Vale – Chesterfield17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Colchester United – Exeter City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Salford City – Crawley Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Newport County – York City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Oldham Athletic – Cheltenham Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Grimsby Town vs Northampton Town according to our model?
The model gives Grimsby Town a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grimsby Town 58%, draw 24%, Northampton Town 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Grimsby Town vs Northampton Town?
The model expects 1.73 goals (xG) for Grimsby Town and 0.86 for Northampton Town, 2.58 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Grimsby Town or draw (1X) 82%, Northampton Town or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.