01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Crewe Alexandra to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
EFL League TwoGresty Road, Crewe8°15 km/h
Läs på svenska
Crewe AlexandraPossession control3–2
RochdalePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Crewe Alexandra (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Rochdale @ 4.24 (+3 %)
Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale · EFL League Two
1 · Crewe Alexandra 47%X 28%24% Rochdale · 2
47%
28%
24%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale (EFL League Two, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Crewe Alexandra win 47%, draw 28%, Rochdale win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Crewe Alexandra 1.59, Rochdale 1.05. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Crewe Alexandra or draw 76%, Rochdale or draw 53%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Crewe Alexandra – Rochdale
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Crewe Alexandra's unbeaten run of 11 league matches underscores their recent dominance and sets the stage for their clash against Rochdale. The hosts' ability to maintain possession and control the game's tempo is a significant factor in their recent success. With model probabilities favoring Crewe at 47% to secure a win, their tactical approach seems to provide the edge over the visitors.
Rochdale, though unbeaten in their last five games, lag behind in key metrics. Their xPoints of 9.5 and xG of 0.88 per match highlight a gap in performance compared to Crewe's stronger numbers. The visitors also concede a higher xGA of 1.5 per match, which could be problematic against a team that is adept at dictating play and creating opportunities.
The expected goals suggest a likely edge for Crewe with 1.59 to Rochdale's 1.05, hinting at a potential victory for the hosts. Even though both teams favor possession control, Crewe's superior execution in both attack and defense provides them with a clearer path to capitalizing on any opportunities that arise. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, reflect this edge, albeit with a hint of caution related to Rochdale's resilience.
Despite the tightness of the contest, the data leans towards a slightly lower-scoring affair, with the over 2.5 goals scenario sitting just below the halfway mark at 49%. The "both teams to score" market is marginally more likely at 52%, but the numbers suggest that Crewe Alexandra might edge this one out with a narrow victory, most likely 1-0 or 2-1.
For bettors, the model's insights point to a tactical, data-driven match where Crewe Alexandra's superior underlying numbers make them the more likely side to come out on top, particularly in tight, low-scoring scenarios like 1-0 or 2-1.
Crewe AlexandraForm DDDWW
League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #14xP/match #7Points #2
Key players
- Luke William OffordCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Josh MarchFxG 0.31 · xT 0.10
- Joe Peter WhiteCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
RochdaleForm DWWWD
League ranking xG #23xGA #20xT #21xP/match #24Points #10
Key players
- Sam SherringCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Charlie TaskerRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
- Glenn Bell Dollar MiddletonLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.24
Final score
3 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Crewe Alexandra 47% · Draw 28% · Rochdale 24%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - CreweBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,40fair 7,96-20 %
HitMatchresultat - RochdaleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,46fair 18,09-26 %
MissMatch prediction: Crewe Alexandra – Rochdale
Predicted score matrix
Rochdale →
Crewe Alexandra →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–17.1%
0–23.9%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–011.0%
1–112.3%
1–26.3%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.0%
2–19.5%
2–25.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–04.8%
3–15.0%
3–22.6%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–12.9%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,59–1,05
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,607%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.93
Over 2,549%
@1.90
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Crewe Alexandra to win47%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Joshua Thomas March to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Dajaune Anthony Brown to score21%
- Harvey James Gilmour to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Rochdale24% probability@4.24PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.56PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Crewe Alexandra | X | 2 · Rochdale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | EV+ 1% 3.56 | EV+ 3% 4.24 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Crewe Alexandra win since 10 October — the odds have shortened from 2.02 to 1.87 (−7%).
1-7 %
54 %44 %
2.02 → 1.87
X+2 %
31 %21 %
3.49 → 3.56
2+25 %
30 %20 %
3.40 → 4.24
Over 2,5+8 %
57 %47 %
1.76 → 1.90
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Crewe Alexandra are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches.
- Rochdale are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Crewe Alexandra
Rochdale
Crewe Alexandra (12–7)
Rochdale (11–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Crewe Alexandra
Rochdale
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Crewe Alexandra
Rochdale
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Crewe Alexandra | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 14 |
| xPoints | 15.4 | 9.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 0.88 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.07 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Crewe Alexandra | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 0.82 | 0.64 |
| xTA per match | 0.81 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 18 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 285 | 355 |
| Passes against per match | 304 | 308 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.3 | 20.9 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Crewe Alexandra | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.57 |
| Other | Crewe Alexandra | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Tom Booth (Crewe Alexandra) | Nils Ramming (Rochdale) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 36 | 26 |
| Save % | 84% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Shrewsbury Town – Bristol Rovers17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Fleetwood Town – Rotherham United17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Accrington Stanley – Gillingham17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Port Vale – Chesterfield17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Colchester United – Exeter City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Salford City – Crawley Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Newport County – York City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Grimsby Town – Northampton Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Oldham Athletic – Cheltenham Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale according to our model?
The model gives Crewe Alexandra a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Crewe Alexandra 47%, draw 28%, Rochdale 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale?
The model expects 1.59 goals (xG) for Crewe Alexandra and 1.05 for Rochdale, 2.64 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Crewe Alexandra or draw (1X) 76%, Rochdale or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.