01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Colchester United or draw (1X)65%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
EFL League TwoColchester Community Stadium, Colchester10°23 km/h
Läs på svenska
Colchester UnitedPossession control0–0
Exeter CityPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Colchester United (36%)Best value by the model: 2 · Exeter City @ 3.35 (+15 %)
Colchester United vs Exeter City · EFL League Two
1 · Colchester United 36%X 29%34% Exeter City · 2
36%
29%
34%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Colchester United vs Exeter City (EFL League Two, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Colchester United win 36%, draw 29%, Exeter City win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Colchester United 1.27, Exeter City 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Colchester United or draw 66%, Exeter City or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Colchester United – Exeter City
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
The model gives a narrow edge to Colchester United with a 36% probability of winning, while Exeter City isn't far behind at 34%, and the draw sits at 29%. Such close numbers hint at a tight contest, where every moment could be pivotal.
Colchester, with a possession control style, has managed to generate slightly more xG per match at 1.2 compared to Exeter's 1.1. However, their defensive vulnerabilities are stark, conceding an average of 1.6 xGA per match — a clear advantage for the visitors, who have a tighter defensive record with 1.2 xGA. Despite the xG edge favoring Colchester, Exeter's superior xPoints tally of 14.3 versus Colchester's 9.3 underscores their stronger underlying metrics this season.
The market sees potential value in betting on Exeter City at 3.35 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, given the model's 34% probability rating — a substantial 15% edge. Meanwhile, the predicted scorelines lean heavily towards a closely fought, low-scoring affair, with 1-1, 1-0, and 0-1 all at 10% or higher. The over/under 2.5 goals is a coin toss at 45%, suggesting that goals might be scarce.
That said, the over 3.5 goals market at LeoVegas offers a 9% edge at odds of 4.59, making it an intriguing high-risk, high-reward proposition. While the expectation leans towards a narrow 1-1 draw, bettors with an appetite for risk might find this odds-on option too tempting to ignore.
Colchester UnitedForm LDDDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #22xT #4xP/match #23Points #19
Key players
- Jack PayneCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.21
- Ellis IandoloLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.23
- Jonathan Moses Momoh SesayRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.12
Exeter CityForm LDLWW
League ranking xG #20xGA #8xT #19xP/match #8Points #13
Key players
- Jake Billy Doyle-HayesCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
- Edward George Martin JamesCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
- Jack Joseph FitzwaterCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.04
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Colchester United 36% · Draw 29% · Exeter City 34%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - ExeterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,64fair 13,37-5 %
MissMatchresultat - ColchesterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,27fair 12,13-32 %
MissMatch prediction: Colchester United – Exeter City
Predicted score matrix
Exeter City →
Colchester United →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.8%
0–19.7%
0–26.1%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–010.3%
1–113.2%
1–27.8%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–06.8%
2–18.2%
2–24.9%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–02.9%
3–13.5%
3–22.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.5%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,27–1,21
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.74
Over 2,545%
@2.11
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Colchester United or draw (1X)65%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Bradley Osezele Akhigbe Philip Ihionvien to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Bradley Osezele Akhigbe Philip Ihionvien to score22%
- Luca Woodhouse to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Exeter City34% probability@3.35PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- 2 · Exeter City34% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
- 2 · Exeter City34% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Colchester United | X | 2 · Exeter City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.12 | 3.30 | EV+ 12% 3.25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | 3.35 | EV+ 10% 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | 2.12 | 3.30 | EV+ 12% 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 3.38 | EV+ 15% 3.35 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+2 %
46 %41 %
2.15 → 2.20
X-3 %
30 %25 %
3.49 → 3.38
2+5 %
31 %26 %
3.19 → 3.35
Over 2,5+6 %
49 %44 %
2.00 → 2.11
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Colchester United
Exeter City
Colchester United (10–13)
Exeter City (6–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Colchester United
Exeter City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Colchester United
Exeter City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Colchester United | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 12 |
| xPoints | 9.3 | 14.3 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Colchester United | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.89 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 332 | 231 |
| Passes against per match | 254 | 289 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.1 | 15.8 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Colchester United | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.22 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| Other | Colchester United | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Thimothée Jacques Orcel Lo-Tutala (Colchester United) | Jack Thomas Bycroft (Exeter City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 27 |
| Save % | 72% | 82% |
| xG prevented | 55% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Shrewsbury Town – Bristol Rovers17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Fleetwood Town – Rotherham United17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Accrington Stanley – Gillingham17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crewe Alexandra – Rochdale17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Port Vale – Chesterfield17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Salford City – Crawley Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Newport County – York City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Grimsby Town – Northampton Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Oldham Athletic – Cheltenham Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Colchester United vs Exeter City according to our model?
The model gives Colchester United a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Colchester United 36%, draw 29%, Exeter City 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Colchester United vs Exeter City?
The model expects 1.27 goals (xG) for Colchester United and 1.21 for Exeter City, 2.48 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Colchester United or draw (1X) 66%, Exeter City or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.