01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Walsall or draw (X2)69%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL League TwoCounty Ground, Swindon9°20 km/h
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Swindon TownPossession control1–1
WalsallCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Walsall (40%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 15.00 (+18 %)
Swindon Town vs Walsall · EFL League Two
1 · Swindon Town 32%X 27%40% Walsall · 2
32%
27%
40%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Swindon Town vs Walsall (EFL League Two, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Swindon Town win 32%, draw 27%, Walsall win 40%. Expected goals (xG): Swindon Town 1.18, Walsall 1.42. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Swindon Town or draw 60%, Walsall or draw 68%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Swindon Town – Walsall
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Walsall's nine-match unbeaten run in the league places them at 40% to win against Swindon Town, whose possession control may struggle against the visitors' counter-attacking style. With model projections giving Walsall a slight edge in expected goals at 1.42 to Swindon's 1.18, the visitors are favored. The most probable result is a 1-1 draw at 13%, but the 0-1 outcome at 10% further hints at Walsall's potential advantage.
The head-to-head tally since 2023, with each team winning twice, is too small to challenge the current trend and Walsall's superior form. Both teams show nearly identical points and expected points, but Walsall's higher xG and lower xGA per match reinforce their quality advantage. Swindon's defense could be vulnerable to Walsall's crossing strategy, aligning with the model's lean toward the visitors claiming a narrow victory.
For the betting angle, the under 2.5 goals at odds 2.18 with Betsafe presents a 13% edge, supported by the model's 52% rating. Despite the likelihood of a tight affair, the under 0.5 at 15.0 with Betsafe or Nordicbet carries significant risk but also an appealing 18% edge if you're seeking higher value.
Swindon TownForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #21xGA #23xT #22xP/match #20Points #17
Key players
- Daniel ButlerLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.18
- Aaron John DrinanFxG 0.45 · xT 0.03
- Jack ThomsonCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
WalsallForm DDWDD
League ranking xG #5xGA #17xT #7xP/match #15Points #6
Key players
- Aaron PressleyFxG 0.57 · xT -0.02
- Mason Colin HancockLBxG 0.13 · xT 0.20
- Courtney Alphonso ClarkeRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.21
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Swindon Town 32% · Draw 27% · Walsall 40%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - WalsallBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,99fair 9,73-28 %
MissMatchresultat - SwindonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,63fair 13,99-45 %
MissMatch prediction: Swindon Town – Walsall
Predicted score matrix
Walsall →
Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.8%
0–110.2%
0–27.5%
0–33.5%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–08.4%
1–112.8%
1–28.8%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–05.2%
2–17.3%
2–25.2%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.0%
3–12.9%
3–22.0%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,18–1,42
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@2.19EV+10%
Over 2,548%
@1.69
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Walsall or draw (X2)69%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Andrew Robert Dallas to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Aaron John Drinan to score27%
- Roman Ivan Quintyne Dixon to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.58% probability@15.00BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
- Under 0.58% probability@15.00NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
- Under 2.552% probability@2.19PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Swindon Town | X | 2 · Walsall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.62 | 3.45 | 2.42 |
| LeoVegas | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Nordicbet | 2.62 | 3.45 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.74 | 3.65 | 2.44 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+3 %
37 %32 %
2.65 → 2.74
X+1 %
29 %24 %
3.60 → 3.65
20 %
41 %36 %
2.45 → 2.44
Over 2,5+2 %
59 %54 %
1.65 → 1.69
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesSwindon Town 2Draw 0Walsall 2
Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Key facts
- Walsall are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Swindon Town
Walsall
Swindon Town (9–14)
Walsall (12–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Swindon Town
Walsall
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Swindon Town
Walsall
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Swindon Town | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 15 |
| xPoints | 11.7 | 12 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Swindon Town | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 0.59 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.4 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 244 | 360 |
| Passes against per match | 314 | 241 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.6 | 29.5 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Swindon Town | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 7.8 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.27 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| Other | Swindon Town | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Connor Ripley (Swindon Town) | Jed MacAulay Ward (Walsall) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 40 | 35 |
| Save % | 74% | 85% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 71% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Shrewsbury Town – Bristol Rovers17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Fleetwood Town – Rotherham United17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Accrington Stanley – Gillingham17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crewe Alexandra – Rochdale17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Port Vale – Chesterfield17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Colchester United – Exeter City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Salford City – Crawley Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Newport County – York City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Grimsby Town – Northampton Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Swindon Town vs Walsall according to our model?
The model gives Walsall a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Swindon Town 32%, draw 27%, Walsall 40%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Swindon Town vs Walsall?
The model expects 1.18 goals (xG) for Swindon Town and 1.42 for Walsall, 2.59 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Swindon Town or draw (1X) 60%, Walsall or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.