01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Red Star to win46%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Ligue 2Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand8°14 km/h
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Clermontvs
Red StarThe model's lean: 2 · Red Star (46%)
Clermont vs Red Star · Ligue 2
1 · Clermont 26%X 27%46% Red Star · 2
26%
27%
46%
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Analysis: Clermont – Red Star
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
In the tension between Clermont's unbeaten streak and Red Star's recent dominance lies the crux of this contest. The hosts have managed to avoid defeat in their last five league outings, suggesting a resilience that can't be ignored. Yet, it's Red Star's surge, with three consecutive victories, that casts a longer shadow over this clash. The visitors arrive with momentum, and the model's probabilities reflect this tilt, granting Red Star a 46% chance of victory compared to Clermont's 26%.
Clermont's defensive solidity will be tested against a Red Star side that has been on the ascendancy. Despite the home side's knack for grinding out results, their expected goals (xG) of 1.05 hints at a struggle to break down defenses. On the flip side, Red Star boasts a higher xG of 1.46, emphasizing their recent attacking prowess. The most probable scoreline of 1-1, at 13%, indicates a tight contest, but the model's lean towards a 0-1 or 1-2 result for the visitors can’t be overlooked.
While the head-to-head record since 2023 shows a small sample with three draws and one loss for Clermont, it's not substantial enough to outweigh current form. This matchup is more about Red Star's current trajectory than past encounters. The likelihood of both teams finding the net stands at 50%, reflecting a balanced battle, yet with a slight edge for the away side.
The sharpest angle for punters lies in Red Star's victory odds. There's value here, with Unibet offering odds of 2.30 for a Red Star win. Given the synthesis of form and model probabilities, this bet stands out as the clearest play in a match where the visitors have the upper hand.
ClermontForm DDDDD
Key players
- Ethan Kena KabeyaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
- Ivan MbahiaRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Vital Manuel N'SimbaLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
Red StarForm DLWWW
Key players
- Kévin CabralFxG 0.28 · xT 0.03
- Damien DurandLWxG 0.47 · xT 0.24
- Kémo CisséRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Clermont – Red Star
Predicted score matrix
Red Star →
Clermont →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–111.5%
0–28.6%
0–34.2%
0–4+2.1%
1
1–08.2%
1–112.8%
1–29.1%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–04.5%
2–16.6%
2–24.8%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.3%
3–21.7%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,05–1,46
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.74
Over 2,546%
@2.07
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Red Star to win46%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Kévin Cabral to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Kévin Cabral to score27%
- Elyaz Zidane Fernández to be booked22%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Clermont | X | 2 · Red Star |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.50 | 3.15 | 2.02 |
| Nordicbet | 3.50 | 3.15 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.52 | 3.34 | 2.10 |
Odds updated 1 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesClermont 0Draw 3Red Star 1
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Clermont Foot are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- Red Star come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Clermont
Red Star
Clermont (4–6)
Red Star (9–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Clermont
Red Star
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Clermont
Red Star
| The goalkeepers | Theo Guivarch (Clermont) | Gaetan Poussin (Red Star) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 21 |
| Save % | 72% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Clermont vs Red Star according to our model?
The model gives Red Star a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Clermont 26%, draw 27%, Red Star 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.