Saint-Étienne vs Rodez Prediction: Home win 57% (9 Oct 2026)

Ligue 29 October 2026Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Étienne8°1,8 mm19 km/h

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Saint-Étienne

Rodez

The model's lean: 1 · Saint-Étienne (57%)Best value by the model: 2 · Rodez @ 7.08 (+28 %)

1 · Saint-Étienne 57%X 25%18% Rodez · 2

57%

25%

18%

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Analysis: Saint-Étienne – Rodez

Erik Lindberg · 1 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Saint-Étienne's 67% home win rate in all-time matches sets the stage for this Ligue 2 clash, where they are favored with a 57% probability to secure victory. The model leans towards a home win, with the hosts expected to control proceedings against a Rodez side struggling with three consecutive losses. With expected goals at 2.03 for Saint-Étienne compared to Rodez's 0.93, the numbers suggest a solid, if not thrilling, advantage for the home side.

The small head-to-head sample offers little to upend the current form narrative, with Saint-Étienne winning one, drawing one, and losing one of their three encounters since 2023. While the most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 1-0 underscore a Saint-Étienne victory, the close 1-1 probability hints at a slim chance for Rodez to snatch a point. The model's 57% inclination for over 2.5 goals is tempered by the visitors' recent struggles, which could stifle their attacking threat.

With Unibet offering Saint-Étienne to win at 1.75, there appears to be some value in backing the home side, given their formidable home record and Rodez's vulnerabilities. The data points to a controlled 2-0 victory for Saint-Étienne, aligning with the under 2.5 goals possibility, yet leaving room for a cautious play on the odds.

Saint-Étienne

Form WWWLD

Key players

Augustine BoakyeRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18
Kévin PedroRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
Irvin Charly Jose CardonaRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.21

Rodez

Form WDLLL

Key players

Ibrahima BaldéFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
Jordan MendesCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Mathis TouhoFxG 0.37 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Saint-Étienne – Rodez

Predicted score matrix

Rodez →

Saint-Étienne →

0–05.5%

0–14.5%

0–22.2%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.3%

1–110.1%

1–24.5%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.7%

2–19.9%

2–24.6%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.2%

3–16.7%

3–23.1%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–05.8%

4+–15.4%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.1-110%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,03–0,93

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.62EV+13%

Over 2,557%

@1.43

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Saint-Étienne to win57%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Saint-Étienne to win57%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Irvin Charly Jose Cardona to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Irvin Charly Jose Cardona to score27%
Mathis Magnin to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Rodez18% probability@7.08PinnacleEV+28%reference odds
X · Draw25% probability@4.79PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
2 · Rodez18% probability@6.40BetsafeEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Saint-Étienne	X	2 · Rodez
Betsafe	1.39	EV+ 11% 4.50	EV+ 16% 6.40
Nordicbet	1.39	EV+ 11% 4.50	EV+ 16% 6.40
Pinnacle	1.39	EV+ 18% 4.79	EV+ 28% 7.08

Odds updated 1 Oct, 07:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Saint-Étienne 1Draw 1Rodez 1

Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Rodez have lost 3 in a row.
Saint-Etienne win 67% of their home matches all-time (21 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Saint-Étienne

Rodez

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Saint-Étienne (19–8)

Rodez (14–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Saint-Étienne

Rodez

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Saint-Étienne

Rodez

The goalkeepers	Gautier Larsonneur (Saint-Étienne)	Lucas Margueron (Rodez)
Saves	11	12
Save %	58%	52%
xG prevented	29%	20%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Saint-Étienne

Fixtures, form & tips

Rodez

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Saint-Étienne vs Rodez according to our model?

The model gives Saint-Étienne a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Saint-Étienne 57%, draw 25%, Rodez 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.