01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Pau or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Ligue 2Nouste Camp, Pau12°8 km/h
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Pauvs
LavalThe model's lean: 1 · Pau (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Laval @ 3.35 (+4 %)
Pau vs Laval · Ligue 2
1 · Pau 41%X 28%31% Laval · 2
41%
28%
31%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Pau – Laval
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The model sees Pau as slight favorites with a 41% chance of winning, but Laval shouldn't be underestimated. They're given a 31% likelihood of victory — enough to suggest value in their odds. Pau have won both previous encounters since 2023, though with just two matches, this head-to-head record should be taken lightly compared to form and expected goals.
Expected goals favor the hosts, with 1.59 to Laval's 1.29, hinting at a tight contest. A 1-1 draw is the most probable outcome according to the statistical breakdown, but a narrow 2-1 or 1-0 victory for Pau also holds merit. The numbers suggest a competitive encounter rather than a one-sided affair.
With a 55% chance for over 2.5 goals, there's a slight lean toward a more open game, and both teams scoring is pegged at 58%. However, the model's probabilities for a lower-scoring match are not far behind. Given these nuances, punters might expect a balanced game with potential for goals from both sides.
If you're looking for a betting angle, the over 2.5 goals market presents a 2% edge at odds of 1.85 with LeoVegas, while backing Laval at 3.25 carries a smaller 1% edge. Both bets offer a touch of value, underscoring a match with potential surprises.
The most compelling bet might be the over 2.5 goals at 1.85 with LeoVegas, supported by the 55% model probability. But keep an eye on Laval's odds as well — there's just enough value to make them worth a look.
PauForm LDDLW
Key players
- Babacar LeyeFxG 0.76 · xT -0.06
- Hacène BenaliFxG 0.09 · xT -0.02
- Jessy BenetCDMxG 0.18 · xT 0.08
LavalForm DLLLD
Key players
- Malik SelloukiRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
- Esteban MoutonRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
- Abou KanteFxG 0.72 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Pau – Laval
Predicted score matrix
Laval →
Pau →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–16.9%
0–24.7%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–08.6%
1–111.9%
1–27.4%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–07.1%
2–19.1%
2–25.9%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.8%
3–23.1%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.1%
4+–12.7%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,59–1,29
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@1.82
Over 2,555%
@1.88EV+3%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Pau or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Babacar Leye to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Babacar Leye to score29%
- Cyril Paul Mandouki to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Laval31% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- 2 · Laval31% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
- Over 2.555% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Pau | X | 2 · Laval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.08 | 3.25 | EV+ 4% 3.35 |
| LeoVegas | 2.05 | 3.25 | EV+ 1% 3.25 |
| Nordicbet | 2.08 | 3.25 | EV+ 4% 3.35 |
Odds updated 1 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesPau 2Draw 0Laval 0
Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Pau
Laval
Pau (6–6)
Laval (8–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Pau
Laval
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Pau
Laval
| The goalkeepers | Brice Maubleu (Pau) | Mamadou Samassa (Laval) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 27 | 23 |
| Save % | 82% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 61% | 50% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Pau vs Laval according to our model?
The model gives Pau a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pau 41%, draw 28%, Laval 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.