Dunkerque vs Annecy Prediction: Away win 38% (9 Oct 2026)

Ligue 29 October 2026Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque11°0,9 mm27 km/h

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Dunkerque

Annecy

The model's lean: 2 · Annecy (38%)

1 · Dunkerque 33%X 28%38% Annecy · 2

33%

28%

38%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Dunkerque – Annecy

Erik Lindberg · 1 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Annecy's consistent scoring run is the standout statistic here, with the visitors hitting the net in 11 straight league fixtures. This attacking reliability gives them a slight edge against Dunkerque. The match probabilities favor Annecy at 38%, with the hosts at 33% and a draw at 28%. The most likely scorelines reflect this balance, with both 1-1 and 1-2 appearing as probable outcomes.

Though the head-to-head record since 2023 is limited with just four encounters, Annecy has had the upper hand, winning two and drawing one. Nonetheless, such a small sample pales in comparison to current form and expected goals, where Annecy again leads with 1.51 to Dunkerque's 1.23. This suggests that Annecy might just have enough firepower to secure a result, but Dunkerque’s home advantage could keep things tight.

The model leans slightly towards Annecy, making their win at odds of 2.95 with LeoVegas tempting, offering a 14% edge. With 56% likelihood for both teams to score and an over 2.5 goals probability of 52%, a narrow away win like 1-2 seems plausible. Ultimately, Annecy's current form and scoring streak make them the value play here.

Dunkerque

Form LLDWL

Key players

Thomas RobinetFxG 0.42 · xT 0.11
Adrien LebeauLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
Alex DahoRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.29

Annecy

Form LDWLL

Key players

Thibault RambaudFxG 0.66 · xT 0.00
Clément BillemazLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
Ahmed KashiCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Dunkerque – Annecy

Predicted score matrix

Annecy →

Dunkerque →

0–06.8%

0–19.4%

0–27.3%

0–33.7%

0–4+2.0%

1–07.6%

1–112.3%

1–29.1%

1–34.6%

1–4+2.4%

2–04.9%

2–17.4%

2–25.6%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.0%

3–13.0%

3–22.3%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,23–1,51

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@1.95

Over 2,552%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Annecy or draw (X2)69%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Annecy or draw (X2)69%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Moïse Orell Dion Sahi to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Moïse Orell Dion Sahi to score23%
Ahmed Kashi to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Annecy38% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
2 · Annecy38% probability@3.00NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
2 · Annecy38% probability@2.95LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Dunkerque	X	2 · Annecy
Betsafe	2.22	3.30	EV+ 15% 3.00
LeoVegas	2.20	3.25	EV+ 14% 2.95
Nordicbet	2.22	3.30	EV+ 15% 3.00

Odds updated 1 Oct, 07:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Dunkerque 1Draw 1Annecy 2

Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Annecy have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dunkerque

Annecy

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Dunkerque (10–12)

Annecy (9–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dunkerque

Annecy

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dunkerque

Annecy

The goalkeepers	Mohamet Airam Ramos Wade (Dunkerque)	Florian Escales (Annecy)
Saves	15	20
Save %	71%	71%
xG prevented	43%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Dunkerque

Fixtures, form & tips

Annecy

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dunkerque vs Annecy according to our model?

The model gives Annecy a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dunkerque 33%, draw 28%, Annecy 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.