Nancy vs Guingamp Prediction: Home win 50% (9 Oct 2026)

Ligue 29 October 2026Stade Marcel Picot, Nancy10°11 km/h

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Nancy

Guingamp

The model's lean: 1 · Nancy (50%)

1 · Nancy 50%X 27%23% Guingamp · 2

50%

27%

23%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Nancy – Guingamp

Marcus Johansson · 1 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Nancy's recent tactical shift has caught the eye, focusing on aggressive wing play and quick transitions, making them difficult to contain on home turf. The model rates them as having a 50% chance of victory, a stark contrast to Guingamp's mere 23%. The hosts' approach is clearly designed to exploit their opponent's vulnerabilities, who have shown inconsistencies in defensive organization this season. With Nancy's expected goals sitting at 1.54 compared to Guingamp's 1.18, the metrics support a home advantage.

Despite this, the head-to-head record is a modest sample of just two matches since 2023, which saw Nancy fail to win either encounter. While this might suggest a challenge, the form and tactical evolution of the hosts seem more relevant. Nancy's ability to press and capitalize on turnovers should create several chances, especially against a backline that struggles under pressure.

The model's most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (10%), suggesting a tight affair but one where Nancy edges out on individual moments of quality. The over 2.5 goals probability sits slightly above the threshold at 51%, indicating a potential for goals, yet the model's leaning towards a low-scoring victory for the home side prevails. Nancy's forward line will be critical, with their wingers expected to stretch play and create space.

For bettors, there's clear value on Nancy at odds of 2.18 with LeoVegas, with a model-projected 9% edge. This aligns with their superior home form and tactical acumen. While the probability of both teams scoring is 55%, the smart play leans towards a narrow home win, perhaps 1-0 or 2-1, given Nancy's recent emphasis on structural solidity combined with offensive flair. The numbers don't lie, and they point to Nancy capitalizing on Guingamp's inconsistencies.

Nancy

Form WWLLW

Key players

Ilyes HousniFxG 0.18 · xT 0.36
Brandon BokangouFxG 0.63 · xT 0.03
Zakaria FdaouchLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.11

Guingamp

Form LDDWL

Key players

Stanislas KieltFxG 0.40 · xT 0.02
Amine HemiaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.01
Donatien GomisCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Nancy – Guingamp

Predicted score matrix

Guingamp →

Nancy →

0–07.0%

0–17.4%

0–24.6%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.8%

1–112.3%

1–27.1%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.8%

2–19.2%

2–25.4%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.0%

3–14.7%

3–22.8%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,54–1,18

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.00

Over 2,551%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Nancy to win50%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Nancy to win50%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Ilyes Housni to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Stanislas Maxime Tom Kielt to score24%
Dylan Louiserre to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Nancy50% probability@2.20BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
1 · Nancy50% probability@2.20NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
1 · Nancy50% probability@2.18LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nancy	X	2 · Guingamp
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 2.20	3.25	3.05
LeoVegas	EV+ 9% 2.18	3.35	2.95
Nordicbet	EV+ 10% 2.20	3.25	3.05

Odds updated 1 Oct, 07:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Nancy 0Draw 1Guingamp 1

Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nancy

Guingamp

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nancy (8–7)

Guingamp (10–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nancy

Guingamp

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nancy

Guingamp

The goalkeepers	Enzo Basilio (Nancy)	Adrian Ortola (Guingamp)
Saves	13	20
Save %	68%	63%
xG prevented	41%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nancy

Fixtures, form & tips

Guingamp

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nancy vs Guingamp according to our model?

The model gives Nancy a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nancy 50%, draw 27%, Guingamp 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.