01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Dijon or draw (1X)76%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Ligue 2Stade Gaston Gérard, Dijon10°14 km/h
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Dijonvs
MetzThe model's lean: 1 · Dijon (44%)
Dijon vs Metz · Ligue 2
1 · Dijon 44%X 28%28% Metz · 2
44%
28%
28%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Dijon – Metz
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Dijon’s 44% win probability casts them as favorites against Metz, yet the market offers an intriguing opportunity. The hosts have shown consistent form, reflected in their expected goals of 1.61 compared to the visitors' 1.05. With the most likely scorelines being 1-1 at 12% and 1-0 at 11%, the odds suggest a tight contest, but it leans heavily toward a home advantage.
Metz, holding a 28% chance of securing a win, are on the backfoot according to these numbers. The expected goals disparity underscores the struggle they may face in dismantling a relatively solid Dijon defense. While the market may not fully grasp this imbalance, the model’s lean towards Dijon reflects confidence in their ability to edge out the visitors, possibly by a single goal margin.
The anticipated 1-1 or 1-0 scorelines indicate a game that could hinge on fine margins. This setup doesn’t scream for an abundance of goals, with the over 2.5 goals sitting at a tepid 50%. The bookmakers are wary, pricing this as a coin flip, but the underlying metrics don’t suggest a high-scoring shootout.
As for both teams to score, the 52% probability slightly tilts toward a mutual breakthrough, but it’s hardly a foregone conclusion. Given the expected goals and model probabilities, a cautious approach to goals might be prudent, tipping the scale toward a game that fails to breach the 2.5-goal mark.
Where’s the value? The standout is backing Dijon to win at odds of 2.25 offered by Pinnacle. With the model probability leaning at 44%, there's a calculated edge here for those looking for a market oversight. A 1-0 or 2-1 home victory feels most plausible, underpinned by the data — a reflection of Dijon’s stronger position without overstating Metz’s challenge.
DijonForm DLDWW
Key players
- Adel LembezatLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.43
- Alexis N'TamackFxG 0.11 · xT 0.02
- Ismaïl BouleghchaRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.20
MetzForm DDWLD
Key players
- Jahyann PandoreFxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
- Idris MohamedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
- Pape Moussa FallFxG 0.63 · xT -0.04
Match prediction: Dijon – Metz
Predicted score matrix
Metz →
Dijon →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.4%
0–17.0%
0–23.9%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–010.9%
1–112.2%
1–26.2%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.1%
2–19.5%
2–25.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–04.9%
3–15.1%
3–22.7%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.8%
4+–12.9%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,61–1,05
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
–
Over 2,550%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Dijon or draw (1X)76%
- Under 2.5 goals50%
- Samy Olivier Chouchane to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Samy Olivier Chouchane to score24%
- Jessy Deminguet to be booked25%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dijon
Metz
Dijon (10–10)
Metz (10–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dijon
Metz
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dijon
Metz
| The goalkeepers | Paul Delecroix (Dijon) | Jonathan Fischer (Metz) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 26 |
| Save % | 69% | 81% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 50% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dijon vs Metz according to our model?
The model gives Dijon a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dijon 44%, draw 28%, Metz 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.