01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Nantes or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Ligue 2Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes12°3,3 mm20 km/h
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Nantesvs
ReimsThe model's lean: 1 · Nantes (41%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.35 (+1 %)
Nantes vs Reims · Ligue 2
1 · Nantes 41%X 30%29% Reims · 2
41%
30%
29%
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Analysis: Nantes – Reims
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Reims' impressive unbeaten run of 14 league matches sets the stage for a tense encounter against Nantes. The visitors have shown remarkable consistency, but this streak will be tested against a home side favored by the model at 41%. Despite Nantes holding the statistical edge, the prediction is tightly contested, with a mere 12% separating the probabilities. Such closely matched dynamics suggest that the game might hinge on small margins.
The most likely scoreline, a 1-1 draw with a 13% chance, underscores the competitive balance. Nantes' expected goals of 1.48 slightly surpasses Reims' 1.21, hinting at a modest edge in offensive potential. However, the potential for rain could dampen goal-scoring opportunities, already accounted for in the model's numbers. This weather factor may tip the scales towards a lower-scoring affair, despite both teams having a 55% chance to find the net.
Form is a crucial factor here. While Reims' unbeaten streak carries psychological weight, it's important to remember that both teams have reasons to be cautious. The hosts, buoyed by their higher win probability and playing on familiar turf, will look to exploit any defensive lapses. Yet, Reims' resilience makes a draw a real possibility, matching the model's second-most likely outcome at 30%.
With the over/under at a delicate 50% for over 2.5 goals, caution is advised. The sharp angle here leans towards a tight, possibly rain-affected contest, favoring a lower scoreline.
NantesForm LDWLW
Key players
- Herba GuirassyLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.08
- Killian CorredorFxG 0.37 · xT 0.24
- Johann Théo Tom LepenantRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
ReimsForm WWDWD
Key players
- Ange Martial TiaRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
- Yaya FofanaCAMxG 0.46 · xT 0.11
- Daouda GuindoLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Nantes – Reims
Predicted score matrix
Reims →
Nantes →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.2%
0–17.9%
0–25.0%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–09.7%
1–112.5%
1–27.4%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.4%
2–19.0%
2–25.4%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.4%
3–22.7%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,48–1,21
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,550%
@1.92
Over 2,550%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Nantes or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Bahmed Deuff to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Bahmed Deuff to score25%
- Ibrahima Sissoko to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.35PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Nantes | X | 2 · Reims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | EV+ 1% 3.35 | 3.15 |
Odds updated 1 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Key facts
- Reims are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Nantes
Reims
Nantes (9–13)
Reims (15–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Nantes
Reims
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Nantes
Reims
| The goalkeepers | Maxime Dupé (Nantes) | Tom Hulsmann (Reims) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 22 |
| Save % | 52% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Nantes vs Reims according to our model?
The model gives Nantes a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nantes 41%, draw 30%, Reims 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.