01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Red Star to win46%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Ligue 2Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand14°1,8 mm11 km/h
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Clermontvs
Red StarThe model's lean: 2 · Red Star (46%)
Clermont vs Red Star · Ligue 2
1 · Clermont 26%X 27%46% Red Star · 2
26%
27%
46%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Clermont – Red Star
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: In four recent meetings between these sides since 2023, Clermont have yet to register a win against Red Star, with the visitors taking one victory and three matches ending in a draw. While head-to-head records offer a glimpse into past encounters, the small sample size of these fixtures means that current form and expected goals are likely more reliable indicators of what might unfold.
Clermont, unbeaten in their last five league games, seem to have found a groove that keeps them sturdy, if not spectacular. They have proven difficult to beat, yet their struggle to convert draws into wins could be a concern against a Red Star side riding high on three consecutive victories. The visitors clearly have momentum, and their recent form suggests they are well-equipped to pose a significant challenge.
The model gives Red Star a 46% chance of winning, marking them as favorites, compared to Clermont’s 26%. With expected goals set at 1.46 for Red Star against Clermont’s 1.05, the numbers suggest a marginal edge to the visitors, aligning with their strong offensive output in recent games. Despite this, the probability of both teams finding the net stands at an intriguing 50%, hinting at a balanced contest where opportunities could be created and taken by either side.
Given the model probabilities, the most likely scorelines point towards either a 1-1 draw (13%) or a slim victory for Red Star, potentially at 0-1 (11%). Backing Red Star to edge this encounter seems a solid play given their form and statistical backing.
ClermontForm DDDDD
Key players
- Ethan Kena KabeyaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
- Ivan MbahiaRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Vital Manuel N'SimbaLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
Red StarForm DLWWW
Key players
- Kévin CabralFxG 0.28 · xT 0.03
- Damien DurandLWxG 0.47 · xT 0.24
- Kémo CisséRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Clermont – Red Star
Predicted score matrix
Red Star →
Clermont →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–111.5%
0–28.6%
0–34.2%
0–4+2.1%
1
1–08.2%
1–112.8%
1–29.1%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–04.5%
2–16.6%
2–24.8%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.3%
3–21.7%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,05–1,46
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.74
Over 2,546%
@2.07
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Red Star to win46%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Kévin Cabral to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Kévin Cabral to score27%
- Elyaz Zidane Fernández to be booked22%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Clermont | X | 2 · Red Star |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.50 | 3.15 | 2.02 |
| LeoVegas | 3.45 | 3.25 | 2.02 |
| Nordicbet | 3.50 | 3.15 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.52 | 3.34 | 2.10 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 15:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesClermont 0Draw 3Red Star 1
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Clermont Foot are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- Red Star come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Clermont
Red Star
Clermont (4–6)
Red Star (9–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Clermont
Red Star
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Clermont
Red Star
| The goalkeepers | Theo Guivarch (Clermont) | Gaetan Poussin (Red Star) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 21 |
| Save % | 72% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Clermont vs Red Star according to our model?
The model gives Red Star a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Clermont 26%, draw 27%, Red Star 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.