Ligue 2Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Étienne12°0,6 mm6 km/h

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    Saint-ÉtienneSaint-Étienne
    vs
    RodezRodez
    The model's lean: 1 · Saint-Étienne (57%)Best value by the model: 2 · Rodez @ 7.08 (+28 %)

    Saint-Étienne vs Rodez · Ligue 2

    1 · Saint-Étienne 57%X 25%18% Rodez · 2

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    Analysis: Saint-Étienne – Rodez

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Saint-Étienne's defensive discipline is likely to set the tone as they face Rodez, a team currently in a slump. The hosts have been formidable at home, winning 67% of their games all-time across 21 matches played. The numbers suggest a controlled, low-scoring encounter, but with the potential for Saint-Étienne to find the net twice. Expected goals of 2.03 for Saint-Étienne contrast with Rodez's 0.93, pointing toward a 2-0 victory for the hosts.

    Rodez is struggling, having lost their last three matches. This streak may weigh heavily on their morale, and they face a daunting task against an in-form home side. While the head-to-head record since 2023 is balanced with one win each and a draw, this small sample does little to overshadow current form trends. The visitors' recent performances suggest they might struggle to breach Saint-Étienne's defense, despite the model giving a 53% chance for both teams to score.

    The model sets the probability of a home win at 57%, reinforcing Saint-Étienne's upper hand. With a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, there's a hint of potential for more action, yet the predicted scorelines of 2-0 and 1-0 remain the more grounded expectations. A draw sits at 25% probability and offers value at odds of 4.75 with LeoVegas, presenting a tempting proposition for the cautious bettor.

    Perhaps the most intriguing bet lies with Rodez securing an upset, given the odds. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 6.4 for an away win, which is valued at 18% by the model. Although such an outcome seems unlikely, the substantial edge provides a strategic avenue for those willing to look beyond the apparent home dominance.

    Saint-ÉtienneSaint-Étienne
    Form WWWLD
    Key players
    • Augustine BoakyeRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18
    • Kévin PedroRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
    • Irvin Charly Jose CardonaRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.21
    RodezRodez
    Form WDLLL
    Key players
    • Ibrahima BaldéFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
    • Jordan MendesCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
    • Mathis TouhoFxG 0.37 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Saint-Étienne – Rodez

    Predicted score matrix

    Rodez →
    Saint-Étienne →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.5%
    0–14.5%
    0–22.2%
    0–30.7%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–010.3%
    1–110.1%
    1–24.5%
    1–31.4%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.7%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–07.2%
    3–16.7%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–05.8%
    4+–15.4%
    4+–22.5%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    2,03–0,93
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.65EV+13%
    Over 2,557%
    @1.43

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Saint-Étienne to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.91

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Saint-Étienne to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Irvin Charly Jose Cardona to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Irvin Charly Jose Cardona to score27%
    • Mathis Magnin to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Rodez18% probability@7.08PinnacleEV+28%reference odds
    • X · Draw25% probability@4.79PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
    • X · Draw25% probability@4.75LeoVegasEV+17%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Saint-ÉtienneX2 · Rodez
    Betsafe1.39
    EV+ 11%
    4.50
    EV+ 16%
    6.40
    LeoVegas1.38
    EV+ 17%
    4.75
    EV+ 13%
    6.25
    Nordicbet1.39
    EV+ 11%
    4.50
    EV+ 16%
    6.40
    Pinnacle1.39
    EV+ 18%
    4.79
    EV+ 28%
    7.08

    Odds updated 3 Oct, 20:36

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    3 matches
    Saint-Étienne 1Draw 1Rodez 1
    Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 2,3)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Rodez have lost 3 in a row.
    • Saint-Etienne win 67% of their home matches all-time (21 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Saint-Étienne
    Rodez
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Saint-Étienne (19–8)
    Rodez (14–16)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Saint-Étienne
    Áron Csongvai: 369 passningar, xT 0.34CsongvaiMaxime Bernauer: 303 passningar, xT 0.48BernauerSohaib Nair: 283 passningar, xT 0.35NairJulien Le Cardinal: 248 passningar, xT 0.35CardinalTamar Svetlin: 172 passningar, xT 0SvetlinKévin Pedro: 164 passningar, xT 0.27PedroZuriko Davitashvili: 144 passningar, xT 0.62DavitashviliAugustine Boakye: 119 passningar, xT 0.75BoakyeGautier Larsonneur: 100 passningar, xT 0.09LarsonneurIrvin Charly Jose Cardona: 79 passningar, xT 0.72CardonaJakob Breum Martinsen: 73 passningar, xT 0.36Martinsen
    Rodez
    Raphaël Lipinski: 316 passningar, xT 1.45LipinskiLoni Laurent: 254 passningar, xT 1.18LaurentMathis Magnin: 243 passningar, xT 0.45MagninJordan Mendes: 159 passningar, xT 0.45MendesDamjan Pavlović: 119 passningar, xT 0.21PavlovićAntonin Cartillier: 97 passningar, xT 0.6CartillierLucas Margueron: 90 passningar, xT 0.08MargueronJean Lambert Evan's Allan: 83 passningar, xT 0.88AllanRyan Ponti: 83 passningar, xT 0.27PontiCorentin Issanchou Roubiou: 50 passningar, xT 0.33RoubiouEnzo Crombez: 32 passningar, xT 0.03Crombez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Saint-Étienne
    Áron Csongvai: 369 passningar, xT 0.34CsongvaiMaxime Bernauer: 303 passningar, xT 0.48BernauerSohaib Nair: 283 passningar, xT 0.35NairJulien Le Cardinal: 248 passningar, xT 0.35CardinalTamar Svetlin: 172 passningar, xT 0SvetlinKévin Pedro: 164 passningar, xT 0.27PedroZuriko Davitashvili: 144 passningar, xT 0.62DavitashviliAugustine Boakye: 119 passningar, xT 0.75BoakyeGautier Larsonneur: 100 passningar, xT 0.09LarsonneurIrvin Charly Jose Cardona: 79 passningar, xT 0.72CardonaJakob Breum Martinsen: 73 passningar, xT 0.36Martinsen
    Rodez
    Raphaël Lipinski: 316 passningar, xT 1.45LipinskiLoni Laurent: 254 passningar, xT 1.18LaurentMathis Magnin: 243 passningar, xT 0.45MagninJordan Mendes: 159 passningar, xT 0.45MendesDamjan Pavlović: 119 passningar, xT 0.21PavlovićAntonin Cartillier: 97 passningar, xT 0.6CartillierLucas Margueron: 90 passningar, xT 0.08MargueronJean Lambert Evan's Allan: 83 passningar, xT 0.88AllanRyan Ponti: 83 passningar, xT 0.27PontiCorentin Issanchou Roubiou: 50 passningar, xT 0.33RoubiouEnzo Crombez: 32 passningar, xT 0.03Crombez
    The goalkeepersGautier Larsonneur (Saint-Étienne)Lucas Margueron (Rodez)
    Saves1112
    Save %58%52%
    xG prevented29%20%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Saint-Étienne
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Rodez
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Saint-Étienne vs Rodez according to our model?

    The model gives Saint-Étienne a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Saint-Étienne 57%, draw 25%, Rodez 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.