01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Nantes or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Ligue 2Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes16°1,5 mm14 km/h
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Nantesvs
ReimsThe model's lean: 1 · Nantes (41%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.35 (+1 %)
Nantes vs Reims · Ligue 2
1 · Nantes 41%X 30%29% Reims · 2
41%
30%
29%
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Analysis: Nantes – Reims
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Fourteen matches without a loss — that's the impressive streak Reims bring into their clash against Nantes. This run is a testament to their resilience and consistency. Yet, the statistical edge leans towards Nantes, who hold a 41% chance of victory according to the model, compared to Reims' 29%. This tension between form and probability sets up an intriguing encounter.
Despite Reims' unbeaten streak, the expected goals indicate a slight nod to Nantes, with Nantes predicted to net 1.48 compared to Reims' 1.21. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13%, with a narrow 1-0 victory for Nantes following closely at 10%. This suggests a tightly contested match, especially with the dampening effect of rain potentially skewing the game towards fewer goals. The weather, with its 6.3 mm of rain, has already been factored into the model's numbers, hinting at a game that could be decided by a single moment of brilliance or mistake.
There's a 50% probability for over 2.5 goals, but with both teams expected to score at 55%, a low-scoring draw or narrow win seems more plausible. The wet conditions are likely to suppress the flow of the game, aligning with the model's expectation of a modest scoreline. For the analytical bettor, this aligns well with the under 2.5 goals scenario, despite the numerical balance.
Betting enthusiasts should note that Bet365 offers odds of 2.40 on a Nantes victory. Given the model's lean towards Nantes and Reims' vulnerability despite their unbeaten run, this presents a potentially valuable opportunity. With the confluence of form, conditions, and statistical backing, those odds stand out as the sharpest angle for those looking to place a wager.
NantesForm LDWLW
Key players
- Herba GuirassyLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.08
- Killian CorredorFxG 0.37 · xT 0.24
- Johann Théo Tom LepenantRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
ReimsForm WWDWD
Key players
- Ange Martial TiaRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
- Yaya FofanaCAMxG 0.46 · xT 0.11
- Daouda GuindoLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Nantes – Reims
Predicted score matrix
Reims →
Nantes →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.2%
0–17.9%
0–25.0%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–09.7%
1–112.5%
1–27.4%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.4%
2–19.0%
2–25.4%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.4%
3–22.7%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,48–1,21
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,550%
@1.92
Over 2,550%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Nantes or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Bahmed Deuff to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Bahmed Deuff to score25%
- Ibrahima Sissoko to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.35PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Nantes | X | 2 · Reims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| LeoVegas | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | EV+ 1% 3.35 | 3.15 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 14:36
Statistics
Key facts
- Reims are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Nantes
Reims
Nantes (9–13)
Reims (15–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Nantes
Reims
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Nantes
Reims
| The goalkeepers | Maxime Dupé (Nantes) | Tom Hulsmann (Reims) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 22 |
| Save % | 52% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Nantes vs Reims according to our model?
The model gives Nantes a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nantes 41%, draw 30%, Reims 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.