Dijon vs Metz: Prediction & Odds (12 Oct 2026)

Ligue 212 October 2026Stade Gaston Gérard, Dijon12°6 km/h

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Dijon

4–2

Metz

The model's lean: 1 · Dijon (44%)

1 · Dijon 44%X 28%28% Metz · 2

44%

28%

Prediction summary

Final score 4–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Dijon vs Metz (Ligue 2, Monday, 12 October 2026): Dijon win 44%, draw 28%, Metz win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Dijon 1.61, Metz 1.05. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Dijon or draw 72%, Metz or draw 56%. Prediction updated Thursday, 1 October 2026.

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Analysis: Dijon – Metz

Oscar Nilsson · 11 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Dijon enter their clash against Metz as the statistically favored side, with a 44% probability of victory. Their superiority is reflected in the expected goals metric, which projects them to net around 1.61 goals compared to Metz's 1.05. This difference suggests that the hosts are more likely to break through the visitors' defense and secure a win. The most probable scorelines reinforce this notion, with 1-1 and 1-0 slightly edging out other possibilities. Despite these odds, the market seems to undervalue Dijon, offering a lucrative opportunity for bettors.

Metz, on the other hand, are not to be dismissed outright. The model assigns a 28% chance for both a draw and a Metz victory. This indicates that while the visitors have only a modest likelihood of winning, the potential for them to snatch a draw or even an unexpected win cannot be completely ignored. However, the visitors' lower expected goals figure suggests a struggle to significantly impact the game offensively.

The over/under 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 50%, indicating no strong lean towards a high or low-scoring match. With both teams to score hitting 52%, there’s a slight expectation for action at both ends of the pitch. However, given the narrow expected goal margins, a closely contested affair seems more probable than a blowout.

It's the current statistics that strongly favor the hosts, presenting a golden betting opportunity. With odds of 2.65 for a home win at Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet, where the model sees a 44% probability, there's a clear 16% value edge. This discrepancy provides not just a speculative punt but a statistically grounded wager that bettors should seriously consider.

Dijon

Form DLDWW

Key players

Samy Olivier ChouchaneCMxG 0.53 · xT 0.20
Ismaïl BouleghchaRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.20
Adel LembezatLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.43

Metz

Form DDWLD

Key players

Idris MohamedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
Jahyann PandoreFxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
Jean RuizCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05

Final score

4 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Dijon 44% · Draw 28% · Metz 28%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Dijon FCOBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,62fair 7,83-3 %

Hit

Matchresultat - MetzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,90fair 18,11-62 %

Miss

Match prediction: Dijon – Metz

Predicted score matrix

Metz →

Dijon →

0–07.4%

0–17.0%

0–23.9%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.9%

1–112.2%

1–26.2%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.5%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.9%

3–15.1%

3–22.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.8%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,61–1,05

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.18EV+3%

Over 2,550%

@1.71

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Dijon or draw (1X)76%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Dijon or draw (1X)76%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Samy Olivier Chouchane to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Samy Olivier Chouchane to score24%
Jessy Deminguet to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Dijon44% probability@2.81PinnacleEV+23%reference odds
1 · Dijon44% probability@2.70LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds
1 · Dijon44% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Dijon	X	2 · Metz
Betsafe	EV+ 16% 2.65	3.35	2.42
LeoVegas	EV+ 18% 2.70	3.45	2.38
Nordicbet	EV+ 16% 2.65	3.35	2.42
Pinnacle	EV+ 23% 2.81	3.50	2.50

Odds updated 12 Oct, 13:35

Odds movement

1+3 %

37 %32 %

2.74 → 2.81

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.50 → 3.50

2+2 %

41 %36 %

2.45 → 2.50

Over 2,5-1 %

58 %53 %

1.72 → 1.71

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 12/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dijon

Metz

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Dijon (10–10)

Metz (10–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dijon

Metz

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dijon

Metz

The goalkeepers	Paul Delecroix (Dijon)	Jonathan Fischer (Metz)
Saves	20	26
Save %	69%	81%
xG prevented	48%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Dijon

Fixtures, form & tips

Metz

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dijon vs Metz according to our model?

The model gives Dijon a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dijon 44%, draw 28%, Metz 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Dijon vs Metz?

The model expects 1.61 goals (xG) for Dijon and 1.05 for Metz, 2.66 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Dijon or draw (1X) 72%, Metz or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.