01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Korona Kielce or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Ekstraklasa9°12 km/h
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Korona KielceLow block & directvs
GKS KatowicePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Korona Kielce (40%)
Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice · Ekstraklasa
1 · Korona Kielce 40%X 28%32% GKS Katowice · 2
40%
28%
32%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice (Ekstraklasa, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Korona Kielce win 40%, draw 28%, GKS Katowice win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Korona Kielce 1.71, GKS Katowice 1.46. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Korona Kielce or draw 68%, GKS Katowice or draw 60%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Korona Kielce – GKS Katowice
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Korona Kielce’s recent edge in head-to-head matches against GKS Katowice might suggest a slight upper hand, but the model paints a more competitive picture. Despite having a small historical sample, Kielce’s 2W 1D 1L record against Katowice is overshadowed by the more pressing form statistics. The hosts lean on a direct style, and despite their low-block approach, their xGA per match of 1.5 actually fares better than Katowice’s 1.8, suggesting Kielce's defense is comparatively solid rather than fragile.
The expected goals (xG) balance is intriguing. Katowice generates 1.8 xG per match, surpassing Kielce’s 1.4, hinting at a potential offensive threat. Meanwhile, Kielce’s expected goals at 1.71 per game slightly outpace Katowice’s 1.46, suggesting they might capitalize on chances despite Katowice's pressing style. With both teams likely to score, the over 2.5 goals market, favored at 61%, seems a reasonable expectation.
GKS Katowice’s ability to create chances immediately after winning possession, with an xG of 0.33 within 8 seconds, gives them a notable edge in quick transitions, which could be a decisive factor if Katowice can impose their possession game efficiently.
Given the numbers, a 2-1 scoreline in favor of the hosts emerges as a plausible outcome, aligning with both the model’s probabilities and the data-driven expectation of goals on both sides. That said, a 1-1 draw at 11% remains the single most probable scoreline.
The sharpest betting angle is the over 2.5 goals market, where the combination of both teams’ styles presents a value opportunity, even if it’s no sure thing.
Korona KielceForm WLWLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #18xP/match #11Points #9
Key players
- Wiktor DlugoszRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.19
- Patrik HellebrandCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
- Slobodan RubežićCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
GKS KatowiceForm LLWWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #14xT #1xP/match #10Points #8
Key players
- Bartosz NowakFxG 0.34 · xT 0.34
- Lukas KlemenzCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
- Kacper LukasiakCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Korona Kielce – GKS Katowice
Predicted score matrix
GKS Katowice →
Korona Kielce →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–15.8%
0–24.5%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–06.9%
1–110.8%
1–27.7%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–06.1%
2–19.0%
2–26.5%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–03.5%
3–15.1%
3–23.7%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–02.2%
4+–13.2%
4+–22.3%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-27%
Expected goals
1,71–1,46
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.20
Over 2,561%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Korona Kielce or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Martin Christophe Jannick Remacle to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Ilya Shkurin to score24%
- Mateusz Kowalczyk to be booked24%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Korona Kielce | X | 2 · GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.10 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Nordicbet | 2.10 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 21:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 1.70 to 1.58 (−7%).
1+1 %
47 %42 %
2.08 → 2.10
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.55 → 3.55
2-2 %
33 %28 %
3.05 → 3.00
Over 2,5-7 %
59 %54 %
1.70 → 1.58
LeoVegas · 17 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesKorona Kielce 2Draw 1GKS Katowice 1
Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Korona Kielce
GKS Katowice
Korona Kielce (13–18)
GKS Katowice (20–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Korona Kielce
GKS Katowice
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Korona Kielce
GKS Katowice
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Korona Kielce | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 15 |
| xPoints | 14.5 | 13.5 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.33 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Korona Kielce | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 0.76 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 338 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 377 | 346 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.2 | 20.3 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Korona Kielce | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Other | Korona Kielce | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Xavier Dziekonski (Korona Kielce) | Gabriel Kobylak (GKS Katowice) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 29 |
| Save % | 58% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Legia Warszawa – Lech Poznań25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice according to our model?
The model gives Korona Kielce a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Korona Kielce 40%, draw 28%, GKS Katowice 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice?
The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Korona Kielce and 1.46 for GKS Katowice, 3.17 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Korona Kielce or draw (1X) 68%, GKS Katowice or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.