Ekstraklasa10°21 km/h

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    Motor LublinMotor LublinPossession & high press
    vs
    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie LubinLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Motor Lublin (51%)

    Motor Lublin vs Zagłębie Lubin · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Motor Lublin 51%X 23%26% Zagłębie Lubin · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Motor Lublin vs Zagłębie Lubin (Ekstraklasa, Friday, 23 October 2026): Motor Lublin win 51%, draw 23%, Zagłębie Lubin win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Motor Lublin 1.72, Zagłębie Lubin 1.11. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Motor Lublin or draw 74%, Zagłębie Lubin or draw 49%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Motor Lublin – Zagłębie Lubin

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    It's a clash of contrasting styles as Motor Lublin faces off against Zagłębie Lubin. With the home side leaning heavily on possession and a high press, they hope to unlock a Zagłębie side that prefers a low defensive block and direct counters. Motor's tactical approach might just find its match with Zagłębie's resilience, creating a potential deadlock that the numbers suggest could end 1-1, the most likely scoreline at 12%.

    However, the model shows a slight edge to the hosts with a 51% win probability, supported by their solid head-to-head record since 2023. With 3 wins and a draw against Zagłębie, Motor has shown they can handle their visitors. Yet, it’s a small sample size and form may speak louder. Despite sitting behind Zagłębie in the points tally, Motor's expected points (16.6) narrowly trump Zagłębie's (16.5), hinting at underlying strength not fully reflected in the standings.

    With expected goals pegged at 1.72 for Motor and 1.11 for the visitors, the match leans slightly toward over 2.5 goals (54%). Still, with 11.2 mm of rain predicted, conditions could dampen the attacking flair, which is already considered in the model. The high press of Motor Lublin might struggle to convert possession into goals under slippery conditions, aligning with the balanced probability of both teams scoring, set at 55%.

    For those seeking value, the home win at odds of 2.02 with LeoVegas presents a 4% edge over the model's 51% probability. Likewise, identical odds with Betsafe and Nordicbet offer a 3% edge. Given Motor Lublin's slight statistical and tactical advantages, these odds are worth considering for those who value calculated risk over chasing high returns.

    Motor LublinMotor Lublin
    Form LLDWW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #10xT #3xP/match #6Points #12
    Key players
    • Karol CzubakFxG 0.74 · xT 0.00
    • Tin PlavotićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.01
    • Christopher SimonCMxG 0.31 · xT 0.13
    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie Lubin
    Form WWLLW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #7xT #13xP/match #7Points #6
    Key players
    • Marcel RegulaFxG 0.31 · xT 0.11
    • Damian DabrowskiCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
    • Michalis KosidisLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Motor Lublin – Zagłębie Lubin

    Predicted score matrix

    Zagłębie Lubin →
    Motor Lublin →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–16.2%
    0–23.6%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–09.9%
    1–111.6%
    1–26.2%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–08.7%
    2–19.7%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–05.0%
    3–15.5%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–03.2%
    4+–13.5%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-06%
    Expected goals
    1,72–1,11
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.01
    Over 2,554%
    @1.80

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Motor Lublin to win51%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    41%

    Fair odds

    2.42

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Motor Lublin to win51%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Karol Czubak to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Karol Czubak to score29%
    • Filip Kocaba to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Motor Lublin51% probability@2.02LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · Motor Lublin51% probability@2.00BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Motor Lublin51% probability@2.00NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Motor LublinX2 · Zagłębie Lubin
    Betsafe
    EV+ 3%
    2.00    		3.353.45
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 4%
    2.02    		3.403.45
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 3%
    2.00    		3.353.45
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 1%
    1.96    		3.573.70

    Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:09

    Odds movement

    10 %
    51 %46 %

    1.96 → 1.96

    X0 %
    29 %24 %

    3.57 → 3.57

    20 %
    28 %23 %

    3.70 → 3.70

    Over 2,50 %
    55 %50 %

    1.79 → 1.80

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Motor Lublin 3Draw 1Zagłębie Lubin 0
    Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Motor Lublin
    Zagłębie Lubin
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Motor Lublin (15–19)
    Zagłębie Lubin (13–13)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Motor Lublin
    Filip Luberecki: 210 passningar, xT 0.46LubereckiYacine Bourhane: 205 passningar, xT 0.3BourhaneKamil Lukoszek: 198 passningar, xT 2.24LukoszekBartosz Bereszyński: 170 passningar, xT 0.33BereszyńskiMarek Bartos: 164 passningar, xT 0.31BartosTin Plavotić: 162 passningar, xT 0.12PlavotićGasper Tratnik: 119 passningar, xT 0.18TratnikChristopher Simon: 117 passningar, xT 0.34SimonMbaye Ndiaye: 92 passningar, xT 0.4NdiayeIvo Rodrigues: 86 passningar, xT 0.34RodriguesMarcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes: 78 passningar, xT 0.66Lopes
    Zagłębie Lubin
    Damian Dabrowski: 169 passningar, xT 0.58DabrowskiAleks Lawniczak: 146 passningar, xT 0.6LawniczakRoman Yakuba: 133 passningar, xT 0.5YakubaZlatan Alomerović: 128 passningar, xT 0.09AlomerovićMichal Nalepa: 120 passningar, xT 0.42NalepaDavid Čolina: 118 passningar, xT 0.33ČolinaFilip Kocaba: 107 passningar, xT 0.16KocabaMarcel Regula: 70 passningar, xT 0.2RegulaFilip Szymczak: 48 passningar, xT 0.04SzymczakJosip Corluka: 44 passningar, xT 0.53CorlukaMateusz Grzybek: 38 passningar, xT 0.33Grzybek
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Motor Lublin
    Filip Luberecki: 210 passningar, xT 0.46LubereckiYacine Bourhane: 205 passningar, xT 0.3BourhaneKamil Lukoszek: 198 passningar, xT 2.24LukoszekBartosz Bereszyński: 170 passningar, xT 0.33BereszyńskiMarek Bartos: 164 passningar, xT 0.31BartosTin Plavotić: 162 passningar, xT 0.12PlavotićGasper Tratnik: 119 passningar, xT 0.18TratnikChristopher Simon: 117 passningar, xT 0.34SimonMbaye Ndiaye: 92 passningar, xT 0.4NdiayeIvo Rodrigues: 86 passningar, xT 0.34RodriguesMarcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes: 78 passningar, xT 0.66Lopes
    Zagłębie Lubin
    Damian Dabrowski: 169 passningar, xT 0.58DabrowskiAleks Lawniczak: 146 passningar, xT 0.6LawniczakRoman Yakuba: 133 passningar, xT 0.5YakubaZlatan Alomerović: 128 passningar, xT 0.09AlomerovićMichal Nalepa: 120 passningar, xT 0.42NalepaDavid Čolina: 118 passningar, xT 0.33ČolinaFilip Kocaba: 107 passningar, xT 0.16KocabaMarcel Regula: 70 passningar, xT 0.2RegulaFilip Szymczak: 48 passningar, xT 0.04SzymczakJosip Corluka: 44 passningar, xT 0.53CorlukaMateusz Grzybek: 38 passningar, xT 0.33Grzybek

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMotor LublinZagłębie Lubin
    Points1218
    xPoints16.616.5
    xG per match1.91.4
    xGA per match1.61.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.30.27
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.290.17
    Playing styleMotor LublinZagłębie Lubin
    Build-up efficiency0.30.28
    Field tilt0.520.32
    xT per match1.31
    xTA per match0.960.91
    Won balls, offensive half3127
    Pressing intensity0.230.25
    Pressing efficiency0.280.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.23
    Entries into the box per match1314
    Entries into the box against1115
    Pass completion %0.760.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.65
    Passes per match335248
    Passes against per match362360
    Switches of play per match22.925.6
    Long balls per match2835
    Set piecesMotor LublinZagłębie Lubin
    xG from free kicks0.050.06
    Corners per match4.63.6
    Corners against per match3.15.6
    xG per corner0.050.05
    xGA per corner against0.10.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.20.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.57
    OtherMotor LublinZagłębie Lubin
    Throw-in control0.770.83
    The goalkeepersGasper Tratnik (Motor Lublin)Zlatan Alomerović (Zagłębie Lubin)
    Saves1729
    Save %61%74%
    xG prevented26%28%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Motor Lublin
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Zagłębie Lubin
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Motor Lublin vs Zagłębie Lubin according to our model?

    The model gives Motor Lublin a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Motor Lublin 51%, draw 23%, Zagłębie Lubin 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Motor Lublin vs Zagłębie Lubin?

    The model expects 1.72 goals (xG) for Motor Lublin and 1.11 for Zagłębie Lubin, 2.82 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Motor Lublin or draw (1X) 74%, Zagłębie Lubin or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 77%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.