Piast Gliwice vs KS Cracovia Prediction: Home win 42% (24 Oct 2026)

Ekstraklasa24 October 202610°14 km/h

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Piast GliwiceCounter-attacks & crosses

KS CracoviaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Piast Gliwice (42%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.60 (+17 %)

1 · Piast Gliwice 42%X 28%30% KS Cracovia · 2

42%

28%

30%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Piast Gliwice vs KS Cracovia (Ekstraklasa, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Piast Gliwice win 42%, draw 28%, KS Cracovia win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Piast Gliwice 1.85, KS Cracovia 1.54. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: Piast Gliwice or draw 70%, KS Cracovia or draw 58%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Piast Gliwice – KS Cracovia

Marcus Johansson · 19 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The 42% win probability for Piast Gliwice stands out immediately, reflecting their momentum with goals scored in eight consecutive league matches. Despite this, their xG per match falls short compared to KS Cracovia's, suggesting that while the hosts find the net, they might not create as many quality opportunities. The visitors, although slightly behind on points, have better xG and xGA figures, indicating stronger underlying performances.

Both teams adopt a counter-attack and cross-heavy style. This shared tactical approach could lead to a tightly contested affair, with each side looking to exploit the other's transitional vulnerabilities. The small head-to-head sample of four matches, favoring the hosts, carries less weight than current form and expected goals. The most likely scorelines (1-1 and 2-1) reinforce the notion of a close match, and with a 66% chance of both teams scoring and the same probability for over 2.5 goals, a goal-filled encounter is anticipated.

For those seeking value, the over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.72 with Betsafe offers a model-rated 19% edge, while a bolder punt on over 4.5 goals at 4.9 with either Betsafe or Nordicbet presents a sizable 24% edge. These options point to the potential for unexpected high scoring, despite the cautious lineups.

Piast Gliwice

Form WWLWD

League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #16xP/match #15Points #7

Key players

Jakub CzerwinskiCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
Quentin BoisgardCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.09
Juande RivasCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.05

KS Cracovia

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #8xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Ajdin HasicRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.29
Amir Al AmmariCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
Dijon KameriCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Piast Gliwice – KS Cracovia

Predicted score matrix

KS Cracovia →

Piast Gliwice →

0–03.7%

0–14.9%

0–24.0%

0–32.0%

0–4+1.1%

1–06.0%

1–19.9%

1–27.4%

1–33.8%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.8%

2–18.9%

2–26.8%

2–33.5%

2–4+1.9%

3–03.6%

3–15.5%

3–24.2%

3–32.2%

3–4+1.2%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.9%

4+–23.0%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,85–1,54

Both teams to score

66%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+25%

Under 2,534%

@2.10

Over 2,566%

@1.67EV+9%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Piast Gliwice or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Piast Gliwice or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Leandro Mário Baldé Sanca to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score66%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Leandro Mário Baldé Sanca to score28%
Mauro Perković to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.525% probability@4.60BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
Over 4.525% probability@4.60NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
Over 3.544% probability@2.58BetsafeEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Piast Gliwice	X	2 · KS Cracovia
Betsafe	EV+ 7% 2.55	3.35	2.52
LeoVegas	EV+ 7% 2.55	3.40	2.50
Nordicbet	EV+ 7% 2.55	3.35	2.52

Odds updated 21 Oct, 21:37

Odds movement

1+7 %

40 %35 %

2.38 → 2.55

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.35 → 3.40

2-7 %

38 %33 %

2.70 → 2.50

Over 2,5-5 %

57 %52 %

1.75 → 1.67

LeoVegas · 17 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Piast Gliwice 1Draw 3KS Cracovia 0

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

Key facts

Piast Gliwice have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Piast Gliwice

KS Cracovia

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Piast Gliwice (19–17)

KS Cracovia (13–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Piast Gliwice

KS Cracovia

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Piast Gliwice

KS Cracovia

The teams in numbers

Performance	Piast Gliwice	KS Cracovia
Points	17	12
xPoints	11.7	15.4
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.9	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.23

Playing style	Piast Gliwice	KS Cracovia
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.47	0.48
xT per match	0.81	1.2
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	23	26
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.25
Entries into the box per match	11	15
Entries into the box against	15	15
Pass completion %	0.78	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.68
Passes per match	402	321
Passes against per match	305	338
Switches of play per match	23.7	17.4
Long balls per match	24	24

Set pieces	Piast Gliwice	KS Cracovia
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.06
Corners per match	4.6	5.7
Corners against per match	7.6	5
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.65

Other	Piast Gliwice	KS Cracovia
Throw-in control	0.79	0.76

The goalkeepers	Domen Gril (Piast Gliwice)	Sebastian Madejski (KS Cracovia)
Saves	40	35
Save %	70%	70%
xG prevented	59%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Piast Gliwice

Fixtures, form & tips

KS Cracovia

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Piast Gliwice vs KS Cracovia according to our model?

The model gives Piast Gliwice a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Piast Gliwice 42%, draw 28%, KS Cracovia 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Piast Gliwice vs KS Cracovia?

The model expects 1.85 goals (xG) for Piast Gliwice and 1.54 for KS Cracovia, 3.39 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Piast Gliwice or draw (1X) 70%, KS Cracovia or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.