01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Pogoń Szczecin to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Ekstraklasa9°6,9 mm23 km/h
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Pogoń SzczecinLow block & directvs
Radomiak RadomCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Pogoń Szczecin (62%)
Pogoń Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom · Ekstraklasa
1 · Pogoń Szczecin 62%X 21%17% Radomiak Radom · 2
62%
21%
17%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Pogoń Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Pogoń Szczecin win 62%, draw 21%, Radomiak Radom win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Pogoń Szczecin 2.07, Radomiak Radom 1.00. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Pogoń Szczecin or draw 83%, Radomiak Radom or draw 38%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Pogoń Szczecin – Radomiak Radom
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Pogoń Szczecin enter this clash with an air of confidence, riding a four-match winning streak that has seen them solidify their status as contenders in the Ekstraklasa. Their attacking prowess is underscored by an expected goals tally of 2.07 for this encounter, a figure that dwarfs Radomiak Radom's 1.00. The direct style of play adopted by the hosts is proving effective, especially at home where they win 62% of their matches historically. Szczecin's momentum is palpable, and they will look to exploit a Radom side currently on a three-match losing skid.
Despite a poor head-to-head record against Radom, with only one draw and three losses in a small sample of four matches since 2023, Szczecin's current form and attacking metrics suggest the tide is set to turn. Their defense, often positioned low, could capitalize against Radom's counter-attacking, cross-heavy approach. The visitors' defensive frailties are evident, conceding an average of 2.3 goals against per match, and facing a side that is clinical at home could spell trouble.
The model's probabilities heavily favor Szczecin at 62%, with the most likely outcomes being either a 2-1 or 2-0 victory. Both teams to score is hovering at a 56% likelihood, but Radom's recent struggles make a clean sheet for the hosts plausible. The over 2.5 goals market leans at 59%, suggesting a potentially open game if Radom's defense cannot hold.
From a betting perspective, value lies with the home win. Odds of 1.8 at Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet present a 12% edge, given the model's confidence in Szczecin's victory. This is the sharpest angle here, riding on Szczecin's form and Radom's vulnerabilities. Expect the home team to reinforce their stronghold and claim a decisive win.
Pogoń SzczecinForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #15xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- Jordi Sánchez RibasFxG 0.29 · xT 0.11
- Darko ChurlinovFxG 0.52 · xT 0.11
- Jan BieganskiCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
Radomiak RadomForm WDLLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #17xP/match #14Points #16
Key players
- Rafal WolskiRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.16
- Guilherme Luiz Oliveira da SilvaFxG 0.34 · xT 0.08
- Jan GrzesikLWBxG 0.19 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: Pogoń Szczecin – Radomiak Radom
Predicted score matrix
Radomiak Radom →
Pogoń Szczecin →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–14.4%
0–22.3%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–09.3%
1–19.9%
1–24.8%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
2–25.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.9%
3–16.9%
3–23.4%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–05.7%
4+–15.7%
4+–22.9%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.2-010%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,07–1,00
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.20
Over 2,559%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Pogoń Szczecin to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Paul Omo Mukairu to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Paul Omo Mukairu to score32%
- Ibrahima Camará to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Pogoń Szczecin62% probability@1.75BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Pogoń Szczecin62% probability@1.75NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Pogoń Szczecin62% probability@1.73LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Pogoń Szczecin | X | 2 · Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 9% 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 7% 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 9% 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| Paddy Power | EV+ 5% 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 21:37
Odds movement
1-4 %
59 %49 %
1.80 → 1.73
X+1 %
29 %19 %
3.70 → 3.75
2+4 %
27 %17 %
3.85 → 4.00
Over 2,5-2 %
62 %52 %
1.64 → 1.60
LeoVegas · 16 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPogoń Szczecin 0Draw 1Radomiak Radom 3
Goals: 3–10 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.
Key facts
- Pogon Szczecin come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Radomiak Radom have lost 3 in a row.
- Pogon Szczecin win 62% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Pogoń Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
Pogoń Szczecin (15–6)
Radomiak Radom (9–23)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Pogoń Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Pogoń Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Pogoń Szczecin | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 8 |
| xPoints | 16.8 | 11.3 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.37 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.54 |
| Playing style | Pogoń Szczecin | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.96 | 0.77 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 292 | 317 |
| Passes against per match | 433 | 376 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.5 | 16.9 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 22 |
| Set pieces | Pogoń Szczecin | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 3.4 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| Other | Pogoń Szczecin | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Valentin Cojocaru (Pogoń Szczecin) | Filip Majchrowicz (Radomiak Radom) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 40 | 30 |
| Save % | 89% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Widzew Łódź – Górnik Zabrze23 October 2026
- Motor Lublin – Zagłębie Lubin23 October 2026
- Piast Gliwice – KS Cracovia24 October 2026
- Wisla Krakow – Raków Częstochowa24 October 2026
- Korona Kielce – GKS Katowice24 October 2026
- Jagiellonia Białystok – Wisła Płock25 October 2026
- Slask Wroclaw – Wieczysta Kraków25 October 2026
- Legia Warszawa – Lech Poznań25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Pogoń Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom according to our model?
The model gives Pogoń Szczecin a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pogoń Szczecin 62%, draw 21%, Radomiak Radom 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Pogoń Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
The model expects 2.07 goals (xG) for Pogoń Szczecin and 1.00 for Radomiak Radom, 3.07 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Pogoń Szczecin or draw (1X) 83%, Radomiak Radom or draw (X2) 38% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.