Widzew Łódź vs Górnik Zabrze Prediction: Away win 46% (23 Oct 2026)

Ekstraklasa23 October 202610°21 km/h

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Widzew ŁódźPossession & high press

Górnik ZabrzePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Górnik Zabrze (46%)

1 · Widzew Łódź 26%X 28%46% Górnik Zabrze · 2

26%

28%

46%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Widzew Łódź vs Górnik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa, Friday, 23 October 2026): Widzew Łódź win 26%, draw 28%, Górnik Zabrze win 46%. Expected goals (xG): Widzew Łódź 1.15, Górnik Zabrze 1.58. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Widzew Łódź or draw 54%, Górnik Zabrze or draw 74%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Widzew Łódź – Górnik Zabrze

Sofia Andersson · 19 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Górnik Zabrze's unbeaten streak in their last seven league matches looms large over this clash with Widzew Łódź. Despite the weather conditions hinting at a damp evening with potential rain affecting the flow of the game, the visitors come in with a tangible edge across multiple metrics. The model sees Zabrze as favorites with a 46% chance of winning, and the overwhelming statistical support makes them the clear pick here.

With Widzew Łódź's high-pressing style up against Górnik's possession control, the game might initially appear to be a clash of tactics. However, the numbers suggest that the visitors hold a decisive advantage. Not only do they lead in actual points (26 vs 10) and expected points (19.7 vs 15.1), but they also exhibit greater defensive solidity, conceding just 0.95 xGA per match compared to Widzew's 1.4.

While the most likely scoreline sits at 1-1, with a probability of 12%, the visitors have a significant chance of securing a 0-1 or 1-2 win, with probabilities of 10% and 9%, respectively. The expected goals tilt towards Górnik, 1.58 against Widzew's 1.15, underscoring their attacking prowess. The over 2.5 goals probability is a marginal 51%, suggesting a tight affair possibly decided by a single goal, likely in Zabrze's favor.

The small sample size in the head-to-head record (four matches) shows a slight advantage for Zabrze, who have not lost against Widzew since 2023. Yet, this matchup is more about current form, where the visitors clearly dominate. The real value lies in backing Górnik Zabrze at odds of 2.45 across multiple bookmakers like Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. With an 11% edge identified by the model, this bet stands out as a smart play for those seeking value.

Widzew Łódź

Form DDDLD

League ranking xG #11xGA #6xT #9xP/match #9Points #14

Key players

Juljan ShehuCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Przemysław WiśniewskiCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.10
Mario García AlvearLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.19

Górnik Zabrze

Form WWDWD

League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #7xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

José Manuel Sánchez GuillénCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
Rafał JanickiCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
Erik JanžaLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.31

Match prediction: Widzew Łódź – Górnik Zabrze

Predicted score matrix

Górnik Zabrze →

Widzew Łódź →

0–06.9%

0–110.0%

0–28.2%

0–34.3%

0–4+2.4%

1–07.2%

1–112.2%

1–29.4%

1–34.9%

1–4+2.8%

2–04.3%

2–16.8%

2–25.4%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.6%

3–01.7%

3–12.6%

3–22.1%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.6%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.0-28%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,15–1,58

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.88

Over 2,551%

@1.92

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Górnik Zabrze to win46%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Górnik Zabrze to win46%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Yvan Ikia Dimi to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Yvan Ikia Dimi to score28%
Giannis Papanikolaou to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Górnik Zabrze46% probability@2.40PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
2 · Górnik Zabrze46% probability@2.38BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Górnik Zabrze46% probability@2.38NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Widzew Łódź	X	2 · Górnik Zabrze
Betsafe	2.80	3.20	EV+ 8% 2.38
LeoVegas	2.80	3.30	EV+ 7% 2.35
Nordicbet	2.80	3.20	EV+ 8% 2.38
Pinnacle	2.87	3.41	EV+ 9% 2.40

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Widzew Łódź 0Draw 2Górnik Zabrze 2

Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

Key facts

Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Widzew Łódź

Górnik Zabrze

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Widzew Łódź (14–15)

Górnik Zabrze (20–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Widzew Łódź

Górnik Zabrze

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Widzew Łódź

Górnik Zabrze

The teams in numbers

Performance	Widzew Łódź	Górnik Zabrze
Points	10	26
xPoints	15.1	19.7
xG per match	1.5	1.7
xGA per match	1.4	0.95
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	0.15

Playing style	Widzew Łódź	Górnik Zabrze
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.43	0.57
xT per match	1.1	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	28	27
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.27
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.73	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.71
Passes per match	300	341
Passes against per match	335	363
Switches of play per match	26.3	20.4
Long balls per match	33	28

Set pieces	Widzew Łódź	Górnik Zabrze
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.1
Corners per match	6.2	5.6
Corners against per match	5.8	3.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.58
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.65

Other	Widzew Łódź	Górnik Zabrze
Throw-in control	0.72	0.72

The goalkeepers	Bartłomiej Drągowski (Widzew Łódź)	Philipp Schulze (Górnik Zabrze)
Saves	38	26
Save %	76%	72%
xG prevented	76%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Widzew Łódź

Fixtures, form & tips

Górnik Zabrze

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Widzew Łódź vs Górnik Zabrze according to our model?

The model gives Górnik Zabrze a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Widzew Łódź 26%, draw 28%, Górnik Zabrze 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Widzew Łódź vs Górnik Zabrze?

The model expects 1.15 goals (xG) for Widzew Łódź and 1.58 for Górnik Zabrze, 2.72 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Widzew Łódź or draw (1X) 54%, Górnik Zabrze or draw (X2) 74% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.