Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction: Home win 44% (24 Oct 2026)

Ekstraklasa24 October 2026

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Wisla KrakowPossession control

Raków CzęstochowaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Wisla Krakow (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Raków Częstochowa @ 3.80 (+17 %)

1 · Wisla Krakow 44%X 26%31% Raków Częstochowa · 2

44%

26%

31%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Wisla Krakow win 44%, draw 26%, Raków Częstochowa win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Wisla Krakow 1.60, Raków Częstochowa 1.44. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Wisla Krakow or draw 69%, Raków Częstochowa or draw 56%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Wisla Krakow – Raków Częstochowa

Marcus Johansson · 19 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

With Wisla Krakow's possession-heavy approach clashing against Rakow Czestochowa's counter-attacking and crossing game, the matchup promises tactical intrigue. The model gives the hosts a 44% chance of victory, reflecting their stronger form and greater efficiency in both scoring and defending. Notably, Wisla's xGA of 1.2 per match starkly contrasts with Rakow's leaky 2.3, which could be a key factor under their own terms of possession.

Despite these stats favoring Krakow, the numbers suggest a tight contest. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 and 2-1, with both teams expected to find the net. The expected goals tally of 3.04 in total (1.60 to 1.44) leans toward more than 2.5 goals being scored, with a 59% probability indicating attacking opportunities for both sides. Yet, while Wisla edges many statistics, Rakow's counter strategy might exploit any gaps left by the hosts' control-driven style.

From a betting perspective, value emerges in backing the visitors. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer Rakow at odds of 3.9 and LeoVegas at 3.85, with the model suggesting a 31% likelihood of an away upset. This brings a notable edge in favor of Rakow, despite Wisla's statistical upper hand.

Wisla Krakow

Form DWWLD

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #10xP/match #3Points #5

Key players

Alan UrygaCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.06
Jordi Sánchez RibasFxG 0.61 · xT 0.04
Raoul Luca GigerRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

Raków Częstochowa

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #18xT #4xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Erick Ouma OtienoLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.22
Fran TudorCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
Patryk MakuchFxG 0.45 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Wisla Krakow – Raków Częstochowa

Predicted score matrix

Raków Częstochowa →

Wisla Krakow →

0–05.1%

0–16.5%

0–24.9%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.2%

1–07.3%

1–111.3%

1–27.9%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.9%

2–06.1%

2–18.8%

2–26.4%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.3%

3–14.7%

3–23.4%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,60–1,44

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.38

Over 2,559%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Wisla Krakow or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Wisla Krakow or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Julius Ertlthaler to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Patryk Makuch to score23%
Kacper Duda to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Raków Częstochowa31% probability@3.80BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
2 · Raków Częstochowa31% probability@3.80NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
2 · Raków Częstochowa31% probability@3.75LeoVegasEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wisla Krakow	X	2 · Raków Częstochowa
Betsafe	1.78	3.75	EV+ 17% 3.80
LeoVegas	1.77	3.85	EV+ 15% 3.75
Nordicbet	1.78	3.75	EV+ 17% 3.80

Odds updated 22 Oct, 00:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 1.60 to 1.52 (−5%).

1-3 %

55 %50 %

1.83 → 1.77

X+1 %

26 %21 %

3.80 → 3.85

2+6 %

27 %22 %

3.55 → 3.75

Over 2,5-5 %

62 %57 %

1.60 → 1.52

LeoVegas · 24 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wisla Krakow

Raków Częstochowa

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wisla Krakow (17–14)

Raków Częstochowa (15–26)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wisla Krakow

Raków Częstochowa

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wisla Krakow

Raków Częstochowa

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wisla Krakow	Raków Częstochowa
Points	18	6
xPoints	19	9.9
xG per match	1.9	1.5
xGA per match	1.2	2.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.16

Playing style	Wisla Krakow	Raków Częstochowa
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.3
Field tilt	0.57	0.52
xT per match	1.1	1.2
xTA per match	0.88	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	27	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.26
Entries into the box per match	14	16
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.73
Passes per match	358	401
Passes against per match	327	315
Switches of play per match	22	27.3
Long balls per match	26	30

Set pieces	Wisla Krakow	Raków Częstochowa
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.01
Corners per match	5.7	4.9
Corners against per match	4.6	4.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.68

Other	Wisla Krakow	Raków Częstochowa
Throw-in control	0.76	0.74

The goalkeepers	Marcel Łubik (Wisla Krakow)	Kacper Trelowski (Raków Częstochowa)
Saves	42	39
Save %	78%	62%
xG prevented	61%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wisla Krakow

Fixtures, form & tips

Raków Częstochowa

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa according to our model?

The model gives Wisla Krakow a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wisla Krakow 44%, draw 26%, Raków Częstochowa 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?

The model expects 1.60 goals (xG) for Wisla Krakow and 1.44 for Raków Częstochowa, 3.04 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Wisla Krakow or draw (1X) 69%, Raków Częstochowa or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.