01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Amarante Futebol Clube or draw (1X)66%
- Under 3.5 goals80%
Liga Portugal 218°10 km/h
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Amarante Futebol Clubevs
PortimonenseThe model's lean: 1 · Amarante Futebol Clube (41%)
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Amarante Futebol Clube vs Portimonense · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Amarante Futebol Clube 41%X 32%27% Portimonense · 2
41%
32%
27%
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Analysis: Amarante Futebol Clube – Portimonense
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT:
41%—that's the probability the model assigns to Amarante Futebol Clube securing a win against Portimonense. It's a notable figure, especially when compared to Portimonense's meager 27% chance. The hosts are not only favored, but they also face a visiting side reeling from three consecutive losses. Despite this, the expected goals for both teams remain tight, with Amarante at 1.19 and Portimonense at 1.13.
The most likely scorelines underline a balanced contest: 1-1 leads at 14%, while both 1-0 and 0-1 follow at 11% each. With just a 41% probability for over 2.5 goals, a high-scoring affair seems unlikely. The match is shaping up to be a tense battle of fine margins, where any slight misstep could decide the outcome.
For those eyeing a betting angle, keep an eye on Amarante securing a narrow victory. Their opponents' poor form could prove decisive. The draw at 32% remains an intriguing possibility, but with Portimonense's struggles, backing the hosts aligns with both data and recent trends.
Amarante Futebol ClubeForm LDWLD
Key players
- Abdoul Gaimal Faissal ZangreCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
- Diogo Miguel Pereira CostaRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
- Edgar Melvin Andrade CostaFxG 0.16 · xT 0.00
PortimonenseForm WWLLL
Key players
- Joao ReisLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
- Samuel Neves BengueCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
- Diogo Rafael Gomes CabralFxG 0.12 · xT 0.00
Match prediction: Amarante Futebol Clube – Portimonense
Predicted score matrix
Portimonense →
Amarante Futebol Clube →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.2%
0–110.7%
0–26.3%
0–32.4%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–011.3%
1–113.6%
1–27.4%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.0%
2–17.9%
2–24.4%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–02.8%
3–13.1%
3–21.8%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-111%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,19–1,13
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
320%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,559%
@1.61
Over 2,541%
@2.28
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Amarante Futebol Clube or draw (1X)66%
- Under 2.5 goals59%
- Edgar Melvin Andrade Costa to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Edgar Melvin Andrade Costa to score21%
- Lucas De Bolle to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Amarante Futebol Clube41% probability@2.59PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Amarante Futebol Clube41% probability@2.55BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Amarante Futebol Clube41% probability@2.55NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Amarante Futebol Clube | X | 2 · Portimonense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.72 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.72 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 6% 2.59 | 3.05 | 2.86 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 18:02
Statistics
Key facts
- Portimonense SC have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Amarante Futebol Clube
Portimonense
Amarante Futebol Clube (5–9)
Portimonense (2–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Amarante Futebol Clube
Portimonense
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Amarante Futebol Clube
Portimonense
| The goalkeepers | Diogo Guilhermino Babo Figueiredo (Amarante Futebol Clube) | Eduardo dos Santos Haesler (Portimonense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 11 |
| Save % | 65% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 33% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Amarante Futebol Clube vs Portimonense according to our model?
The model gives Amarante Futebol Clube a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Amarante Futebol Clube 41%, draw 32%, Portimonense 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.