01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Benfica B or draw (1X)64%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Liga Portugal 220°12 km/h
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Benfica Bvs
FelgueirasThe model's lean: 1 · Benfica B (36%)Soft draw
Benfica B vs Felgueiras · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Benfica B 36%X 30%34% Felgueiras · 2
36%
30%
34%
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Analysis: Benfica B – Felgueiras
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The odds claim ("Operators like Bet365 offer odds of 3.20 for the stalemate") is not supported by the provided facts.
CORRECTED TEXT:
The head-to-head between Benfica B and Felgueiras is a tight affair, with the hosts slightly edging the matchups since 2023, boasting two wins, one draw, and one loss. However, with only four games in the sample, there's not enough data to weigh heavily against current form and expected goals. The model gives Benfica B a slight edge at 36%, emphasizing the balance in this matchup.
Looking at recent performances, both teams are similarly matched on paper. Benfica B's expected goals of 1.25 barely eclipse Felgueiras' 1.23, illustrating a matchup where neither side is likely to dominate. The model's most probable outcomes reflect this parity, with a 1-1 draw being the favorite at 13%, followed by two equally likely 1-0 results in either direction at 10% each. The slim margin between the two teams' chances suggests a cagey affair.
The market predicts a relatively low-scoring contest, with an over 2.5 goals probability of just 45%. This aligns with the expected goals and most likely scorelines. The likelihood of both teams finding the back of the net stands at 51%, hinting at a balanced battle where defenses might have the upper hand but are not impenetrable.
For punters seeking value, the draw at 30% might be worth exploring, given the closely matched probabilities and historical results. While Benfica B holds a marginal favor in the model, the statistical deadlock suggests that backing the draw could be the sharp play here, rather than picking a winner in this finely poised matchup.
Benfica BForm WWLLW
Key players
- Francisco Bernardes Freitas NetoLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
- Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraCAMxG 0.79 · xT 0.16
- Daniel Armando Fonseca da Silva BanjaquiRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
FelgueirasForm DDWLL
Key players
- Mario Rivas ViondiFxG 0.26 · xT 0.05
- Rolando António Pereira Rocha AlmeidaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
- Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida MartinsCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Benfica B – Felgueiras
Predicted score matrix
Felgueiras →
Benfica B →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.8%
0–19.9%
0–26.4%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–010.1%
1–113.3%
1–27.9%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.5%
2–18.0%
2–24.9%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–02.7%
3–13.3%
3–22.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.4%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,25–1,23
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
–
Over 2,545%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Benfica B or draw (1X)64%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Tiago Dias Freitas to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Tiago Dias Freitas to score25%
- Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins to be booked25%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesBenfica B 2Draw 1Felgueiras 1
Goals: 10–7 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Benfica B
Felgueiras
Benfica B (6–4)
Felgueiras (5–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Benfica B
Felgueiras
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Benfica B
Felgueiras
| The goalkeepers | Diogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira (Benfica B) | Mateus Pasinato (Felgueiras) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 14 |
| Save % | 92% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Benfica B vs Felgueiras according to our model?
The model gives Benfica B a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica B 36%, draw 30%, Felgueiras 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.