01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lusitania FC or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Liga Portugal 218°11 km/h
Läs på svenskaLU
Lusitania FCvs
ChavesThe model's lean: 1 · Lusitania FC (41%)
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Lusitania FC vs Chaves · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Lusitania FC 41%X 29%30% Chaves · 2
41%
29%
30%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Lusitania FC – Chaves
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Lusitania FC's recent form paints an intriguing picture against Chaves, with the hosts riding a wave of three consecutive victories. This momentum is likely to influence both tactics and morale as they look to assert themselves at home. The model leans towards Lusitania FC with a 41% probability of victory, hinting at a slight edge that could be decisive if they maintain their streak.
Chaves, with a 30% chance of winning, will need to focus on their strengths, perhaps looking to exploit the flanks or capitalize on quick transitions. Their expected goals tally of 1.18 suggests they may struggle to break down a Lusitania defense buoyed by recent success. However, the 1-1 scoreline emerges as the most likely outcome, reflecting both teams' capacity to find the net but also the potential for a stalemate.
The expected goals figures (Lusitania 1.43, Chaves 1.18) suggest a closely contested match with potential for goals, although not overwhelmingly so. The 48% likelihood of over 2.5 goals indicates this match might sit on the threshold, where a single clinical finish or defensive lapse could tip the scales.
Current form and the model's metrics provide a clearer lens. Lusitania's recent run of victories subtly shifts the balance in their favor, even if the draw remains a strong contender.
Lusitania FC
Form WDWWW
Key players
- Tiago Daniel Rodrigues DiasLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16
- Dylan João Raymond CollardCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
- João Pedro Pereira SilvaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.00
ChavesForm WLLLW
Key players
- Andre RodriguesRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.14
- Roberto Porfírio Maximiano RodrigoFxG 0.22 · xT -0.01
- Leandro Santos do NascimentoRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Lusitania FC – Chaves
Predicted score matrix
Chaves →
Lusitania FC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.7%
0–18.3%
0–25.1%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.2%
1–112.8%
1–27.3%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.5%
2–18.9%
2–25.2%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.6%
3–14.2%
3–22.5%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,43–1,18
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.66
Over 2,548%
@2.18EV+4%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lusitania FC or draw (1X)69%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- João Pedro Palma Santos to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- João Pedro Palma Santos to score27%
- Pedro Nuno Almeida Pinho to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Lusitania FC41% probability@2.79PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- 1 · Lusitania FC41% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
- 1 · Lusitania FC41% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lusitania FC | X | 2 · Chaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 12% 2.72 | 2.75 | 2.72 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 12% 2.72 | 2.75 | 2.72 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 15% 2.79 | 2.81 | 2.87 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:04
Statistics
Key facts
- Lusitania FC come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lusitania FC
Chaves
Lusitania FC (9–4)
Chaves (2–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lusitania FC
Chaves
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lusitania FC
Chaves
| The goalkeepers | Vitor Hugo Batista Araujo de Mendonca (Lusitania FC) | João Nuno Figueiredo Valido (Chaves) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 8 |
| Save % | 78% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 65% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lusitania FC vs Chaves according to our model?
The model gives Lusitania FC a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lusitania FC 41%, draw 29%, Chaves 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.