01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Penafiel to win49%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Liga Portugal 217°16 km/h
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Penafielvs
AVSThe model's lean: 1 · Penafiel (49%)Best value by the model: 2 · AVS @ 4.38 (+1 %)
Penafiel vs AVS · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Penafiel 49%X 28%23% AVS · 2
49%
28%
23%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Penafiel – AVS
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Four straight wins for Penafiel hint at a team in fine form, but the market may be underestimating them. The model gives the hosts a 49% chance of victory, leaning towards a 1-0 scoreline as the most probable outcome at 13%. With expected goals pegged at 1.54 for Penafiel and 0.88 for AVS, it's clear the hosts are more likely to find the net.
Despite their lower win probability of 23%, AVS shouldn't be dismissed outright. However, given Penafiel's current scoring streak, having found the back of the net in 11 consecutive league matches, the visitors face an uphill battle. The over/under odds for 2.5 goals are at 44%, suggesting a less goal-heavy affair might be on the cards. The model also indicates a 46% chance for both teams to score, implying the away side might struggle to break through.
Penafiel's recent performance metrics and the model's backing make a compelling case for their win. At odds of 2.10 with Betway, this presents a potential value opportunity for those looking to back the hosts. Variability in form and short head-to-head data support the stance of a closely contested match with Penafiel having the edge.
PenafielForm LWWWW
Key players
- Miguel OliveiraUnknownxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
- João Gonçalo Teixeira PintoRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.08
- Antonio David Álvarez ReyFxG 0.28 · xT 0.03
AVSForm LDWLD
Key players
- Rodrigo Cunha Pereira de PinhoFxG 0.28 · xT 0.04
- Abdoulaye Keita KeitaRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
- Tunde AkinsolaRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Penafiel – AVS
Predicted score matrix
AVS →
Penafiel →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.2%
0–17.5%
0–23.5%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–013.3%
1–112.4%
1–25.3%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.5%
2–19.3%
2–24.1%
2–31.2%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–05.4%
3–14.8%
3–22.1%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.9%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,54–0,88
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.68
Over 2,544%
@2.15
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Penafiel to win49%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Raúl Toni Alcaina Fenollosa to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Raúl Toni Alcaina Fenollosa to score27%
- Roni Medeiros de Moura to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · AVS23% probability@4.38PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Penafiel | X | 2 · AVS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Nordicbet | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 3.30 | EV+ 1% 4.38 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:04
Statistics
Key facts
- Penafiel come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Penafiel have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Penafiel
AVS
Penafiel (11–2)
AVS (4–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Penafiel
AVS
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Penafiel
AVS
| The goalkeepers | Miguel Oliveira (Penafiel) | Daniel Rebollo Franco (AVS) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 32 |
| Save % | 89% | 87% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 82% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Vizela – Sporting CP II10 October 2026
- Tondela – Torreense10 October 2026
- Amarante Futebol Clube – Portimonense10 October 2026
- Leixões – Porto B10 October 2026
- Farense – Feirense11 October 2026
- Lusitania FC – Chaves11 October 2026
- Benfica B – Felgueiras11 October 2026
- União de Leiria – Academica11 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Penafiel vs AVS according to our model?
The model gives Penafiel a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Penafiel 49%, draw 28%, AVS 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.