01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Vizela to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
Liga Portugal 218°10 km/h
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Vizelavs
SP
Sporting CP IIThe model's lean: 1 · Vizela (48%)
Vizela vs Sporting CP II · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Vizela 48%X 28%25% Sporting CP II · 2
48%
28%
25%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Vizela – Sporting CP II
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The clash between Vizela and Sporting CP II sees the home side step onto the pitch with a notable statistical edge, reflected in the 48% probability of a win. With the model favoring Vizela, the expectation is a tight contest, leaning towards a narrow victory or a low-scoring draw. The expected goals figures of 1.36 for the hosts against 1.03 for the visitors underscore a match likely defined by cautious play and limited clear-cut chances.
The most probable outcomes, 1-1 at 13% and 1-0 at 12%, paint a picture of a game where goals may be hard to come by. The likelihood of a stalemate at 0-0 is not far behind at 10%, suggesting that both defenses could have the upper hand. These numbers align with the over 2.5 goals probability sitting at just 43%, indicating a tilt towards an under outcome. The expectation is for each team to approach the game with a balanced focus, carefully managing risk rather than engaging in an all-out attacking battle.
Sporting CP II faces an uphill battle with only a 25% chance of claiming a victory away from home. Their outlook is further clouded by the model's lean towards a home win, driven by Vizela's higher probability and expected goals figure. Essentially, the statistical model's output weighs more significantly in this scenario.
Value does emerge in the odds if bookmakers offer Vizela at a reasonable price, perhaps around even money or slightly better. The data suggests they're the likelier side to edge a win. While caution is always warranted in betting, the model's lean towards the hosts signals a promising angle for those seeking to align with the numbers.
VizelaForm LDWWD
Key players
- Matías Rafael Lacava GonzálezFxG 0.26 · xT 0.16
- Jean Pierre RhynerCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
- Miguel PiresCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
Sporting CP II
Form WWLW
Key players
- Mauro Meireles CoutoRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.16
- Eduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira FelicíssimoCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Rafael Ribeiro MotaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Vizela – Sporting CP II
Predicted score matrix
Sporting CP II →
Vizela →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.5%
0–19.0%
0–24.8%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–012.1%
1–113.2%
1–26.6%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.5%
2–18.7%
2–24.5%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.9%
3–14.0%
3–22.0%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–11.8%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,36–1,03
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
121%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,557%
@1.70
Over 2,543%
@2.12
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Vizela to win48%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Ângelo Pelegrinelli Neto to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Ângelo Pelegrinelli Neto to score32%
- Eduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Vizela48% probability@2.18PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Vizela48% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- 1 · Vizela48% probability@2.12NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Vizela | X | 2 · Sporting CP II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 2.18 | 3.34 | 3.26 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:04
Odds movement
1-4 %
45 %40 %
2.27 → 2.18
X0 %
31 %26 %
3.33 → 3.34
2+6 %
32 %27 %
3.09 → 3.26
Over 2,50 %
47 %42 %
2.12 → 2.12
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 04/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Vizela
Sporting CP II
Vizela (7–4)
Sporting CP II (4–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Vizela
Sporting CP II
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Vizela
Sporting CP II
| The goalkeepers | Antonio Gomis Alemañ (Vizela) | Guilherme Meireles Pires (Sporting CP II) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 7 |
| Save % | 81% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Vizela vs Sporting CP II according to our model?
The model gives Vizela a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vizela 48%, draw 28%, Sporting CP II 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.