Leixões vs Porto B Prediction: Home win 60% (10 Oct 2026)

Liga Portugal 210 October 202618°12 km/h

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Leixões

Porto B

The model's lean: 1 · Leixões (60%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.90 (+2 %)

1 · Leixões 60%X 24%16% Porto B · 2

60%

24%

16%

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Analysis: Leixões – Porto B

Anna Karlsson · 3 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sixty percent. That’s the standout number as Leixões prepare to host Porto B, underscoring the hosts as clear favorites in this Liga Portugal 2 clash. The model is firmly in Leixões' corner, reflecting a combination of their robust expected goals tally of 1.90 and a head-to-head edge, albeit over a small sample of just four games where they've triumphed thrice. This edge in historical matchups, while notable, carries less weight than the compelling form and metrics this season.

The visitors face an uphill battle, with only a 16% chance of snatching a win. Their expected goals of just 0.92 reveal a lack of firepower in this head-to-head slugfest. For punters, the prospects of a draw at 24% suggest limited appeal, especially when juxtaposed with the host's consistent form and attacking potential.

For bettors, the value resides with the bookmaker offering odds favoring a Leixões victory. While the over 2.5 goals market sits at 53%, the model leans towards a lower-scoring affair with a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline, indicating a cautious approach to the goal market. The value bet shines in backing Leixões, especially if the odds are attractive enough to capitalize on their dominant form.

Leixões

Form WLWWD

Key players

Bryan Giovanni Róchez MejíaFxG 0.38 · xT 0.03
Simão Pedro Soares AzevedoLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.32
Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.11

Porto B

Form LWLLD

Key players

Trofim MelnichenkoFxG 0.35 · xT 0.03
Antonio RibeiroCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Luis GomesCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Leixões – Porto B

Predicted score matrix

Porto B →

Leixões →

0–06.3%

0–15.2%

0–22.5%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.0%

1–110.7%

1–24.8%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.8%

2–19.9%

2–24.5%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.8%

3–16.3%

3–22.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–05.0%

4+–14.6%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-011%
2.2-011%
3.1-111%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

1,90–0,92

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,547%

@1.88

Over 2,553%

@1.90EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Leixões to win60%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Leixões to win60%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Luccas Paraizo Feitosa to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Luccas Paraizo Feitosa to score31%
António Teixeira Ribeiro to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.553% probability@1.90PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
Over 2.553% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
Over 2.553% probability@1.88NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Leixões	X	2 · Porto B
Betsafe	1.55	3.75	5.50
Nordicbet	1.55	3.75	5.50
Pinnacle	1.56	3.95	5.63

Odds updated 4 Oct, 07:01

Odds movement

10 %

62 %57 %

1.55 → 1.56

X+2 %

26 %21 %

3.86 → 3.95

2+2 %

19 %14 %

5.52 → 5.63

Over 2,5-1 %

52 %47 %

1.93 → 1.90

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Leixões 3Draw 0Porto B 1

Goals: 9–4 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Leixões

Porto B

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Leixões (8–6)

Porto B (4–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Leixões

Porto B

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Leixões

Porto B

The goalkeepers	Igor Stefanovic (Leixões)	João de Oliveira Afonso (Porto B)
Saves	11	17
Save %	65%	61%
xG prevented	41%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Leixões

Fixtures, form & tips

Porto B

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Leixões vs Porto B according to our model?

The model gives Leixões a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leixões 60%, draw 24%, Porto B 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.