01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Farense to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Liga Portugal 222°16 km/h
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Farensevs
FeirenseThe model's lean: 1 · Farense (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Feirense @ 4.18 (+2 %)
Farense vs Feirense · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Farense 47%X 29%24% Feirense · 2
47%
29%
24%
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Analysis: Farense – Feirense
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Feirense's current form is nothing short of dismal, having lost five consecutive matches. This streak casts a long shadow over their visit to Farense, a side that has shown consistency and stability at home. The hosts are favorites with a 47% chance of winning according to the model, and they’ll likely capitalize on the visitors' vulnerabilities.
Farense have been defensively sound, which aligns with their expected goals of 1.55, compared to Feirense's 1.01. The most probable outcomes are a tight 1-1 or a narrow 1-0 victory for the home side, both with a 12% probability. This suggests a match where Farense's defense might just edge out Feirense's struggling attack. Given the visitors' poor form, a 1-0 scoreline seems particularly plausible.
It's worth acknowledging the small head-to-head sample, with only two matches between the sides since 2023. Here, Feirense have a slight edge with one win and one draw. However, these past results weigh less in the analysis than the current form and expected goals, which heavily favor Farense.
The model indicates a slight leaning towards under 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%, suggesting a low-scoring affair. The likelihood of both teams finding the net sits at 51%, nearly a toss-up, but not enough to sway the decision from a defensively disciplined approach.
While no outcome is guaranteed in football, the data points towards a pragmatic lean on Farense given Feirense's ongoing struggles.
FarenseForm WDLLD
Key players
- Derick Theodoro Santos PoloniFxG 0.76 · xT 0.11
- André Miguel Arsénio CandeiasRWxG 0.57 · xT -0.01
- Carlos Alexandre Reis PintoRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.24
FeirenseForm LLLLL
Key players
- Antonio Leal MateosCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
- Pedro Manuel da Mota PintoCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
- Luiz Benmuyal ReisRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Farense – Feirense
Predicted score matrix
Feirense →
Farense →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.1%
0–17.4%
0–24.0%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–011.6%
1–112.5%
1–26.1%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.3%
2–19.4%
2–24.8%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.8%
3–14.8%
3–22.5%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.6%
4+–12.7%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,55–1,01
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@1.68
Over 2,547%
@2.15EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Farense to win47%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Bruno Miguel Vicente dos Santos to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Bruno Miguel Vicente dos Santos to score29%
- Tiago Augusto Oliveira Castro to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Feirense24% probability@4.18PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- Over 2.547% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- Over 2.547% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Farense | X | 2 · Feirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.41 | EV+ 2% 4.18 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:04
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesFarense 0Draw 1Feirense 1
Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 0,5)
Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Feirense have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Farense
Feirense
Farense (8–7)
Feirense (1–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Farense
Feirense
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Farense
Feirense
| The goalkeepers | Fabijan Buntić (Farense) | Diego Altube Suárez (Feirense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 22 |
| Save % | 79% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 32% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Farense vs Feirense according to our model?
The model gives Farense a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Farense 47%, draw 29%, Feirense 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.