01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Benfica B to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Liga Portugal 220°9 km/h
Läs på svenska
Benfica BPossession controlvs
ChavesCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Benfica B (46%)
Benfica B vs Chaves · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Benfica B 46%X 27%27% Chaves · 2
46%
27%
27%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Benfica B vs Chaves (Liga Portugal 2, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Benfica B win 46%, draw 27%, Chaves win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Benfica B 1.62, Chaves 1.20. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Benfica B or draw 73%, Chaves or draw 54%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Benfica B – Chaves
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Benfica B enters the clash with a clear statistical edge, having won three out of four recent head-to-head encounters against Chaves since 2023. Despite the small sample size, the home team's form and expected goals profile suggest an advantage. Benfica B's possession-based approach contrasts with Chaves' reliance on counter-attacks and crosses, a dynamic that favors the hosts' control of the game.
With Benfica B generating an average of 1.5 xG per match compared to Chaves' 0.9, the hosts seem more capable of creating scoring opportunities. However, defensively, Chaves holds a slight edge, conceding 1.2 xGA per match against Benfica B's 1.7. This defensive resilience might be tested against Benfica B's attacking pressure.
The model's probability gives Benfica B a 46% chance of victory, reinforced by their 13 points versus Chaves' 5. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 hint at a close contest, with over 2.5 goals landing at 54% and both teams to score at 56%. The undercurrent of tension here lies in the balance of Benfica B's attacking proficiency against Chaves' sturdy defense. With an eye on value, consider Benfica B at odds of 2.17 on Bet365, offering a calculated wager on the hosts to edge it.
Benfica BForm DLLWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #17xT #2xP/match #10Points #5
Key players
- Joao FonsecaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.19
- Miguel Lebre Monteiro FigueiredoCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
- Olívio Leonardo Veloso das Neves ToméLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.16
ChavesForm DLWLD
League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #9xP/match #13Points #17
Key players
- Bruno RodriguesCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
- Talysson Moreira ReisCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
- Andre RodriguesCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Benfica B – Chaves
Predicted score matrix
Chaves →
Benfica B →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–16.8%
0–24.3%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–09.3%
1–111.9%
1–26.9%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.8%
2–19.4%
2–25.6%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.2%
3–15.1%
3–23.1%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–13.0%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,62–1,20
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.00
Over 2,554%
@1.80
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Benfica B to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Stevan Pedro Dores Manuel to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Stevan Pedro Dores Manuel to score26%
- Gilberto García Roa to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Benfica B46% probability@2.39PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- 1 · Benfica B46% probability@2.32BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- 1 · Benfica B46% probability@2.32NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Benfica B | X | 2 · Chaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 8% 2.32 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 8% 2.32 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 11% 2.39 | 3.41 | 2.85 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 05:59
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesBenfica B 3Draw 1Chaves 0
Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Benfica B
Chaves
Benfica B (8–5)
Chaves (6–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Benfica B
Chaves
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Benfica B
Chaves
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Benfica B | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 5 |
| xPoints | 8.7 | 8.1 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.12 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Benfica B | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 372 | 328 |
| Passes against per match | 297 | 281 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.1 | 30.3 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Benfica B | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| Other | Benfica B | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Diogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira (Benfica B) | João Nuno Figueiredo Valido (Chaves) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 16 |
| Save % | 91% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 60% | 60% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Tondela – Felgueiras30 October 2026
- Leixões – Sporting CP II31 October 2026
- Amarante Futebol Clube – Porto B31 October 2026
- União de Leiria – AVS31 October 2026
- Portimonense – Torreense31 October 2026
- Vizela – Academica1 November 2026
- Lusitania FC – Farense1 November 2026
- Penafiel – Feirense2 November 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Benfica B vs Chaves according to our model?
The model gives Benfica B a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica B 46%, draw 27%, Chaves 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Benfica B vs Chaves?
The model expects 1.62 goals (xG) for Benfica B and 1.20 for Chaves, 2.83 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Benfica B or draw (1X) 73%, Chaves or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.