Portimonense vs Torreense Prediction: Home win 35% (31 Oct 2026)

Liga Portugal 231 October 202619°12 km/h

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PortimonensePossession control

TorreenseBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Portimonense (35%)Soft draw

1 · Portimonense 35%X 32%33% Torreense · 2

35%

32%

33%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Portimonense vs Torreense (Liga Portugal 2, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Portimonense win 35%, draw 32%, Torreense win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Portimonense 1.26, Torreense 1.24. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Portimonense or draw 67%, Torreense or draw 65%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Portimonense – Torreense

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The tension lies in the model's razor-thin edge, giving Portimonense a slight nod with a 35% victory probability against Torreense's 33%. These odds, along with the model's lean towards the hosts, suggest a close contest. With expected goals nearly identical at 1.26 for Portimonense and 1.24 for Torreense, a low-scoring draw like 1-1 emerges as the most plausible outcome. Both teams’ styles could dictate a tightly fought battle; Portimonense’s possession control may clash with the visitors' balanced and physical approach.

Despite Torreense's perfect head-to-head record since 2023 over just three matches, the recent form and expected goals tell a different story. Portimonense's xPoints of 10.6 comfortably surpass Torreense's 7.8, backed by superior xG and xGA metrics. The hosts' better defensive numbers (xGA of 1.1 vs Torreense's 1.5) could tip the scales, particularly if they manage to contain the visitors' physical play effectively.

From a betting perspective, the numbers suggest cautious optimism for Portimonense. While the over/under line sits at a tight 46% for over 2.5 goals, Bet365's odds on Portimonense to win at 2.80 might offer value given the model's lean. A punt on Portimonense's win, acknowledging the slight edge, could be the sharper play.

Portimonense

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #16xP/match #5Points #9

Key players

Danio Mamadi DjassiLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.10
Samuel Neves BengueCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Edney Henrique Santos da SilvaRBxG 0.19 · xT 0.11

Torreense

Form DLWDL

League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #11xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Ianique dos Santos TavaresCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
Volnei FeltesCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Dany JeanLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Portimonense – Torreense

Predicted score matrix

Torreense →

Portimonense →

0–08.6%

0–19.8%

0–26.3%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.1%

1–010.0%

1–113.2%

1–28.0%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.5%

2–18.1%

2–25.0%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.7%

3–13.4%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,26–1,24

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

–

Over 2,546%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Portimonense or draw (1X)64%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Portimonense or draw (1X)64%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Tiago Filipe Prazeres Ferreira to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Tiago Filipe Prazeres Ferreira to score21%
João Vitor Xavier de Almeida to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Portimonense 0Draw 0Torreense 3

Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Portimonense

Torreense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Portimonense (6–7)

Torreense (7–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Portimonense

Torreense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Portimonense

Torreense

The teams in numbers

Performance	Portimonense	Torreense
Points	10	6
xPoints	10.6	7.8
xG per match	1.4	1.2
xGA per match	1.1	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.03	0.18

Playing style	Portimonense	Torreense
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.48	0.55
xT per match	0.69	0.85
xTA per match	1	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	22	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.23
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	13	9
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.69
Passes per match	342	321
Passes against per match	356	300
Switches of play per match	30.7	40.6
Long balls per match	35	43

Set pieces	Portimonense	Torreense
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.03
Corners per match	2.4	4.7
Corners against per match	5.9	4.6
xG per corner	0.05	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.59	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.49	0.53

Other	Portimonense	Torreense
Throw-in control	0.7	0.7

The goalkeepers	Eduardo dos Santos Haesler (Portimonense)	Adriel Vasconcelos Ramos (Torreense)
Saves	21	19
Save %	75%	68%
xG prevented	37%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Portimonense

Fixtures, form & tips

Torreense

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Portimonense vs Torreense according to our model?

The model gives Portimonense a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Portimonense 35%, draw 32%, Torreense 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Portimonense vs Torreense?

The model expects 1.26 goals (xG) for Portimonense and 1.24 for Torreense, 2.50 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Portimonense or draw (1X) 67%, Torreense or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 68%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.