01 · 2 legs
Safe
- União de Leiria to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Liga Portugal 219°11 km/h
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União de LeiriaPossession controlvs
AVSCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · União de Leiria (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · AVS @ 4.70 (+13 %)
União de Leiria vs AVS · Liga Portugal 2
1 · União de Leiria 48%X 28%24% AVS · 2
48%
28%
24%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for União de Leiria vs AVS (Liga Portugal 2, Saturday, 31 October 2026): União de Leiria win 48%, draw 28%, AVS win 24%. Expected goals (xG): União de Leiria 1.67, AVS 1.14. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: União de Leiria or draw 76%, AVS or draw 52%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: União de Leiria – AVS
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT contains two factual errors:
1. It labels the match-level expected goals (1.67 vs 1.14) as "xG per match," but the FACTS show "xG per match" season stats are actually 1.2 (Leiria) vs 0.82 (AVS). These are different metrics and have been conflated.
2. It states 53% over 2.5 goals "indicat[es] a marginal lean towards a lower-scoring game," which is backwards — 53% over 2.5 leans toward a higher-scoring game.
Corrected text:
A small sample size in recent head-to-head encounters between União de Leiria and AVS diminishes its weight in the analysis, making current form and expected goals more critical indicators for the upcoming clash. Despite the scant historical data, the hosts hold a slight edge in several key metrics, hinting at their potential advantage in this matchup.
On the surface, Leiria's possession-based style contrasts sharply with AVS's counter-attacking and crossing strategy. This tactical disparity might shape the flow of the game significantly. Leiria's ability to control the game could stifle AVS's counter-attacks, potentially limiting their opportunities to exploit defensive lapses. The model underlines a 48% chance of victory for the home side, reinforced by their marginally better points tally and expected points.
The expected goals data for this match paint a clearer picture: Leiria's projected 1.67 goals suggest they are more potent in attack compared to AVS's 1.14, a gap also reflected in their season-long xG per match of 1.2 versus 0.82. Meanwhile, both teams have shown vulnerabilities at the back, yet Leiria's defensive record is slightly superior to AVS, conceding 1.5 xGA per match compared to AVS's 2.0. This defensive edge bolsters the case for a narrow home victory, with 1-0 and 2-1 emerging as likely scorelines.
As for the betting angle, the over 2.5 goals market is a near coin-flip at 53%, indicating only a marginal lean towards a higher-scoring game. However, the bookie's odds might not offer sufficient value in this area. Instead, the most apparent value lies with a home win. Given the model's 48% probability for Leiria and a reputable bookmaker offering odds of 2.10, this is where the sharpest angle resides. The numbers suggest backing Leiria to edge a close contest, potentially affirming their slight dominance on paper.
União de LeiriaForm WWWDL
League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #6xP/match #12Points #11
Key players
- Miguel Ângelo Moreira MagalhãesRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.21
- Marcelo dos Santos FerreiraCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
- Ibrahima Kalil GuirassyCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
AVSForm DWLDW
League ranking xG #17xGA #18xT #15xP/match #18Points #12
Key players
- Matheus Cardoso FranciscoRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
- Andrey Felisberto dos SantosCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.21
- Abdoulaye Keita KeitaRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.20
Match prediction: União de Leiria – AVS
Predicted score matrix
AVS →
União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–16.5%
0–23.9%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–09.7%
1–111.8%
1–26.5%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.4%
2–19.6%
2–25.5%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–04.7%
3–15.3%
3–23.0%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–02.8%
4+–13.2%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,67–1,14
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@1.97
Over 2,553%
@1.82
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- União de Leiria to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Juan Muñoz Muñoz to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Juan Muñoz Muñoz to score32%
- Fernando Miguel Pereira Almeida to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · AVS24% probability@4.70BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · AVS24% probability@4.70NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · AVS24% probability@4.56PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · União de Leiria | X | 2 · AVS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.62 | EV+ 5% 3.80 | EV+ 13% 4.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | EV+ 5% 3.80 | EV+ 13% 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | EV+ 8% 3.89 | EV+ 10% 4.56 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 20:36
Odds movement
1+6 %
59 %54 %
1.59 → 1.68
X-4 %
26 %21 %
4.07 → 3.89
2-5 %
22 %17 %
4.78 → 4.56
Over 2,5+6 %
56 %51 %
1.71 → 1.82
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
União de Leiria
AVS
União de Leiria (10–9)
AVS (8–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
União de Leiria
AVS
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
União de Leiria
AVS
The teams in numbers
| Performance | União de Leiria | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 9 |
| xPoints | 8.1 | 6.3 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.82 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.58 |
| Playing style | União de Leiria | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 344 | 276 |
| Passes against per match | 308 | 361 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.4 | 27 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 36 |
| Set pieces | União de Leiria | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 2.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.42 |
| Other | União de Leiria | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Jakob Odehnal (União de Leiria) | Daniel Rebollo Franco (AVS) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 45 |
| Save % | 71% | 87% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 82% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins União de Leiria vs AVS according to our model?
The model gives União de Leiria a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: União de Leiria 48%, draw 28%, AVS 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in União de Leiria vs AVS?
The model expects 1.67 goals (xG) for União de Leiria and 1.14 for AVS, 2.81 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
União de Leiria or draw (1X) 76%, AVS or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.