Lusitania FC vs Farense Prediction: Away win 37% (1 Nov 2026)

Liga Portugal 21 November 202615°7 km/h

Lusitania FCCounter-attacks & crosses

FarensePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Farense (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.15 (+4 %)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · Lusitania FC 35%X 28%37% Farense · 2

35%

28%

37%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lusitania FC vs Farense (Liga Portugal 2, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Lusitania FC win 35%, draw 28%, Farense win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Lusitania FC 1.34, Farense 1.27. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Lusitania FC or draw 63%, Farense or draw 65%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Lusitania FC – Farense

Oscar Nilsson · 24 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Lusitania FC's unbeaten streak in their last seven league matches is a testament to their resilience and counter-attacking prowess. Yet, despite their good run, the odds tell a more complex story. Farense's style of possession control and their superior expected goals per match (1.9 to Lusitania's 1.5) suggest they're not to be underestimated. The expected goals might be a hint that Farense can carve open Lusitania's defenses more effectively than the hosts can counter.

The model's probabilities give Farense a slight edge at 37%, compared to Lusitania's 35%. This narrow margin reflects the closely contested nature of this matchup. Moreover, the xPoints suggest that Farense's performances have perhaps deserved more than their current league standing might imply, hinting at potential value in their favor.

Interestingly, the most popular predicted scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% probability, underscoring the likelihood of a tight affair. Both teams have similar expected goals against (xGA), which points towards a balanced defensive outlook. The over/under 2.5 goals is finely poised at 49%, suggesting the market is uncertain about goals flowing freely in this clash.

Given the tight expected goals and similar xGA metrics, a low-scoring draw is a plausible outcome. The model's lean towards Farense, combined with their higher xG profile, positions them as a slight favorite. However, the hosts’ unbeaten streak cannot be ignored and should inject some caution into any bold predictions for a Farense win.

The sharp angle here lies with the bookies slightly underestimating Farense. At odds around 37% implied probability, there's a hint of value backing them for a win, if you believe they can capitalize on their superior attacking metrics. This isn't a clear-cut betting opportunity, but if you're hunting for market oversight, Farense might just be worth a punt.

Lusitania FC

Form DWWWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #7xP/match #3Points #1

Key players

Arsénio Martins Lafuente NunesCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
Diogo Filipe Eusébio PauloCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Dylan João Raymond CollardCBxG 0.23 · xT 0.10

Farense

Form DLDWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #8xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

Derick Theodoro Santos PoloniFxG 0.54 · xT 0.11
Cláudio Falcão SantosCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.03
Toni Herrero OlivaLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Lusitania FC – Farense

Predicted score matrix

Farense →

Lusitania FC →

0–07.7%

0–18.9%

0–25.9%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.1%

1–09.5%

1–112.9%

1–28.0%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.6%

2–18.4%

2–25.3%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.0%

3–13.8%

3–22.4%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,34–1,27

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,551%

@1.68

Over 2,549%

@2.15EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Farense or draw (X2)62%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Farense or draw (X2)62%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Leonardo Daniel de Oliveira to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
João Pedro Palma Santos to score24%
Cláudio Falcão Santos to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.549% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
Over 2.549% probability@2.10BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
Over 2.549% probability@2.10NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lusitania FC	X	2 · Farense
Betsafe	2.72	3.05	2.55
Nordicbet	2.72	3.05	2.55
Pinnacle	2.79	3.16	2.57

Odds updated 26 Oct, 17:03

Odds movement

1+7 %

38 %33 %

2.61 → 2.79

X+1 %

32 %27 %

3.13 → 3.16

2-5 %

37 %32 %

2.70 → 2.57

Over 2,5+1 %

46 %41 %

2.13 → 2.15

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Lusitania FC are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lusitania FC

Farense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lusitania FC (12–5)

Farense (13–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lusitania FC

Farense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lusitania FC

Farense

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lusitania FC	Farense
Points	17	14
xPoints	12.7	13.1
xG per match	1.5	1.9
xGA per match	0.92	0.94
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.42	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.21

Playing style	Lusitania FC	Farense
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.46	0.54
xT per match	0.99	0.91
xTA per match	0.84	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	25	30
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.31
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	11	9
Pass completion %	0.73	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.65
Passes per match	267	312
Passes against per match	347	288
Switches of play per match	17.2	38.5
Long balls per match	29	49

Set pieces	Lusitania FC	Farense
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.04
Corners per match	4.1	6.7
Corners against per match	4.1	4
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.54

Other	Lusitania FC	Farense
Throw-in control	0.67	0.78

The goalkeepers	Brian da Rocha Araújo (Lusitania FC)	Fabijan Buntić (Farense)
Saves	11	19
Save %	85%	79%
xG prevented	76%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lusitania FC

Fixtures, form & tips

Farense

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lusitania FC vs Farense according to our model?

The model gives Farense a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lusitania FC 35%, draw 28%, Farense 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lusitania FC vs Farense?

The model expects 1.34 goals (xG) for Lusitania FC and 1.27 for Farense, 2.62 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lusitania FC or draw (1X) 63%, Farense or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.