Penafiel vs Feirense Prediction: Home win 47% (2 Nov 2026)

Liga Portugal 22 November 202615°9 km/h

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PenafielPossession control

FeirensePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Penafiel (47%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.65 (+10 %)

1 · Penafiel 47%X 29%24% Feirense · 2

47%

29%

24%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Penafiel vs Feirense (Liga Portugal 2, Monday, 2 November 2026): Penafiel win 47%, draw 29%, Feirense win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Penafiel 1.68, Feirense 1.10. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Penafiel or draw 76%, Feirense or draw 53%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Penafiel – Feirense

Sofia Andersson · 24 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The TEXT contains an unsupported fabricated claim about betting odds ("Bet365", "2.1") not present in the FACTS, and the closing line "likely in a low-scoring affair" contradicts the stated 52% lean toward over 2.5 goals. Corrected text:

Penafiel's strong statistical edge contrasts starkly with Feirense's dire form, which sees them on a six-match losing streak. The model suggests a 47% probability of a home win, with expected goals heavily favoring the hosts at 1.68 to the visitors' 1.10. Despite recent head-to-head meetings indicating four consecutive losses for Penafiel, this sample is too small to outweigh the current form and expected goals.

The most probable scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 reflect a balanced yet slightly favorable outlook for the hosts. With both teams favoring possession control, the match may see strategic battles in midfield rather than an open, end-to-end spectacle. However, Penafiel's higher xG of 1.7 per match suggests they are more likely to convert control into goals compared to Feirense's lower figure.

Penafiel's superiority is further underscored by their points and xPoints advantage, with 13 points to Feirense's solitary point and an xPoints difference of 12.8 to 7.3. These metrics highlight a gap in performance levels that aligns with their expected dominance in this fixture. Moreover, the model gives a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 52%, suggesting potential for more than just a single goal contest.

The final takeaway is clear: the numbers back Penafiel to break their head-to-head curse and seize victory. The model already factors in their robust form against a struggling Feirense.

Penafiel

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #5xT #3xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Goncalo NegraoRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.16
Iano Simão da Silva ImbeneCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.24
Alejandro Carbonell VallésCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.11

Feirense

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #11xT #1xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Andre LopesLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.21
Pedro Manuel da Mota PintoCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
Samad PopoolaCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Penafiel – Feirense

Predicted score matrix

Feirense →

Penafiel →

0–06.6%

0–16.5%

0–23.7%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.1%

1–111.8%

1–26.3%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.8%

2–19.6%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.9%

3–15.4%

3–23.0%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.0%

4+–13.3%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,68–1,10

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@1.68

Over 2,552%

@2.08EV+9%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Penafiel to win47%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Penafiel to win47%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Antonio David Álvarez Rey to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Antonio David Álvarez Rey to score28%
Samad Popoola to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.530% probability@3.65BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
Over 3.530% probability@3.65NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
Over 2.552% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Penafiel	X	2 · Feirense
Betsafe	1.92	3.30	3.80
Nordicbet	1.92	3.30	3.80

Odds updated 26 Oct, 20:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Penafiel 0Draw 0Feirense 4

Goals: 2–8 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Feirense have lost 6 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Penafiel

Feirense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Penafiel (14–7)

Feirense (2–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Penafiel

Feirense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Penafiel

Feirense

The teams in numbers

Performance	Penafiel	Feirense
Points	13	1
xPoints	12.8	7.3
xG per match	1.7	0.98
xGA per match	1	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.16

Playing style	Penafiel	Feirense
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.44	0.61
xT per match	1.1	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	0.67
Won balls, offensive half	19	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.29
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.73	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.66
Passes per match	299	352
Passes against per match	319	265
Switches of play per match	23.4	28.6
Long balls per match	33	40

Set pieces	Penafiel	Feirense
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.05
Corners per match	3.8	5.7
Corners against per match	4.1	4.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.42

Other	Penafiel	Feirense
Throw-in control	0.74	0.75

The goalkeepers	Miguel Oliveira (Penafiel)	Diego Altube Suárez (Feirense)
Saves	19	27
Save %	76%	75%
xG prevented	53%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Penafiel

Fixtures, form & tips

Feirense

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Penafiel vs Feirense according to our model?

The model gives Penafiel a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Penafiel 47%, draw 29%, Feirense 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Penafiel vs Feirense?

The model expects 1.68 goals (xG) for Penafiel and 1.10 for Feirense, 2.78 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Penafiel or draw (1X) 76%, Feirense or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.