Liga Portugal 217°6 km/h

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    LeixõesLeixõesPossession control
    vs
    SP
    Sporting CP IIPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Leixões (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sporting CP II @ 3.75 (+20 %)

    Leixões vs Sporting CP II · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Leixões 40%X 28%32% Sporting CP II · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Leixões vs Sporting CP II (Liga Portugal 2, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Leixões win 40%, draw 28%, Sporting CP II win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Leixões 1.37, Sporting CP II 1.39. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Leixões or draw 68%, Sporting CP II or draw 60%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Leixões – Sporting CP II

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Two teams with a penchant for possession control face off as Leixões host Sporting CP II. This matchup promises cautious, strategic play with both sides keen to dominate the ball. The visitors come in with a slight edge in both form and metrics, having accrued more points and demonstrating superior xG and xGA statistics compared to the hosts. Sporting CP II's defensive record is particularly noteworthy, conceding just 0.75 xGA per match, suggesting they may frustrate Leixões' attempts to break through.

    The model suggests a narrow edge for the home side at 40%, marginally ahead of Sporting CP II's 32% win probability, but this doesn't fully account for the visitors' defensive proficiency. The expected goals hint at a closely contested game, with Leixões at 1.37 and Sporting CP II at 1.39, further supporting the likelihood of a tight scoreline. Given these numbers, the most probable scorelines are 1-1 at 12% and 0-1 or 1-2 at 8%. The balance in expected goals and possession control styles suggests neither team will dominate.

    Despite the model's lean toward Leixões, the data tilts slightly in favor of Sporting CP II when considering xGA and the edge in points. If you're hunting for value, the visitors at 2.75 with Bet365 might be worth a look. However, the small sample size of head-to-head records should temper any overconfidence in either direction. The over/under 2.5 goals is finely balanced at 52%, indicating that while goals are possible, caution might reign supreme.

    For those focused on stability, a 1-1 draw seems the most probable outcome, as mirrored by the 12% likelihood. However, Sporting CP II pulling off a slim victory isn't out of the question, given their defensive strength. All in all, these numbers steer the betting opportunity towards the slim value of a Sporting CP II win at 2.75 odds.

    LeixõesLeixões
    Form LWWDL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #14xP/match #6Points #10
    Key players
    • Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.13
    • Amadu BaldeCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
    • Miguel Ferreira de SousaRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.23
    Sporting CP II
    Form LWWLW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #1xT #12xP/match #4Points #2
    Key players
    • Mauro Meireles CoutoRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.13
    • Rafael Ribeiro MotaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
    • Rodrigo Miguel Amores DiasLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16

    Match prediction: Leixões – Sporting CP II

    Predicted score matrix

    Sporting CP II →
    Leixões →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–18.4%
    0–26.1%
    0–32.8%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–08.3%
    1–112.4%
    1–28.4%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.8%
    2
    2–06.0%
    2–18.3%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.7%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–02.7%
    3–13.8%
    3–22.6%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-18%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,37–1,39
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @1.81
    Over 2,552%
    @1.99EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Leixões or draw (1X)63%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.09

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Leixões or draw (1X)63%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Bryan Giovanni Róchez Mejia to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Bryan Giovanni Róchez Mejia to score25%
    • Mateo Tanlongo to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Sporting CP II32% probability@3.75PinnacleEV+20%reference odds
    • 2 · Sporting CP II32% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
    • 2 · Sporting CP II32% probability@3.60NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · LeixõesX2 · Sporting CP II
    Betsafe1.983.25
    EV+ 15%
    3.60
    Nordicbet1.983.25
    EV+ 15%
    3.60
    Pinnacle1.983.39
    EV+ 20%
    3.75

    Odds updated 26 Oct, 06:00

    Odds movement

    1-6 %
    48 %43 %

    2.11 → 1.98

    X+2 %
    30 %25 %

    3.32 → 3.39

    2+9 %
    29 %24 %

    3.43 → 3.75

    Over 2,5-1 %
    50 %45 %

    2.01 → 1.99

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Leixões
    Sporting CP II
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Leixões (9–8)
    Sporting CP II (10–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Leixões
    Matheus de Mello Costa: 215 passningar, xT 0.37CostaAmadu Balde: 177 passningar, xT 0.13BaldeCláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo: 148 passningar, xT 0.6AraújoLourenco Henriques: 103 passningar, xT 0.04HenriquesRafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa: 103 passningar, xT 0.43BarbosaPaulo Sérgio Mota: 96 passningar, xT 0.06MotaHugo Miguel Lourido Faria: 91 passningar, xT 0.1FariaSerif Nhaga: 89 passningar, xT 0.19NhagaMiguel Ferreira de Sousa: 72 passningar, xT 0.3SousaIgor Stefanovic: 70 passningar, xT 0.09StefanovicSalvador José Milhazes Agra: 55 passningar, xT 0.03Agra
    Sporting CP II
    Lucas Taibo Dominguez: 219 passningar, xT 0.25DominguezEduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo: 179 passningar, xT 0.37FelicíssimoMateo Tanlongo: 157 passningar, xT 0.13TanlongoKauã Wellhington Oliveira Pinto: 151 passningar, xT 0.18PintoRodrigo Prata Deusdado Rodrigues: 118 passningar, xT 0.57RodriguesRodrigo Miguel Amores Dias: 111 passningar, xT 0.52DiasSamuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo: 106 passningar, xT 0.21JustoMauro Meireles Couto: 81 passningar, xT 0.27CoutoMicael Elias Silvestre Sanha: 61 passningar, xT 0.27SanhaFrancisco Diogo Pereira da Silva: 61 passningar, xT 0.04SilvaGuilherme Meireles Pires: 45 passningar, xT 0Pires
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Leixões
    Matheus de Mello Costa: 215 passningar, xT 0.37CostaAmadu Balde: 177 passningar, xT 0.13BaldeCláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo: 148 passningar, xT 0.6AraújoLourenco Henriques: 103 passningar, xT 0.04HenriquesRafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa: 103 passningar, xT 0.43BarbosaPaulo Sérgio Mota: 96 passningar, xT 0.06MotaHugo Miguel Lourido Faria: 91 passningar, xT 0.1FariaSerif Nhaga: 89 passningar, xT 0.19NhagaMiguel Ferreira de Sousa: 72 passningar, xT 0.3SousaIgor Stefanovic: 70 passningar, xT 0.09StefanovicSalvador José Milhazes Agra: 55 passningar, xT 0.03Agra
    Sporting CP II
    Lucas Taibo Dominguez: 219 passningar, xT 0.25DominguezEduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo: 179 passningar, xT 0.37FelicíssimoMateo Tanlongo: 157 passningar, xT 0.13TanlongoKauã Wellhington Oliveira Pinto: 151 passningar, xT 0.18PintoRodrigo Prata Deusdado Rodrigues: 118 passningar, xT 0.57RodriguesRodrigo Miguel Amores Dias: 111 passningar, xT 0.52DiasSamuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo: 106 passningar, xT 0.21JustoMauro Meireles Couto: 81 passningar, xT 0.27CoutoMicael Elias Silvestre Sanha: 61 passningar, xT 0.27SanhaFrancisco Diogo Pereira da Silva: 61 passningar, xT 0.04SilvaGuilherme Meireles Pires: 45 passningar, xT 0Pires

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceLeixõesSporting CP II
    Points1015
    xPoints10.512.4
    xG per match1.21.3
    xGA per match1.10.75
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.350.26
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.18
    Playing styleLeixõesSporting CP II
    Build-up efficiency0.30.33
    Field tilt0.620.56
    xT per match0.790.8
    xTA per match0.780.67
    Won balls, offensive half2722
    Pressing intensity0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency0.340.4
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.32
    Entries into the box per match119
    Entries into the box against811
    Pass completion %0.740.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.7
    Passes per match305329
    Passes against per match254264
    Switches of play per match2730
    Long balls per match3331
    Set piecesLeixõesSporting CP II
    xG from free kicks0.040.05
    Corners per match5.53.4
    Corners against per match4.24.1
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.96
    First touch, defensive corners %0.730.52
    OtherLeixõesSporting CP II
    Throw-in control0.660.73
    The goalkeepersIgor Stefanovic (Leixões)Francisco Diogo Pereira da Silva (Sporting CP II)
    Saves148
    Save %64%73%
    xG prevented26%34%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Leixões
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sporting CP II
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Leixões vs Sporting CP II according to our model?

    The model gives Leixões a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leixões 40%, draw 28%, Sporting CP II 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Leixões vs Sporting CP II?

    The model expects 1.37 goals (xG) for Leixões and 1.39 for Sporting CP II, 2.76 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Leixões or draw (1X) 68%, Sporting CP II or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 72%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.