Tondela vs Felgueiras Prediction: Home win 49% (30 Oct 2026)

Liga Portugal 230 October 202616°7 km/h

Läs på svenska

TondelaPossession control

FelgueirasPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Tondela (49%)

1 · Tondela 49%X 31%20% Felgueiras · 2

49%

31%

20%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tondela vs Felgueiras (Liga Portugal 2, Friday, 30 October 2026): Tondela win 49%, draw 31%, Felgueiras win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Tondela 1.44, Felgueiras 0.82. Most likely score: 1-0 (15%). Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%. Double chance: Tondela or draw 80%, Felgueiras or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Tondela – Felgueiras

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The sharpest angle here claim about Bet365 odds (2.10) is not supported by the provided facts and should be removed.

TEXT: Three consecutive victories paint Tondela as a formidable force right now, especially at home where they secure wins in 62% of their matches. This strong form is mirrored by the model, which assigns them a 49% probability of winning against Felgueiras. The visitors, on the other hand, are struggling, having suffered three straight defeats. Their chances of reversing this trend appear slim, given only a 20% chance of victory.

With both teams favoring possession control, this encounter may well be a battle for midfield supremacy. However, Tondela's superior statistics, from expected goals to xPoints, highlight their current advantage. The most likely scorelines favor the hosts too, with a 1-0 win topping the model's predictions at 15%. The expected goals aggregate of 2.26 points to a tight match, leaning towards the under 2.5 goals at 61%.

In this small head-to-head sample of just two games, Felgueiras hold a slight historical edge. Yet, the current context shifts the balance decisively towards Tondela, making them the model's clear lean for this matchup.

Tondela

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #2xT #5xP/match #7Points #6

Key players

Joao AfonsoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Arjen van der HeideRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.20
José Ricardo Avelar RibeiroLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.20

Felgueiras

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #10xP/match #14Points #14

Key players

Francisco FrancaCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
Rolando António Pereira Rocha AlmeidaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
Joao PintoCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Tondela – Felgueiras

Predicted score matrix

Felgueiras →

Tondela →

0–010.8%

0–18.2%

0–23.5%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.6%

1–112.7%

1–25.1%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.8%

2–18.9%

2–23.6%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–05.2%

3–14.3%

3–21.7%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.1%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-015%
2.1-113%
3.2-011%
4.0-011%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,44–0,82

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,561%

–

Over 2,539%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tondela to win49%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tondela to win49%
Under 2.5 goals61%
João Marcos Lima Cândido to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals39%
João Marcos Lima Cândido to score27%
Eduardo Silvino da Cruz to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Tondela 0Draw 1Felgueiras 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Tondela come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Felgueiras 1932 have lost 3 in a row.
Tondela win 62% of their home matches all-time (21 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Tondela

Felgueiras

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Tondela (8–6)

Felgueiras (5–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Tondela

Felgueiras

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Tondela

Felgueiras

The teams in numbers

Performance	Tondela	Felgueiras
Points	12	6
xPoints	10.4	7.9
xG per match	1.1	0.88
xGA per match	0.77	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.27

Playing style	Tondela	Felgueiras
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.64	0.48
xT per match	1.1	0.86
xTA per match	0.56	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	26	26
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.22
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	9	11
Pass completion %	0.71	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.69
Passes per match	288	275
Passes against per match	281	376
Switches of play per match	27.1	16.8
Long balls per match	36	35

Set pieces	Tondela	Felgueiras
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	5.4	4.5
Corners against per match	1.6	5.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.54

Other	Tondela	Felgueiras
Throw-in control	0.74	0.7

The goalkeepers	Lucas Cañizares Conchello (Tondela)	Mateus Pasinato (Felgueiras)
Saves	8	19
Save %	73%	73%
xG prevented	23%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Tondela

Fixtures, form & tips

Felgueiras

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tondela vs Felgueiras according to our model?

The model gives Tondela a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tondela 49%, draw 31%, Felgueiras 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 15% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Tondela vs Felgueiras?

The model expects 1.44 goals (xG) for Tondela and 0.82 for Felgueiras, 2.26 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Tondela or draw (1X) 80%, Felgueiras or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.