01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Benfica B or draw (1X)64%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Liga Portugal 218°12 km/h
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Benfica B1–0
FelgueirasThe model's lean: 1 · Benfica B (36%)Best value by the model: 2 · Felgueiras @ 3.20 (+10 %)
Benfica B vs Felgueiras · Liga Portugal 2
1 · Benfica B 36%X 30%34% Felgueiras · 2
36%
30%
34%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Benfica B vs Felgueiras (Liga Portugal 2, Monday, 12 October 2026): Benfica B win 36%, draw 30%, Felgueiras win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Benfica B 1.25, Felgueiras 1.23. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Benfica B or draw 66%, Felgueiras or draw 64%. Prediction updated Saturday, 3 October 2026.
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Analysis: Benfica B – Felgueiras
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The model suggests a tight contest between Benfica B and Felgueiras, with probabilities nearly splitting down the middle: 36% for the hosts and 34% for the visitors. A draw sits squarely at 30%, hinting at a balanced affair. With expected goals nearly identical at 1.25 for Benfica B and 1.23 for Felgueiras, we’re looking at a game where neither side is likely to dominate.
A small head-to-head sample since 2023 slightly favors the home side with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. However, this doesn’t carry much weight against the current form and expected goal metrics. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 (13%) and the 10% likelihoods for both 1-0 and 0-1 outcomes further illustrate the anticipated parity. The over 2.5 goals probability at 45% and both teams scoring at 51% underscore a cautious approach to goalscoring forecasts.
Given the model's lean towards a Benfica B victory, their historical edge might suggest a slight home advantage. However, the numbers reveal an enticing angle for the savvy punter: Felgueiras at 3.25 odds with Betsafe and Nordicbet is an EV+ opportunity, given the model’s 34% win probability for them. That’s a solid 12% edge, making this a prime candidate for those looking to capitalize on market inefficiencies.
Ultimately, the clash is poised to be a closely fought encounter, with 1-1 standing out as the most likely conclusion. The under 2.5 goals option appears marginally more compelling, but the standout play lies with Felgueiras’ odds—they offer the clearest value on the table.
Benfica BForm WWLLW
Key players
- Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraCAMxG 0.79 · xT 0.16
- Francisco Bernardes Freitas NetoLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
- Daniel Armando Fonseca da Silva BanjaquiRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
FelgueirasForm DDWLL
Key players
- Samuel Oliveira Vivas CastroCBxG 0.46 · xT 0.07
- Rolando António Pereira Rocha AlmeidaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
- Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida MartinsCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Benfica B 36% · Draw 30% · Felgueiras 34%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Felgueiras 1932Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,72fair 12,90-17 %
MissMatchresultat - SL Benfica BBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,73fair 12,57-31 %
MissMatch prediction: Benfica B – Felgueiras
Predicted score matrix
Felgueiras →
Benfica B →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.8%
0–19.9%
0–26.4%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–010.1%
1–113.3%
1–27.9%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.5%
2–18.0%
2–24.9%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–02.7%
3–13.3%
3–22.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.4%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,25–1,23
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.76
Over 2,545%
@2.10
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Benfica B or draw (1X)64%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Tiago Dias Freitas to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Tiago Dias Freitas to score25%
- Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Felgueiras34% probability@3.20PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Benfica B | X | 2 · Felgueiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.32 | 3.15 | 2.90 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.85 |
| Nordicbet | 2.32 | 3.15 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 3.26 | EV+ 10% 3.20 |
Odds updated 12 Oct, 13:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Felgueiras win since 6 October — the odds have shortened from 3.49 to 3.20 (−8%).
1+9 %
45 %40 %
2.14 → 2.33
X+1 %
32 %27 %
3.22 → 3.26
2-8 %
31 %26 %
3.49 → 3.20
Over 2,5+1 %
48 %43 %
2.08 → 2.10
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 06/10/2026 → 12/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesBenfica B 2Draw 1Felgueiras 1
Goals: 10–7 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Benfica B
Felgueiras
Benfica B (6–4)
Felgueiras (5–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Benfica B
Felgueiras
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Benfica B
Felgueiras
| The goalkeepers | Diogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira (Benfica B) | Mateus Pasinato (Felgueiras) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 14 |
| Save % | 92% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Benfica B vs Felgueiras according to our model?
The model gives Benfica B a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica B 36%, draw 30%, Felgueiras 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Benfica B vs Felgueiras?
The model expects 1.25 goals (xG) for Benfica B and 1.23 for Felgueiras, 2.48 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Benfica B or draw (1X) 66%, Felgueiras or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.