Nacional vs Alverca: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga12 September 2026Estádio da Madeira, Funchal25°10 km/h

Läs på svenska

NacionalPossession control

1–3

AlvercaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Nacional (44%)

1 · Nacional 44%X 30%26% Alverca · 2

44%

30%

26%

Analysis: Nacional – Alverca

Sofia Andersson · 12 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Nacional's losing streak of three matches is the most glaring statistic leading into their clash with Alverca. Although they possess home advantage, their current form is troubling. The model gives Nacional a 44% probability to win, yet their recent slump can't be ignored. Their xG per match sits at a modest 0.89, well below what's expected for a side tipped to win.

On paper, the teams seem evenly matched in playing style, both favoring possession control, which could neutralize each other. However, Alverca's slightly better xG at 1.1 and xGA at 1.8 suggest an edge in expected performance metrics. Despite having fewer points, Alverca's expected points (xPoints) of 5.4 overshadow Nacional's 3.7, indicating that they might be performing better than their current standing suggests.

The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample, stands evenly at one win apiece, offering little to sway predictions substantially. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 at 13% and 1-0 at 11%, with expected goals pointing towards a tight contest — Nacional 1.48 versus Alverca's 1.13. The model suggests only a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals, further reinforcing the expectation for a low-scoring affair.

Given the odds, there's value in backing Nacional at 2.55 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, reflecting an 11% edge based on the model's assessment. While cautious optimism surrounds the hosts given the value odds, the probability of both teams scoring at 52% might make a 1-1 draw the most sensible prediction. Expect a close encounter, but the betting angle leans Nacional's way, offering a potentially profitable opportunity for those willing to back the home side.

Nacional

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #18xT #10xP/match #16Points #11

Key players

Pablo Ruan Messias CardozoFxG 0.30 · xT 0.00
Leonardo Rodrigues dos SantosCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.26
Igor Matheus Liziero PereiraCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.17

Alverca

Form LDLDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #15xT #15xP/match #12Points #16

Key players

Francisco Jorge Tavares OliveiraRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.06
Lucas Figueiredo dos SantosFxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
Isaac JamesLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14

Final score

1 – 3

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Nacional 44% · Draw 30% · Alverca 26%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - NacionalBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,12fair 9,04+12 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AlvercaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,30fair 15,43-40 %

Hit

Match prediction: Nacional – Alverca

Predicted score matrix

Alverca →

Nacional →

0–07.8%

0–18.0%

0–24.7%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–010.6%

1–112.7%

1–26.9%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.1%

2–19.1%

2–25.1%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.0%

3–14.5%

3–22.5%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,48–1,13

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.82

Over 2,548%

@2.07

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Nacional or draw (1X)72%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Nacional or draw (1X)72%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Pablo Ruan Messias Cardozo to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Pablo Ruan Messias Cardozo to score23%
Igor Matheus Liziero Pereira to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Nacional44% probability@2.88PinnacleEV+26%reference odds
1 · Nacional44% probability@2.75BetssonEV+20%reference odds
1 · Nacional44% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+20%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nacional	X	2 · Alverca
Betsafe	EV+ 19% 2.72	3.15	2.52
Betsson	EV+ 20% 2.75	3.10	2.52
Nordicbet	EV+ 20% 2.75	3.10	2.52
Pinnacle	EV+ 26% 2.88	3.26	2.61

Odds updated 12 Sept, 14:27

Odds movement

1+5 %

37 %32 %

2.73 → 2.88

X-1 %

32 %27 %

3.30 → 3.26

2-1 %

39 %34 %

2.64 → 2.61

Over 2,5+1 %

49 %44 %

2.04 → 2.07

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 12/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Nacional 1Draw 0Alverca 1

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Nacional have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nacional

Alverca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nacional (6–8)

Alverca (5–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nacional

Alverca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nacional

Alverca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nacional	Alverca
Points	4	2
xPoints	3.7	5.4
xG per match	0.89	1.1
xGA per match	2.1	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.05	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.38

Playing style	Nacional	Alverca
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.28
Field tilt	0.41	0.34
xT per match	0.78	0.58
xTA per match	0.95	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	22	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.2
Entries into the box per match	8	8
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.69
Passes per match	337	283
Passes against per match	365	426
Switches of play per match	32.4	21.6
Long balls per match	38	26

Set pieces	Nacional	Alverca
xG from free kicks	0	0.01
Corners per match	3.6	5.3
Corners against per match	5.4	3.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.69

Other	Nacional	Alverca
Throw-in control	0.71	0.7

The goalkeepers	Renato Bellucci Marin (Nacional)	Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira (Alverca)
Saves	19	18
Save %	70%	67%
xG prevented	45%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nacional

Fixtures, form & tips

Alverca

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nacional vs Alverca according to our model?

The model gives Nacional a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nacional 44%, draw 30%, Alverca 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.