Albacete vs Sabadell Prediction: Home win 42% (31 Oct 2026)

Segunda División31 October 202614°14 km/h

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AlbacetePossession & high press

SabadellPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Albacete (42%)

1 · Albacete 42%X 28%30% Sabadell · 2

42%

28%

30%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Albacete vs Sabadell (Segunda División, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Albacete win 42%, draw 28%, Sabadell win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Albacete 1.30, Sabadell 1.07. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Albacete or draw 70%, Sabadell or draw 58%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Albacete – Sabadell

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT CONTAINS AN UNSUPPORTED CLAIM: the betting odds "3.10 with Marathonbet" are not part of the provided facts and appear fabricated. Corrected text:

Five consecutive losses paint a bleak picture for Albacete as they prepare to host Sabadell in the Segunda División. Despite their style focused on high possession and pressing, it hasn't translated into results. Sabadell, with a more controlled possession approach, sits comfortably ahead in both points and expected metrics. The visitors have amassed 16 points to the hosts' solitary point, suggesting a significant gulf in current form.

Yet, the model suggests a nuanced view: Albacete stands a 42% chance of victory, a touch better than the visitors' 30%. This discrepancy hints at a closer contest than the standings and underlying metrics display. The defensive frailties of Albacete, shipping an average of 1.7 expected goals against per match, are alarming compared to Sabadell's 0.95. This stability at the back for Sabadell is likely to be a decisive factor.

The expected goals numbers project a low-scoring affair, with both teams likely finding the net but not lighting it up. With a 48% chance of both teams scoring and a modest 42% probability of exceeding 2.5 goals, a tight game seems in store. A goalless draw or a slender 1-0 margin either way fits the statistical picture, with 1-1 as the most probable outcome at 13%.

While Sabadell's superior form and defensive solidity make them an appealing pick for some, the model itself leans toward Albacete, giving the hosts the highest win probability despite their poor recent run. Whether bettors trust the model's edge or the underlying form table, this looks set to be a tightly contested match.

Albacete

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #20xT #14xP/match #22Points #22

Key players

Fran GamezRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.29
Jose CorpasRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.06
Sergio OrtunoRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.19

Sabadell

Form WDDWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #2xT #13xP/match #1Points #10

Key players

Albert Orriols CerarolsCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
Quadri LiameedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Óscar Sanz NavalCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Albacete – Sabadell

Predicted score matrix

Sabadell →

Albacete →

0–09.7%

0–19.6%

0–25.3%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.8%

1–113.4%

1–26.9%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.8%

2–07.9%

2–18.5%

2–24.5%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.5%

3–13.7%

3–22.0%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.6%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-110%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,30–1,07

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.64

Over 2,542%

@2.15

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Albacete or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Albacete or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Mario Soberón Gutiérrez to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Mario Soberón Gutiérrez to score23%
Albert Orriols Cerarols to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Albacete42% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
1 · Albacete42% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
1 · Albacete42% probability@2.60LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Albacete	X	2 · Sabadell
Betsafe	EV+ 11% 2.62	3.05	2.62
LeoVegas	EV+ 10% 2.60	3.10	2.60
Nordicbet	EV+ 11% 2.62	3.05	2.62

Odds updated 26 Oct, 12:36

Odds movement

10 %

38 %33 %

2.60 → 2.60

X-3 %

32 %27 %

3.20 → 3.10

2+2 %

38 %33 %

2.55 → 2.60

LeoVegas · 8 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Albacete Balompie have lost 5 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Albacete

Sabadell

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Albacete (6–22)

Sabadell (10–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Albacete

Sabadell

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Albacete

Sabadell

The teams in numbers

Performance	Albacete	Sabadell
Points	1	16
xPoints	10.8	17.2
xG per match	1.1	1.3
xGA per match	1.7	0.95
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.24

Playing style	Albacete	Sabadell
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.36
Field tilt	0.5	0.49
xT per match	0.84	0.85
xTA per match	1.2	0.71
Won balls, offensive half	30	35
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.32
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	14	7
Pass completion %	0.72	0.63
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.58
Passes per match	332	230
Passes against per match	388	357
Switches of play per match	30.4	16.9
Long balls per match	35	26

Set pieces	Albacete	Sabadell
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.05
Corners per match	5.2	5.3
Corners against per match	4.1	3.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.65

Other	Albacete	Sabadell
Throw-in control	0.68	0.62

The goalkeepers	Diego Marino (Albacete)	Diego Licinio Lázaro Fuoli (Sabadell)
Saves	20	24
Save %	59%	75%
xG prevented	46%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Albacete

Fixtures, form & tips

Sabadell

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Albacete vs Sabadell according to our model?

The model gives Albacete a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Albacete 42%, draw 28%, Sabadell 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Albacete vs Sabadell?

The model expects 1.30 goals (xG) for Albacete and 1.07 for Sabadell, 2.37 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Albacete or draw (1X) 70%, Sabadell or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.