Segunda División13°8 km/h

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    Real OviedoReal OviedoPossession control
    vs
    Las PalmasLas PalmasPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Real Oviedo (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Las Palmas @ 4.30 (+8 %)

    Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas · Segunda División

    1 · Real Oviedo 46%X 28%25% Las Palmas · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas (Segunda División, Monday, 2 November 2026): Real Oviedo win 46%, draw 28%, Las Palmas win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Real Oviedo 1.67, Las Palmas 1.12. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Real Oviedo or draw 75%, Las Palmas or draw 54%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Real Oviedo – Las Palmas

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: A 46% probability suggests that Oviedo are favored against Las Palmas, though not overwhelmingly. The hosts' 59% home win rate historically underscores their edge at the Carlos Tartiere. Yet, the most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, indicate a close contest.

    Both teams prefer possession, potentially leading to a tactical battle in midfield. Oviedo's attacking edge is clear with 1.67 expected goals compared to Las Palmas' 1.12, and their xG per match further supports this at 1.4 versus 0.8. Yet, Oviedo concedes chances as well, at 1.4 xGA, slightly more than their visitors' 1.2, which could keep Las Palmas in the game.

    The over 2.5 goals probability of 53% suggests a tilt toward a match with multiple goals, especially with both teams likely to score (55%). However, the model's lean toward Oviedo, combined with Las Palmas' weaker xPoints and xG figures, highlights potential value in backing Oviedo for a home win.

    Real OviedoReal Oviedo
    Form LWLWW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #18xT #5xP/match #11Points #9
    Key players
    • David CostasCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
    • David Jimenez CorredorRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.35
    • Mikel Goti LópezCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.24
    Las PalmasLas Palmas
    Form LLDLL
    League ranking xG #21xGA #13xT #20xP/match #21Points #16
    Key players
    • Kirian RodriguezCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
    • Valentín Alejandro PezzolesiRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.01
    • Iván Jaime PajueloLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Real Oviedo – Las Palmas

    Predicted score matrix

    Las Palmas →
    Real Oviedo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.5%
    0–16.5%
    0–23.8%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–010.0%
    1–111.8%
    1–26.4%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–08.6%
    2–19.6%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–04.8%
    3–15.3%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.9%
    4+–13.2%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,67–1,12
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @1.83
    Over 2,553%
    @1.90EV+0%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Real Oviedo to win46%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.50

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Real Oviedo to win46%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • José Luis Morales Nogales to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • José Luis Morales Nogales to score27%
    • Enzo Lilian Marin Loiodice to be booked26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Las Palmas25% probability@4.30BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
    • 2 · Las Palmas25% probability@4.30LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
    • 2 · Las Palmas25% probability@4.30NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Real OviedoX2 · Las Palmas
    Betsafe1.723.50
    EV+ 8%
    4.30
    LeoVegas1.73
    EV+ 4%
    3.65
    EV+ 8%
    4.30
    Nordicbet1.723.50
    EV+ 8%
    4.30

    Odds updated 26 Oct, 16:36

    Odds movement

    10 %
    56 %51 %

    1.73 → 1.73

    X+3 %
    28 %23 %

    3.55 → 3.65

    2+2 %
    24 %19 %

    4.20 → 4.30

    Over 2,5+2 %
    52 %47 %

    1.85 → 1.88

    LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Real Oviedo win 59% of their home matches all-time (49 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Real Oviedo
    Las Palmas
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Real Oviedo (13–10)
    Las Palmas (13–19)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Real Oviedo
    Carlos Domínguez Cáceres: 167 passningar, xT 0.25CáceresYouness Lachhab Didi: 150 passningar, xT 0.17DidiDani Calvo: 150 passningar, xT 0CalvoAlberto Reina: 133 passningar, xT 0.23ReinaSamuel Rodríguez de la Riva: 131 passningar, xT 0.38RivaMikel Goti López: 121 passningar, xT 1.22LópezAritz Aldasoro: 107 passningar, xT 0.17AldasoroDani Villahermosa: 94 passningar, xT 0.11VillahermosaDavid Jimenez Corredor: 86 passningar, xT 1.13CorredorAaron Escandell: 79 passningar, xT 0.11EscandellLorenzo Ferreira Pérez: 77 passningar, xT -0.02Pérez
    Las Palmas
    Kirian Rodriguez: 233 passningar, xT 0.51RodriguezEnzo Lilian Marin Loiodice: 233 passningar, xT 0.45LoiodiceValentín Alejandro Pezzolesi: 205 passningar, xT 0.15PezzolesiGiovanni Bonfanti: 143 passningar, xT 0.1BonfantiJosé Antonio Caro Díaz: 132 passningar, xT 0.16DíazAlex Suarez: 131 passningar, xT 0.18SuarezInaki Gonzalez: 127 passningar, xT 0.47GonzalezJuanma Herzog: 117 passningar, xT 0.1HerzogTaisei Miyashiro: 98 passningar, xT 0.03MiyashiroIván Jaime Pajuelo: 96 passningar, xT 0.13PajueloManu Fuster: 81 passningar, xT 0.42Fuster
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Real Oviedo
    Carlos Domínguez Cáceres: 167 passningar, xT 0.25CáceresYouness Lachhab Didi: 150 passningar, xT 0.17DidiDani Calvo: 150 passningar, xT 0CalvoAlberto Reina: 133 passningar, xT 0.23ReinaSamuel Rodríguez de la Riva: 131 passningar, xT 0.38RivaMikel Goti López: 121 passningar, xT 1.22LópezAritz Aldasoro: 107 passningar, xT 0.17AldasoroDani Villahermosa: 94 passningar, xT 0.11VillahermosaDavid Jimenez Corredor: 86 passningar, xT 1.13CorredorAaron Escandell: 79 passningar, xT 0.11EscandellLorenzo Ferreira Pérez: 77 passningar, xT -0.02Pérez
    Las Palmas
    Kirian Rodriguez: 233 passningar, xT 0.51RodriguezEnzo Lilian Marin Loiodice: 233 passningar, xT 0.45LoiodiceValentín Alejandro Pezzolesi: 205 passningar, xT 0.15PezzolesiGiovanni Bonfanti: 143 passningar, xT 0.1BonfantiJosé Antonio Caro Díaz: 132 passningar, xT 0.16DíazAlex Suarez: 131 passningar, xT 0.18SuarezInaki Gonzalez: 127 passningar, xT 0.47GonzalezJuanma Herzog: 117 passningar, xT 0.1HerzogTaisei Miyashiro: 98 passningar, xT 0.03MiyashiroIván Jaime Pajuelo: 96 passningar, xT 0.13PajueloManu Fuster: 81 passningar, xT 0.42Fuster

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceReal OviedoLas Palmas
    Points1711
    xPoints13.810.8
    xG per match1.40.8
    xGA per match1.41.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.11
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.170.29
    Playing styleReal OviedoLas Palmas
    Build-up efficiency0.30.27
    Field tilt0.50.58
    xT per match10.69
    xTA per match0.990.92
    Won balls, offensive half2424
    Pressing intensity0.220.23
    Pressing efficiency0.320.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.15
    Entries into the box per match1110
    Entries into the box against1312
    Pass completion %0.730.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.74
    Passes per match322385
    Passes against per match333373
    Switches of play per match23.417.4
    Long balls per match2924
    Set piecesReal OviedoLas Palmas
    xG from free kicks0.10.07
    Corners per match5.53.9
    Corners against per match5.35.7
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.070.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.490.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.550.45
    OtherReal OviedoLas Palmas
    Throw-in control0.640.68
    The goalkeepersAaron Escandell (Real Oviedo)José Antonio Caro Díaz (Las Palmas)
    Saves2630
    Save %81%61%
    xG prevented67%46%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Real Oviedo
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Las Palmas
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas according to our model?

    The model gives Real Oviedo a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Real Oviedo 46%, draw 28%, Las Palmas 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas?

    The model expects 1.67 goals (xG) for Real Oviedo and 1.12 for Las Palmas, 2.79 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Real Oviedo or draw (1X) 75%, Las Palmas or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 72%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.