Eibar vs Almería Prediction: Home win 40% (31 Oct 2026)

Segunda División31 October 202612°7 km/h

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EibarLow block & direct

AlmeríaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Eibar (40%)

1 · Eibar 40%X 27%33% Almería · 2

40%

27%

33%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Eibar vs Almería (Segunda División, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Eibar win 40%, draw 27%, Almería win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Eibar 1.36, Almería 1.31. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Eibar or draw 67%, Almería or draw 60%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Eibar – Almería

Oscar Nilsson · 24 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Eibar's ability to find the net in 17 consecutive league matches provides a potent backdrop for their clash against Almería. This scoring streak, coupled with their strong all-time home win rate of 61%, underscores their offensive resilience. Yet, the visitors arrive with a seven-match win streak, a testament to their current form and a slight psychological edge.

The model suggests Eibar holds a 40% chance of victory, marginally ahead of Almería's 33%. Yet, the visitors' recent form could tilt this delicate balance. Despite Eibar's historical dominance at home, Almería's balanced and physical style poses a real threat, especially since they edge the hosts in expected goals per match (1.4 vs. 1.3).

The expected goals for both teams are nearly identical—Eibar at 1.36 and Almería at 1.31—indicating a match that could very well be decided by fine margins. Historically, their head-to-head record since 2023, with Eibar leading 2W 1D 1L in just four games, is too small a sample to heavily influence predictions. Instead, Almería's form and Eibar's scoring streak are more telling indicators.

The model's most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw (13%). The evenly poised xPoints (Eibar 15.9 vs. Almería 14.9) further suggest a tight contest. The over/under line sits at an even 50%, with both teams expected to score at 55%. A low-scoring draw, possibly 1-1, seems the most likely outcome.

Eibar

Form WWWLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #17xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Anaitz ArbillaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Ander MadariagaCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
Adu AresRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.16

Almería

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #10xT #9xP/match #5Points #1

Key players

Federico BoniniCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Juan Brandáriz MovillaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
Sergio ArribasRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.28

Match prediction: Eibar – Almería

Predicted score matrix

Almería →

Eibar →

0–07.3%

0–18.7%

0–25.9%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.1%

1–09.1%

1–112.7%

1–28.1%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.4%

2–18.4%

2–25.5%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.9%

3–13.8%

3–22.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,36–1,31

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.95

Over 2,550%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Eibar or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Eibar or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Jon Guruzeta Rodríguez to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Jon Guruzeta Rodríguez to score23%
Stefan Džodić to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Eibar	X	2 · Almería
Betsafe	2.32	3.30	2.80
LeoVegas	2.35	3.35	2.75
Nordicbet	2.32	3.30	2.80

Odds updated 27 Oct, 07:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

41 %36 %

2.40 → 2.35

X-4 %

30 %25 %

3.50 → 3.35

2+6 %

37 %32 %

2.60 → 2.75

LeoVegas · 7 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Eibar 2Draw 1Almería 1

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

SD Eibar have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.
UD Almería come into this round on 7 straight wins.
SD Eibar win 61% of their home matches all-time (69 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eibar

Almería

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eibar (20–11)

Almería (20–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eibar

Almería

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eibar

Almería

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eibar	Almería
Points	22	24
xPoints	15.9	14.9
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.1	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.15

Playing style	Eibar	Almería
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.29	0.5
xT per match	0.82	0.95
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	24	20
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.26
Entries into the box per match	10	10
Entries into the box against	15	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.75
Passes per match	328	423
Passes against per match	438	322
Switches of play per match	25.4	22
Long balls per match	32	29

Set pieces	Eibar	Almería
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.1
Corners per match	3.4	4.2
Corners against per match	5.7	5.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.56	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.53

Other	Eibar	Almería
Throw-in control	0.71	0.68

The goalkeepers	Jonmi Magunagoitia (Eibar)	Andres Fernandez (Almería)
Saves	44	28
Save %	80%	82%
xG prevented	57%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eibar

Fixtures, form & tips

Almería

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eibar vs Almería according to our model?

The model gives Eibar a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eibar 40%, draw 27%, Almería 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Eibar vs Almería?

The model expects 1.36 goals (xG) for Eibar and 1.31 for Almería, 2.67 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Eibar or draw (1X) 67%, Almería or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.