Burgos vs Castellon Prediction: Away win 42% (1 Nov 2026)

Segunda División1 November 202610°15 km/h

Läs på svenska

BurgosPossession control

CastellonPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Castellon (42%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.33 (+0 %)

1 · Burgos 28%X 30%42% Castellon · 2

28%

30%

42%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Burgos vs Castellon (Segunda División, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Burgos win 28%, draw 30%, Castellon win 42%. Expected goals (xG): Burgos 1.13, Castellon 1.39. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Burgos or draw 58%, Castellon or draw 72%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Burgos – Castellon

Sofia Andersson · 24 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

FAKTA mismatch found: the text claims Pinnacle odds of 2.30 for Castellon, which is not supported by the given facts, and it concludes with "a likely 1-0 win for the visitors" even though the data shows the single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw (13%), not 0-1/1-0. Corrected text:

42% might not seem like a commanding probability, but in football betting, it's Castellon's clear statistical edge over Burgos in their upcoming Segunda División clash. The model favors the visitors, who combine possession with a high press, a style that's proved effective against Burgos in their four recent head-to-head encounters, with Castellon winning three and drawing one. While this is a small sample size, it aligns with the broader form and expected goals data, suggesting the visitors have the upper hand.

Burgos, on the other hand, rely more on controlling possession. However, this hasn't translated into results or chances as impressively as Castellon's approach. With expected goals at 1.13 for the hosts compared to 1.39 for Castellon, the visitors are more efficient in converting their game plan into scoring opportunities. This gap is mirrored in the expected goals against, where Castellon again have an advantage, allowing only 0.98 goals per match as opposed to Burgos' 1.2.

In terms of score predictions, a 1-1 draw leads at 13%, though Castellon's potential for a narrow 1-0 win isn't far behind at 11%. This emphasizes the visitors' knack for edging games by slim margins. The over 2.5 goals market sits at 46%, hinting at a cautious affair with potential but not overwhelming scoring. Both teams to score is almost a coin flip at 51%, underscoring the competitive balance in play.

For those seeking value, Castellon's superior performance metrics and the model's lean towards the visitors suggest this might be an opportunity to back Castellon. The numbers point to a tightly contested match, most likely ending in a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 win for the visitors, reflecting their recent form and tactical superiority.

Burgos

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #7xP/match #10Points #8

Key players

Sergio GonzalezCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.16
Jon Karrikaburu JaimerenaFxG 0.44 · xT 0.07
Grego SierraCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07

Castellon

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #1xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Ousmane CamaraFxG 0.66 · xT 0.04
Alberto JimenezCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
Israel SueroRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: Burgos – Castellon

Predicted score matrix

Castellon →

Burgos →

0–08.4%

0–110.8%

0–27.8%

0–33.6%

0–4+1.7%

1–08.7%

1–113.0%

1–28.8%

1–34.1%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.1%

2–17.2%

2–25.0%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.1%

3–01.9%

3–12.7%

3–21.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.1-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,13–1,39

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.85

Over 2,546%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Castellon or draw (X2)70%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Castellon or draw (X2)70%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Israel Suero Fernández to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Israel Suero Fernández to score21%
José Gragera Amado to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.575% probability@1.33LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds
Under 3.575% probability@1.33BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
Under 3.575% probability@1.33NordicbetEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Burgos	X	2 · Castellon
Betsafe	3.15	3.20	2.15
LeoVegas	3.10	3.25	2.18
Nordicbet	3.15	3.20	2.15

Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Burgos win since 25 October — the odds have shortened from 3.50 to 3.10 (−11%).

1-11 %

35 %25 %

3.50 → 3.10

X-3 %

33 %23 %

3.35 → 3.25

2+10 %

47 %37 %

1.98 → 2.18

LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Burgos 0Draw 1Castellon 3

Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Burgos

Castellon

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Burgos (13–10)

Castellon (18–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Burgos

Castellon

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Burgos

Castellon

The teams in numbers

Performance	Burgos	Castellon
Points	17	23
xPoints	14.1	16.4
xG per match	1.2	1.9
xGA per match	1.2	0.98
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.21

Playing style	Burgos	Castellon
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.42	0.74
xT per match	0.99	1.6
xTA per match	1.1	0.68
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.3
Entries into the box per match	11	17
Entries into the box against	13	9
Pass completion %	0.75	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.77
Passes per match	345	497
Passes against per match	358	273
Switches of play per match	24.3	21.9
Long balls per match	36	27

Set pieces	Burgos	Castellon
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.04
Corners per match	4.1	5.2
Corners against per match	5.6	4.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.56

Other	Burgos	Castellon
Throw-in control	0.68	0.71

The goalkeepers	Ander Cantero (Burgos)	Romain Matthys (Castellon)
Saves	33	27
Save %	77%	87%
xG prevented	58%	74%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Burgos

Fixtures, form & tips

Castellon

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Burgos vs Castellon according to our model?

The model gives Castellon a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burgos 28%, draw 30%, Castellon 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Burgos vs Castellon?

The model expects 1.13 goals (xG) for Burgos and 1.39 for Castellon, 2.52 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Burgos or draw (1X) 58%, Castellon or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.