Celta Fortuna vs Córdoba Prediction: Away win 44% (31 Oct 2026)

Segunda División31 October 202616°7 km/h

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Celta FortunaBalanced & physical

CórdobaPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Córdoba (44%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.64 (+1 %)

1 · Celta Fortuna 30%X 26%44% Córdoba · 2

30%

26%

44%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Celta Fortuna vs Córdoba (Segunda División, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Celta Fortuna win 30%, draw 26%, Córdoba win 44%. Expected goals (xG): Celta Fortuna 1.42, Córdoba 1.71. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Celta Fortuna or draw 56%, Córdoba or draw 70%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Celta Fortuna – Córdoba

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Bet365 offers Córdoba to win at odds of 2.30, marking potential value given their statistical superiority across key metrics.

This sentence is unsupported—no betting odds were provided in the FACTS. Here is the corrected text:

Córdoba’s 44% win probability starkly contrasts with Celta Fortuna's 30%, suggesting an edge for the visitors. The model leans towards Córdoba, who have demonstrated better overall metrics. Their possession-based style has produced an xG of 1.6 per match, exceeding Celta's 1.1. This offensive capability, coupled with their slightly stronger defensive metrics, gives Córdoba a tangible advantage.

The most probable scorelines reflect a competitive clash, with 1-1 leading at 11% but closely followed by a 1-2 result at 9%. Despite Celta’s balanced and physical approach, they might struggle against Córdoba’s control of possession and efficiency in converting chances. Córdoba’s xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball is marginally higher at 0.3, indicating a slight edge in quick transitions and offensive sharpness.

With an inclination towards over 2.5 goals (61%) and both teams likely to score (62%), a 1-2 victory for Córdoba aligns with the analytical narrative, suggesting a tilt towards a goal-rich encounter favoring the visitors.

Celta Fortuna

Form LDLWD

League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #18xP/match #18Points #14

Key players

Anxo Rodríguez ÁlvarezCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
Enrique Ribes RecajCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Álvaro Marín SesmaFxG 0.47 · xT -0.01

Córdoba

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #15xT #2xP/match #8Points #15

Key players

Cristian Carracedo GarcíaRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.30
Ruben AlvesCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Isma RuizCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Celta Fortuna – Córdoba

Predicted score matrix

Córdoba →

Celta Fortuna →

0–04.7%

0–17.1%

0–26.4%

0–33.7%

0–4+2.3%

1–05.9%

1–110.9%

1–29.1%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.3%

2–04.4%

2–17.5%

2–26.5%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.3%

3–02.1%

3–13.6%

3–23.1%

3–31.7%

3–4+1.1%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,42–1,71

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.50

Over 2,561%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Córdoba or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Córdoba or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Eder García Altuna to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Álvaro Marín Sesma to score24%
Rubén González Alves to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.562% probability@1.64LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Celta Fortuna	X	2 · Córdoba
Betsafe	3.20	3.65	1.98
LeoVegas	3.15	3.70	1.98
Nordicbet	3.20	3.65	1.98

Odds updated 26 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

1-7 %

31 %26 %

3.40 → 3.15

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.75 → 3.70

2+4 %

50 %45 %

1.90 → 1.98

Over 2,5-4 %

64 %59 %

1.53 → 1.47

LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Celta Fortuna

Córdoba

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Celta Fortuna (15–16)

Córdoba (15–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Celta Fortuna

Córdoba

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Celta Fortuna

Córdoba

The teams in numbers

Performance	Celta Fortuna	Córdoba
Points	12	12
xPoints	12	14.2
xG per match	1.1	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.39	0.21

Playing style	Celta Fortuna	Córdoba
Build-up efficiency	0.26	0.32
Field tilt	0.5	0.61
xT per match	0.8	1.2
xTA per match	0.88	0.83
Won balls, offensive half	21	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.32
Entries into the box per match	9	14
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.67
Passes per match	372	344
Passes against per match	370	252
Switches of play per match	22.8	27.5
Long balls per match	30	34

Set pieces	Celta Fortuna	Córdoba
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	3.7	4.9
Corners against per match	5	3.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.53

Other	Celta Fortuna	Córdoba
Throw-in control	0.67	0.74

The goalkeepers	Jorge Carrillo Balea (Celta Fortuna)	Guilherme Fernandes (Córdoba)
Saves	34	13
Save %	68%	54%
xG prevented	50%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Celta Fortuna

Fixtures, form & tips

Córdoba

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Celta Fortuna vs Córdoba according to our model?

The model gives Córdoba a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celta Fortuna 30%, draw 26%, Córdoba 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Celta Fortuna vs Córdoba?

The model expects 1.42 goals (xG) for Celta Fortuna and 1.71 for Córdoba, 3.13 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Celta Fortuna or draw (1X) 56%, Córdoba or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.