Eldense vs Granada Prediction: Home win 41% (1 Nov 2026)

Segunda División1 November 202614°11 km/h

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EldensePossession control

GranadaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Eldense (41%)

1 · Eldense 41%X 30%29% Granada · 2

41%

30%

29%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Eldense vs Granada (Segunda División, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Eldense win 41%, draw 30%, Granada win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Eldense 1.56, Granada 1.24. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Eldense or draw 71%, Granada or draw 59%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Eldense – Granada

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

With Eldense hosting Granada, both teams’ shared preference for possession control ensures a tight, strategic encounter. The model suggests a slight edge for the hosts, but with only two head-to-head encounters since 2023—both won by Granada—the historical data remains sparse and less telling than current form. Eldense's three-match winning streak adds a layer of confidence, yet they face a Granada side on an even more impressive four-match run.

Expected goals paint a modest picture: Eldense at 1.56 and Granada at 1.24. These numbers suggest a contest where control trumps chaos, though with a slight nod towards the home side's offensive potential. Leaning slightly towards over 2.5 goals at 53%, the data hints at a match where chances arise but are carefully crafted rather than frequent. The 1-1 and 2-1 scorelines emerge as the most probable, reflecting a game likely decided by fine margins.

Further data nuances highlight a balance in xGA, where Granada's edge (1.1 to Eldense's 1.3) might tip the scales if both sides maintain their defensive discipline. Possession will be plentiful, but breaking through will likely depend on exploiting minimal lapses. While Granada's overall season edge in points and xPoints underscores their solidity, Eldense's recent surge cannot be discounted.

For bettors seeking a measured approach, the suggested value might lie in backing Eldense at odds implying their 41% win probability. Understanding the defensive strengths and game tempo, this bet harmonizes with the data-driven inclination that the hosts could edge out a tightly contested affair, potentially sealing a 2-1 victory while underscoring the profitability of consistent, grounded wagers.

Eldense

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #3xP/match #16Points #11

Key players

Carlos GuiraoCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.18
Fidel Chaves de la TorreRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.22
Jorge Rastrojo MoroRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.08

Granada

Form LWWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #8xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Benedikt Steffen GimberCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.10
Pedro AlemanFxG 0.26 · xT 0.12
Sergio López GalacheRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.27

Match prediction: Eldense – Granada

Predicted score matrix

Granada →

Eldense →

0–06.4%

0–17.2%

0–24.7%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–09.1%

1–112.1%

1–27.3%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.4%

2–19.2%

2–25.7%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.8%

3–14.8%

3–23.0%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.1%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,56–1,24

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.85

Over 2,553%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Eldense or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Eldense or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals53%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Eldense	X	2 · Granada
Betsafe	2.20	3.25	3.05
LeoVegas	2.20	3.30	3.00
Nordicbet	2.20	3.25	3.05

Odds updated 26 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

44 %39 %

2.25 → 2.20

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.30 → 3.30

20 %

33 %28 %

3.00 → 3.00

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Eldense 0Draw 0Granada 2

Goals: 2–6 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

CD Eldense come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Granada CF come into this round on 4 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eldense

Granada

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eldense (13–13)

Granada (18–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eldense

Granada

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eldense

Granada

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eldense	Granada
Points	14	20
xPoints	12.9	16.4
xG per match	1.2	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.31

Playing style	Eldense	Granada
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.56	0.49
xT per match	1.1	0.97
xTA per match	0.91	0.89
Won balls, offensive half	23	26
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.21
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	11	9
Pass completion %	0.75	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.69
Passes per match	357	322
Passes against per match	376	341
Switches of play per match	28.1	33
Long balls per match	33	43

Set pieces	Eldense	Granada
xG from free kicks	0	0.04
Corners per match	5.9	4.8
Corners against per match	5.1	3.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.59

Other	Eldense	Granada
Throw-in control	0.6	0.65

The goalkeepers	Ramón Vila Rovira (Eldense)	Raul Lizoain (Granada)
Saves	31	27
Save %	72%	71%
xG prevented	48%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eldense

Fixtures, form & tips

Granada

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eldense vs Granada according to our model?

The model gives Eldense a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eldense 41%, draw 30%, Granada 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Eldense vs Granada?

The model expects 1.56 goals (xG) for Eldense and 1.24 for Granada, 2.80 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Eldense or draw (1X) 71%, Granada or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.