Mallorca vs Cádiz Prediction: Home win 62% (2 Nov 2026)

Segunda División2 November 202615°11 km/h

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MallorcaPossession & high press

CádizPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Mallorca (62%)Best value by the model: 2 · Cádiz @ 7.00 (+11 %)

1 · Mallorca 62%X 22%16% Cádiz · 2

62%

22%

16%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Mallorca vs Cádiz (Segunda División, Monday, 2 November 2026): Mallorca win 62%, draw 22%, Cádiz win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Mallorca 1.76, Cádiz 0.95. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Mallorca or draw 84%, Cádiz or draw 38%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Mallorca – Cádiz

Sofia Andersson · 24 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Mallorca’s 62% win probability underlines their perceived dominance over Cádiz in this clash. Despite a solid advantage in the points table, where the hosts boast 18 points to the visitors' mere 7, the underlying metrics paint a more nuanced picture. The xPoints suggest Cádiz has been somewhat unlucky, with a slight edge over Mallorca — 13.6 to 13.1. This discrepancy indicates that the visitors have perhaps underperformed based on their chances and gameplay.

The expected goals of 1.76 for Mallorca versus 0.95 for Cádiz indicate a lean towards the home side controlling the match's tempo. Yet, the model hints at a tight affair, with common scorelines like 1-1 and 1-0 both at 11%. The evenly poised over 2.5 goals and both teams to score percentages at 51% each suggest that the game could swing either way in terms of total goals. This brings us to a tension: will Mallorca’s high press and possession game crack Cádiz’s control style?

Cádiz, despite having a possession-based approach, appears vulnerable against Mallorca’s pressing. Both sides are closely matched in creating chances immediately after winning possession, with Mallorca slightly ahead at 0.3 xG compared to Cádiz's 0.28. Moreover, the defensive numbers are nearly identical, with Mallorca at 0.19 xGA and Cádiz at 0.2, emphasizing their defensive resilience.

Given these insights, a narrow victory for the hosts, such as 1-0, seems plausible. The odds reflect an expectation of a tight match, and any deviations in the game flow could tilt the scale.

Mallorca

Form WLDWD

League ranking xG #16xGA #6xT #21xP/match #13Points #7

Key players

Martin ValjentCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Antonio RailloCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Adrian Fuentes GonzalezFxG 0.46 · xT 0.09

Cádiz

Form LDWLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #5xT #19xP/match #12Points #20

Key players

Javi CastroCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Vladyslav KopotunFxG 0.33 · xT 0.17
Manuel Fernández ArroyoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Mallorca – Cádiz

Predicted score matrix

Cádiz →

Mallorca →

0–07.0%

0–16.0%

0–23.0%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–011.4%

1–111.5%

1–25.3%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.3%

2–19.8%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.0%

3–15.7%

3–22.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.9%

4+–13.7%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,76–0,95

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.85

Over 2,551%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Mallorca to win62%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Mallorca to win62%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Adrian Fuentes Gonzalez to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Adrian Fuentes Gonzalez to score40%
Marc-Olivier Doué Séné to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Cádiz16% probability@7.00BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
2 · Cádiz16% probability@7.00NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
2 · Cádiz16% probability@6.75LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mallorca	X	2 · Cádiz
Betsafe	1.43	4.05	EV+ 11% 7.00
LeoVegas	1.42	4.10	EV+ 7% 6.75
Nordicbet	1.43	4.05	EV+ 11% 7.00

Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 26 October — the odds have shortened from 2.02 to 1.85 (−8%).

1+5 %

68 %63 %

1.35 → 1.42

X-9 %

24 %19 %

4.50 → 4.10

2-10 %

16 %11 %

7.50 → 6.75

Over 2,5+11 %

55 %50 %

1.67 → 1.85

LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mallorca

Cádiz

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mallorca (12–5)

Cádiz (11–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mallorca

Cádiz

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mallorca

Cádiz

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mallorca	Cádiz
Points	18	7
xPoints	13.1	13.6
xG per match	1.1	1.1
xGA per match	1.1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.2

Playing style	Mallorca	Cádiz
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.57	0.47
xT per match	0.68	0.75
xTA per match	0.7	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	10	10
Pass completion %	0.8	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.72
Passes per match	405	387
Passes against per match	333	357
Switches of play per match	17.2	25.3
Long balls per match	26	29

Set pieces	Mallorca	Cádiz
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	4.9	4.7
Corners against per match	4.3	4.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.67

Other	Mallorca	Cádiz
Throw-in control	0.67	0.64

The goalkeepers	Arnau Tenas Ureña (Mallorca)	Jokin Ezkieta (Cádiz)
Saves	29	28
Save %	88%	76%
xG prevented	61%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mallorca

Fixtures, form & tips

Cádiz

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mallorca vs Cádiz according to our model?

The model gives Mallorca a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mallorca 62%, draw 22%, Cádiz 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Mallorca vs Cádiz?

The model expects 1.76 goals (xG) for Mallorca and 0.95 for Cádiz, 2.71 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Mallorca or draw (1X) 84%, Cádiz or draw (X2) 38% and no draw (12) 78%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.