01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance De Graafschap or draw (X2)61%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Eerste Divisie13°2,0 mm24 km/h
Läs på svenska
Jong AjaxPossession control2–1
De GraafschapPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · De Graafschap (38%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.45 (+17 %)
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap · Eerste Divisie
1 · Jong Ajax 35%X 26%38% De Graafschap · 2
35%
26%
38%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap (Eerste Divisie, Monday, 19 October 2026): Jong Ajax win 35%, draw 26%, De Graafschap win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Jong Ajax 1.72, De Graafschap 1.68. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. Double chance: Jong Ajax or draw 62%, De Graafschap or draw 65%. Prediction updated Sunday, 11 October 2026.
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Analysis: Jong Ajax – De Graafschap
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
If you're looking for defensive control, this Eerste Divisie matchup between Jong Ajax and De Graafschap might just be your kind of watch. Both teams are inclined towards possession control, a style that often leads to games dominated by tactical maneuvers rather than goal gluts. The model sees this clash as tightly contested, giving a slight edge to the visitors with a 38% chance of victory against the hosts' 35%.
The most probable scorelines, pegged at 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2, suggest a narrow game with both sides finding the net. Expected goals indicate a marginal Jong Ajax advantage at 1.72 to 1.68, yet it's De Graafschap who leads with points (11 vs. 8) and maintains a slight head-to-head edge since 2023 with two wins out of four encounters. However, this sample remains small and does not weigh heavily against current form and expected goals.
The weather could be a dampening factor, with rain anticipated, which typically suppresses high-scoring affairs. This is already factored into the model's numbers, suggesting that despite expectations, a cagey match isn't off the table. Both teams concede quite a bit, with xGA figures of 1.7 for Ajax and 1.9 for De Graafschap, further hinting at potential goals but also underscoring the defensive vulnerabilities on both ends.
While the market leans toward a game with over 2.5 goals (66%), there's intriguing value in a low-scoring outcome. Betting on under 2.5 goals with Betsafe and Nordicbet offers odds of 3.45, a substantial 17% edge according to the model's 34% assessment. If you're seeking a slightly safer route, consider under 3.5 goals with LeoVegas at 2.02, with the model providing a 13% edge at 56%.
Ultimately, Jong Ajax and De Graafschap may deliver more strategy than spectacle, and that's where shrewd punters might find their opportunity, with a likely drawn-out 1-1 perhaps the night's spoiler.
Jong AjaxForm DWLLD
League ranking xG #14xGA #16xT #16xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Emre ÜnüvarRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.11
- Pharell NashLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.36
- Mark VerkuijlCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
De GraafschapForm WLWDW
League ranking xG #17xGA #21xT #14xP/match #20Points #16
Key players
- Joran HardemanCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.11
- Rowan BesselinkCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
- Julian KaniaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.03
Final score
2 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Jong Ajax 35% · Draw 26% · De Graafschap 38%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Jong AjaxBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,70fair 6,38-26 %
MissMatchresultat - De GraafschapBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,18fair 6,66-37 %
MissMatch prediction: Jong Ajax – De Graafschap
Predicted score matrix
De Graafschap →
Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.6%
0–15.3%
0–24.7%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–05.4%
1–19.9%
1–28.1%
1–34.5%
1–4+2.8%
2
2–04.9%
2–18.3%
2–27.0%
2–33.9%
2–4+2.4%
3
3–02.8%
3–14.7%
3–24.0%
3–32.2%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–13.0%
4+–22.5%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.9%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-18%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.1-05%
Expected goals
1,72–1,68
Both teams to score
67%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
419%
5+26%
Under 2,534%
@3.45EV+17%
Over 2,566%
@1.29
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance De Graafschap or draw (X2)61%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Julian Kania to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score67%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Julian Kania to score23%
- Mark Thomas Willem Verkuijl to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.534% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
- Under 2.534% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
- Under 3.556% probability@2.02LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Jong Ajax | X | 2 · De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.55 | EV+ 2% 3.85 | 2.25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.50 | EV+ 5% 3.95 | 2.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.55 | EV+ 2% 3.85 | 2.25 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 10:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Jong Ajax win since 12 October — the odds have shortened from 2.85 to 2.50 (−12%).
1-12 %
39 %29 %
2.85 → 2.50
X+1 %
28 %18 %
3.90 → 3.95
2+15 %
47 %37 %
2.05 → 2.35
LeoVegas · 12 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesJong Ajax 1Draw 1De Graafschap 2
Goals: 4–8 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jong Ajax
De Graafschap
Jong Ajax (13–22)
De Graafschap (13–23)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jong Ajax
De Graafschap
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jong Ajax
De Graafschap
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Jong Ajax | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 11 |
| xPoints | 10 | 10.8 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Jong Ajax | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 361 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 306 | 299 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.4 | 35.1 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 44 |
| Set pieces | Jong Ajax | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 6.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| Other | Jong Ajax | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Joeri Heerkens (Jong Ajax) | Ties Wieggers (De Graafschap) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 36 |
| Save % | 60% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 32% | 35% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Helmond Sport – NAC Breda16 October 2026
- Den Bosch – TOP Oss16 October 2026
- VVV-Venlo – Jong AZ16 October 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Vitesse16 October 2026
- Emmen – Almere City17 October 2026
- Waalwijk – Volendam18 October 2026
- MVV Maastricht – Heracles Almelo18 October 2026
- Jong Utrecht – Roda19 October 2026
- Jong PSV – Dordrecht19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap according to our model?
The model gives De Graafschap a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong Ajax 35%, draw 26%, De Graafschap 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
The model expects 1.72 goals (xG) for Jong Ajax and 1.68 for De Graafschap, 3.40 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Jong Ajax or draw (1X) 62%, De Graafschap or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.