Jong PSV vs Dordrecht: Prediction & Odds (19 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie19 October 202612°0,4 mm18 km/h

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Jong PSVPossession & high press

0–1

DordrechtPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Jong PSV (46%)

1 · Jong PSV 46%X 22%32% Dordrecht · 2

46%

22%

32%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Jong PSV vs Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie, Monday, 19 October 2026): Jong PSV win 46%, draw 22%, Dordrecht win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Jong PSV 1.93, Dordrecht 1.70. Most likely score: 1-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. Double chance: Jong PSV or draw 68%, Dordrecht or draw 54%. Prediction updated Sunday, 11 October 2026.

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Analysis: Jong PSV – Dordrecht

Marcus Johansson · 18 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The matchup between Jong PSV and Dordrecht hinges on a clash of styles, with both teams favoring possession but differing in their intent. Jong PSV's commitment to high press and possession is backed by an impressive streak of scoring in 11 consecutive league matches, suggesting they have the offensive tools to challenge any defense. On the other hand, Dordrecht's approach to control the game suggests a more cautious build-up, which may struggle against the aggressive press of the hosts.

Jong PSV enters this encounter with a slight edge, supported by the model probabilities (46% win chance) and a superior xG of 1.93 compared to Dordrecht's 1.70. The expected goals indicate a likely high-scoring affair, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams expected to find the net. The hosts are not only ahead in points (13 to 8) but also lead in xPoints (14.2 to 9.9), underlining their better season form.

The head-to-head record since 2023, although a small sample of four matches, leans slightly towards Dordrecht with two wins to Jong PSV's one. However, this history pales compared to the current form and expected goals data, which favor the home side's chances. This discrepancy between historical results and current metrics suggests a shift in momentum towards Jong PSV.

The most probable scorelines are 1-1 (9%) and 2-1 (8%), indicating a closely contested match. Given the high likelihood of goals and both teams scoring, a 2-1 victory for the hosts seems plausible. The absence of weather considerations ensures these expectations remain unaltered.

Assessing the value on offer, Bet365 presents an attractive option: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.70. With a 70% chance of this outcome, it stands as a compelling choice for punters looking to capitalize on the attacking potential both sides possess.

Jong PSV

Form WLDLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #12xP/match #9Points #12

Key players

Jordy BawuahCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
Madi MonamayCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Essien BasseyRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.17

Dordrecht

Form LLWDL

League ranking xG #20xGA #20xT #15xP/match #21Points #19

Key players

Ayoub OuarghiCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.13
Lorenzo RiccioCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Stan HenderikxCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Jong PSV 46% · Draw 22% · Dordrecht 32%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - DordrechtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,98fair 6,67-10 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Jong PSVBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,49fair 5,15-13 %

Miss

Match prediction: Jong PSV – Dordrecht

Predicted score matrix

Dordrecht →

Jong PSV →

0–02.9%

0–14.3%

0–23.8%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.4%

1–04.9%

1–19.0%

1–27.4%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.6%

2–04.9%

2–18.4%

2–27.1%

2–34.0%

2–4+2.5%

3–03.2%

3–15.4%

3–24.6%

3–32.6%

3–4+1.6%

4+–02.4%

4+–14.0%

4+–23.4%

4+–31.9%

4+–4+1.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-19%
2.2-18%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.3-15%

Expected goals

1,93–1,70

Both teams to score

70%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+30%

Under 2,530%

@2.82

Over 2,570%

@1.42

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Jong PSV to win46%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Jong PSV to win46%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Shuryjano Cornecion to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score70%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Shuryjano Cornecion to score22%
Lorenzo Riccio to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Jong PSV	X	2 · Dordrecht
Betsafe	2.12	3.60	2.95
LeoVegas	2.15	3.75	2.90
Nordicbet	2.12	3.60	2.95

Odds updated 19 Oct, 13:35

Odds movement

1+10 %

47 %42 %

1.95 → 2.15

X-3 %

27 %22 %

3.85 → 3.75

2-5 %

33 %28 %

3.05 → 2.90

LeoVegas · 15 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Jong PSV 1Draw 1Dordrecht 2

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

PSV U21 have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jong PSV

Dordrecht

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jong PSV (15–17)

Dordrecht (13–27)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jong PSV

Dordrecht

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jong PSV

Dordrecht

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jong PSV	Dordrecht
Points	13	8
xPoints	14.2	9.9
xG per match	1.5	0.95
xGA per match	1.5	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.32

Playing style	Jong PSV	Dordrecht
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.55	0.53
xT per match	1.1	1
xTA per match	1.3	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	22
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.28
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	16	13
Pass completion %	0.79	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.7
Passes per match	420	363
Passes against per match	321	312
Switches of play per match	26.9	25.6
Long balls per match	39	42

Set pieces	Jong PSV	Dordrecht
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.04
Corners per match	5.2	4.6
Corners against per match	4.9	3.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.49

Other	Jong PSV	Dordrecht
Throw-in control	0.76	0.77

The goalkeepers	Khadim Ngom (Jong PSV)	Calvin Owen Harm Raatsie (Dordrecht)
Saves	16	26
Save %	73%	61%
xG prevented	76%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Jong PSV

Fixtures, form & tips

Dordrecht

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jong PSV vs Dordrecht according to our model?

The model gives Jong PSV a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong PSV 46%, draw 22%, Dordrecht 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 70% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Jong PSV vs Dordrecht?

The model expects 1.93 goals (xG) for Jong PSV and 1.70 for Dordrecht, 3.63 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Jong PSV or draw (1X) 68%, Dordrecht or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 78%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.