01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Roda to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Eerste Divisie12°2,8 mm19 km/h
Läs på svenska
Jong UtrechtPossession control1–2
RodaPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Roda (51%)Best value by the model: 1 · Jong Utrecht @ 3.95 (+0 %)
Jong Utrecht vs Roda · Eerste Divisie
1 · Jong Utrecht 25%X 24%51% Roda · 2
25%
24%
51%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Jong Utrecht vs Roda (Eerste Divisie, Monday, 19 October 2026): Jong Utrecht win 25%, draw 24%, Roda win 51%. Expected goals (xG): Jong Utrecht 1.29, Roda 1.82. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Jong Utrecht or draw 49%, Roda or draw 75%. Prediction updated Sunday, 11 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Jong Utrecht – Roda
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
A glance at the numbers suggests an intriguing matchup between Jong Utrecht and Roda. Both teams aim to control possession, yet Roda's capacity to convert this control into results stands out. The visitors have secured 16 points compared to Utrecht's 7, a gap mirrored in their superior xPoints. Despite similar offensive profiles, Roda's defense offers a clear advantage, conceding significantly fewer expected goals per match.
Roda's historical dominance over this Utrecht side is a noteworthy detail. Out of the four encounters since 2023, Roda has claimed three victories and drawn once. While the head-to-head sample is small, it supports the broader pattern of current form and expected goals. Roda's defensive organization and sharper edge in attack provide a strong basis for their 51% win probability.
In terms of scoring, the model suggests a high-scoring game with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a similarly high expectation for both teams to find the net. Predicted scorelines like 1-1 and 1-2 further reinforce this view. However, the anticipated 2.8 mm of rain could suppress goal-scoring opportunities, a factor already integrated into the model's outlook.
For bettors, the sharpest angle lies in Roda's win probability. With their 51% chance of victory, any odds above even money could suggest value. Notably, some bookmakers offer Roda to win at 2.10, reflecting potential value for those backing the visitors to capitalize on their defensive solidity and Utrecht's vulnerabilities.
Jong UtrechtForm DWWLL
League ranking xG #18xGA #19xT #17xP/match #19Points #21
Key players
- Noa DundasFxG 0.23 · xT 0.04
- Wessel KooyCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.04
- Bjorn MenzoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.22
RodaForm WDWLD
League ranking xG #13xGA #4xT #18xP/match #8Points #6
Key players
- Lucas BeertenCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
- Joshua NisbetCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
- Marco TolCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Final score
1 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Jong Utrecht 25% · Draw 24% · Roda 51%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Jong FC UtrechtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,62fair 11,64-9 %
MissMatchresultat - Roda JCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,54fair 5,84-22 %
MissMatch prediction: Jong Utrecht – Roda
Predicted score matrix
Roda →
Jong Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–17.8%
0–27.4%
0–34.5%
0–4+3.1%
1
1–05.5%
1–110.8%
1–29.5%
1–35.8%
1–4+4.0%
2
2–03.7%
2–16.8%
2–26.1%
2–33.7%
2–4+2.6%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.9%
3–22.6%
3–31.6%
3–4+1.1%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.2%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.0-27%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,29–1,82
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.35
Over 2,560%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Roda to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Anthony Edsel Johannes van den Hurk to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Anthony Edsel Johannes van den Hurk to score23%
- Jérôme Déom to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Jong Utrecht25% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
- 1 · Jong Utrecht25% probability@3.95NordicbetEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Jong Utrecht | X | 2 · Roda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 0% 3.95 | 3.85 | 1.78 |
| LeoVegas | 3.75 | 3.80 | 1.83 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 0% 3.95 | 3.85 | 1.78 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 12:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Roda win since 12 October — the odds have shortened from 1.98 to 1.83 (−7%).
1+19 %
32 %22 %
3.15 → 3.75
X+6 %
30 %20 %
3.60 → 3.80
2-7 %
53 %43 %
1.98 → 1.83
Over 2,5-3 %
64 %54 %
1.58 → 1.53
LeoVegas · 18 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesJong Utrecht 0Draw 1Roda 3
Goals: 3–10 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jong Utrecht
Roda
Jong Utrecht (16–23)
Roda (10–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jong Utrecht
Roda
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jong Utrecht
Roda
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Jong Utrecht | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 16 |
| xPoints | 11.1 | 14.9 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Jong Utrecht | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 285 | 361 |
| Passes against per match | 360 | 374 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.5 | 20.7 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Jong Utrecht | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| Other | Jong Utrecht | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Mees Eppink (Jong Utrecht) | Justin Treichel (Roda) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 40 |
| Save % | 61% | 85% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 77% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Helmond Sport – NAC Breda16 October 2026
- Den Bosch – TOP Oss16 October 2026
- VVV-Venlo – Jong AZ16 October 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Vitesse16 October 2026
- Emmen – Almere City17 October 2026
- Waalwijk – Volendam18 October 2026
- MVV Maastricht – Heracles Almelo18 October 2026
- Jong Ajax – De Graafschap19 October 2026
- Jong PSV – Dordrecht19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jong Utrecht vs Roda according to our model?
The model gives Roda a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong Utrecht 25%, draw 24%, Roda 51%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
The model expects 1.29 goals (xG) for Jong Utrecht and 1.82 for Roda, 3.11 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Jong Utrecht or draw (1X) 49%, Roda or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.