01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Emmen to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Eerste Divisie11°12,7 mm19 km/h
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EmmenPossession & high press2–1
Almere CityLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Emmen (48%)
Emmen vs Almere City · Eerste Divisie
1 · Emmen 48%X 21%31% Almere City · 2
48%
21%
31%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Emmen vs Almere City (Eerste Divisie, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Emmen win 48%, draw 21%, Almere City win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Emmen 1.83, Almere City 1.54. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: Emmen or draw 69%, Almere City or draw 52%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Emmen – Almere City
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Emmen's high-octane playing style will be pivotal in their clash against Jong Almere City. With a strong emphasis on possession and a relentless high press, the hosts seem poised to dictate the pace of the game. Their ability to suffocate opponents and control the midfield contrasts sharply with Almere City's strategy, which hinges on a deep defensive line and quick transitions. This stylistic clash could define the evening's narrative, with Emmen likely to control possession and Almere City seeking opportunities on the break.
The statistics reveal Emmen as the stronger side. Sitting on 19 points compared to Almere City's 12, and with expected points (xPoints) of 15.8 to the visitors' 7.5, Emmen holds a clear edge. Moreover, their defensive solidity is reflected in an expected goals against (xGA) per match of just 1.0, far superior to Almere City's 1.7. This suggests that while Emmen may concede, they're less likely to hemorrhage goals compared to their opponents.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, both teams are expected to find the back of the net, with a 66% chance of both teams scoring. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at a robust 65%, hinting at a match that could yield several goals despite the forecasted rain, with 12.7 mm expected. This weather factor might slightly dampen the attacking fluidity but is already considered in the model's numbers.
From a betting perspective, the value lies with the home side. Emmen is available at odds of 2.22 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 2.2 with LeoVegas, presenting a 6-7% edge based on the model's 48% probability for a home win. Given the hosts' superior form and tactical setup, backing Emmen appears to be the most promising angle in this fixture. Expect a likely 2-1 victory, as Emmen's pressing game edges out Almere City's counter-attacking threats.
EmmenForm LLWDW
League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #5xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- Nelson Efosa AmadinRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
- Casper StaringCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
- Bryan Albert Van HoveLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.22
Almere CityForm WWLWL
League ranking xG #11xGA #17xT #8xP/match #14Points #13
Key players
- Emanuel PokuFxG 0.13 · xT 0.19
- Ferdy DruijfFxG 0.69 · xT 0.16
- Enzo CornelisseCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.20
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Emmen 48% · Draw 21% · Almere City 31%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - EmmenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,95fair 5,64-12 %
MissMatchresultat - Almere City FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,18fair 8,03-23 %
MissMatch prediction: Emmen – Almere City
Predicted score matrix
Almere City →
Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.7%
0–15.0%
0–24.1%
0–32.1%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–06.0%
1–110.0%
1–27.5%
1–33.8%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.8%
2–18.9%
2–26.8%
2–33.5%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–03.5%
3–15.4%
3–24.2%
3–32.1%
3–4+1.2%
4+
4+–02.4%
4+–13.8%
4+–22.9%
4+–31.5%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-27%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.1-06%
Expected goals
1,83–1,54
Both teams to score
66%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
@2.68
Over 2,565%
@1.45
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Emmen to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Jack Cooper-Love to score38%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score66%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Jack Cooper-Love to score38%
- Mees Hoedemakers to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Emmen48% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Emmen48% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Emmen48% probability@2.18LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Emmen | X | 2 · Almere City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 7% 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 5% 2.18 | 3.75 | 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 7% 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 10:36
Odds movement
1-1 %
45 %40 %
2.20 → 2.18
X+4 %
28 %23 %
3.60 → 3.75
20 %
35 %30 %
2.80 → 2.80
Over 2,5+4 %
67 %62 %
1.40 → 1.45
LeoVegas · 21 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Emmen
Almere City
Emmen (22–18)
Almere City (13–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Emmen
Almere City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Emmen
Almere City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Emmen | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 12 |
| xPoints | 15.8 | 7.5 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Emmen | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 402 | 280 |
| Passes against per match | 317 | 372 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.5 | 24.2 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Emmen | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 6.4 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 2.9 | 6.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| Other | Emmen | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Sam Karssies (Emmen) | Wessel Speel (Almere City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 25 |
| Save % | 59% | 81% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 76% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Helmond Sport – NAC Breda16 October 2026
- Den Bosch – TOP Oss16 October 2026
- VVV-Venlo – Jong AZ16 October 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Vitesse16 October 2026
- Waalwijk – Volendam18 October 2026
- MVV Maastricht – Heracles Almelo18 October 2026
- Jong Utrecht – Roda19 October 2026
- Jong Ajax – De Graafschap19 October 2026
- Jong PSV – Dordrecht19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Emmen vs Almere City according to our model?
The model gives Emmen a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Emmen 48%, draw 21%, Almere City 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Emmen vs Almere City?
The model expects 1.83 goals (xG) for Emmen and 1.54 for Almere City, 3.37 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Emmen or draw (1X) 69%, Almere City or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.