01 · 2 legs
Safe
- NAC Breda to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Eerste Divisie17°5,0 mm17 km/h
Läs på svenska
Helmond SportPossession control0–2
NAC BredaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · NAC Breda (57%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.60 (+9 %)
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda · Eerste Divisie
1 · Helmond Sport 20%X 24%57% NAC Breda · 2
20%
24%
57%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 16 October 2026): Helmond Sport win 20%, draw 24%, NAC Breda win 57%. Expected goals (xG): Helmond Sport 1.19, NAC Breda 2.25. Most likely score: 1-2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Helmond Sport or draw 43%, NAC Breda or draw 80%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.
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Analysis: Helmond Sport – NAC Breda
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
NAC Breda's consistent scoring run, having netted in eight consecutive league matches, clashes with Helmond Sport’s possession control strategy. On paper, the visitors hold a clear advantage with a 57% probability to win, supported by their superior points tally and xG metrics. The numbers suggest a likely outcome skewing towards NAC Breda, predicted to find the net at least twice.
Helmond Sport may find solace in a small but notable head-to-head advantage since 2023, with a win and a draw in two encounters. However, this limited sample size holds less weight than current form and expected goals, where Breda’s aggressive pressing and attacking prowess shine through. The visitors' xG of 1.8 per match and a more robust defense (xGA of 1.1) further underline their superiority.
The expected goals tally leans heavily towards an over 2.5 goals scenario at 67%, despite possible dampening effects from rain forecasted. The model identifies the most likely scoreline as 1-2 to NAC Breda, with a strong 63% chance of both teams finding the net. This aligns with Helmond’s average xG of 1.3, suggesting they can breach NAC's defense, albeit likely in a losing effort.
Despite the forecasted outcome favoring Breda, the draw presents a tempting value proposition. LeoVegas offers odds of 4.75 for a stalemate, with the model spotting a substantial 13% edge. Betsafe and Nordicbet also feature draw odds at 4.55, underscoring a consistent value across multiple platforms.
In conclusion, NAC Breda's form and firepower make them the sensible pick, but the value lies in the draw at attractive odds. For those seeking to capitalize on market inefficiencies, this is the angle to consider.
Helmond SportForm WLLDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #13xT #20xP/match #10Points #17
Key players
- Mauro LenaertsFxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
- Livio CiceroFxG 0.26 · xT 0.16
- Xander Jan Van der VeldeLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
NAC BredaForm LWWDW
League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #7xP/match #6Points #4
Key players
- Jan Van Den BerghCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
- Kamal Deen SowahRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.15
- Mohamed NassohCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.21
Final score
0 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Helmond Sport 20% · Draw 24% · NAC Breda 57%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - NAC BredaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,49fair 4,13-16 %
MissMatchresultat - Helmond SportBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,05fair 14,97-20 %
MissMatch prediction: Helmond Sport – NAC Breda
Predicted score matrix
NAC Breda →
Helmond Sport →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.4%
0–16.9%
0–28.1%
0–36.1%
0–4+5.8%
1
1–03.6%
1–18.8%
1–29.7%
1–37.2%
1–4+6.9%
2
2–02.3%
2–15.1%
2–25.8%
2–34.3%
2–4+4.1%
3
3–00.9%
3–12.0%
3–22.3%
3–31.7%
3–4+1.6%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-210%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.0-28%
- 4.1-37%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,19–2,25
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+26%
Under 2,533%
@2.82
Over 2,567%
@1.41
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- NAC Breda to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Moussa Soumano to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Moussa Soumano to score25%
- Michel-Simon Ludwig to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw24% probability@4.60LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Helmond Sport20% probability@5.40BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Helmond Sport20% probability@5.40NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Helmond Sport | X | 2 · NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 5.40 | EV+ 2% 4.30 | 1.50 |
| LeoVegas | 4.90 | EV+ 9% 4.60 | 1.52 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 5.40 | EV+ 2% 4.30 | 1.50 |
Odds updated 16 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Helmond Sport win since 9 October — the odds have shortened from 5.40 to 4.90 (−9%).
1-9 %
20 %15 %
5.40 → 4.90
X-2 %
22 %17 %
4.70 → 4.60
2+5 %
65 %60 %
1.45 → 1.52
Over 2,50 %
69 %64 %
1.40 → 1.40
LeoVegas · 19 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHelmond Sport 1Draw 1NAC Breda 0
Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- NAC Breda have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Helmond Sport
NAC Breda
Helmond Sport (16–19)
NAC Breda (20–19)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Helmond Sport
NAC Breda
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Helmond Sport
NAC Breda
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Helmond Sport | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 17 |
| xPoints | 14.1 | 15.1 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Helmond Sport | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.66 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.99 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 316 | 388 |
| Passes against per match | 404 | 281 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.2 | 25.9 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Helmond Sport | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 6.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 3.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.67 |
| Other | Helmond Sport | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Menno Bergsen (Helmond Sport) | Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 44 | 22 |
| Save % | 71% | 55% |
| xG prevented | 55% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Den Bosch – TOP Oss16 October 2026
- VVV-Venlo – Jong AZ16 October 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Vitesse16 October 2026
- Emmen – Almere City17 October 2026
- Waalwijk – Volendam18 October 2026
- MVV Maastricht – Heracles Almelo18 October 2026
- Jong Utrecht – Roda19 October 2026
- Jong Ajax – De Graafschap19 October 2026
- Jong PSV – Dordrecht19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda according to our model?
The model gives NAC Breda a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Helmond Sport 20%, draw 24%, NAC Breda 57%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
The model expects 1.19 goals (xG) for Helmond Sport and 2.25 for NAC Breda, 3.44 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Helmond Sport or draw (1X) 43%, NAC Breda or draw (X2) 80% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.