01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Vitesse to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Eerste Divisie17°3,0 mm19 km/h
Läs på svenska
FC EindhovenPossession control0–1
VitesseLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Vitesse (49%)
FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse · Eerste Divisie
1 · FC Eindhoven 25%X 26%49% Vitesse · 2
25%
26%
49%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 16 October 2026): FC Eindhoven win 25%, draw 26%, Vitesse win 49%. Expected goals (xG): FC Eindhoven 1.39, Vitesse 1.78. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: FC Eindhoven or draw 51%, Vitesse or draw 75%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.
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Analysis: FC Eindhoven – Vitesse
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The numbers paint a vivid picture for the clash between FC Eindhoven and Vitesse, with the visitors holding the statistical edge. Vitesse's propensity for a low defensive block coupled with direct play could prove troublesome for the possession-focused Eindhoven. Despite the home team's intent to control the ball, their xG per match lags at 0.92, significantly trailing Vitesse's more robust 1.7. Meanwhile, Eindhoven's defensive vulnerabilities are evident, with an xGA of 1.9, suggesting that Vitesse's offensive incursions will likely bear fruit.
The head-to-head record is a small sample, with just four encounters since 2023. Eindhoven is yet to secure a win against Vitesse in this timeframe, sporting three draws and one loss. While past outcomes carry weight, the current forms and underlying metrics take precedence here. Vitesse’s superior points tally (14 vs. 11) aligns with their stronger xPoints (15.6 vs. 10.5), reinforcing their position as favorites.
The model underscores a 49% probability of a Vitesse win, with the most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 11% followed by a 1-2 result at 9%. The anticipated wet weather, with 2.4 mm of rain, may dampen scoring slightly, but with an over 2.5 goals probability at 61%, the conditions are unlikely to derail a high-scoring affair. The expectation for both teams to find the net sits at a healthy 63%, hinting at the potential for an open contest despite the rain.
The standout value bet emerges from Vitesse's outright win at 49%, especially if bookmakers offer odds reflecting less than half probability on this outcome. Given the numbers' lean and Vitesse’s statistical advantages, the visitors look well-placed to exploit Eindhoven's defensive frailties, likely edging a 2-1 victory.
FC EindhovenForm WWLDL
League ranking xG #21xGA #20xT #22xP/match #20Points #15
Key players
- Guus BeaumontCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
- Mika de JongeCMxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
- Kevin van VeenFxG 0.09 · xT 0.01
VitesseForm LWLDL
League ranking xG #5xGA #10xT #4xP/match #4Points #9
Key players
- Ricardo-Felipe SchwarzCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.30
- Naoufal BannisFxG 0.75 · xT -0.05
- Nathangelo Alexandro MarkeloRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.22
Final score
0 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: FC Eindhoven 25% · Draw 26% · Vitesse 49%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - VitesseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,97fair 6,00-17 %
MissMatchresultat - FC EindhovenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,55fair 9,90-24 %
MissMatch prediction: FC Eindhoven – Vitesse
Predicted score matrix
Vitesse →
FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–17.2%
0–26.7%
0–34.0%
0–4+2.6%
1
1–05.5%
1–110.7%
1–29.3%
1–35.5%
1–4+3.7%
2
2–04.1%
2–17.2%
2–26.4%
2–33.8%
2–4+2.5%
3
3–01.9%
3–13.3%
3–23.0%
3–31.8%
3–4+1.2%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-17%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,39–1,78
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.42
Over 2,561%
@1.52
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Vitesse to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Naoufal Bannis to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Naoufal Bannis to score25%
- Xander Blomme to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Vitesse49% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- 2 · Vitesse49% probability@2.08LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
- 2 · Vitesse49% probability@2.08NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Eindhoven | X | 2 · Vitesse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.15 | 3.60 | EV+ 3% 2.08 |
| LeoVegas | 3.05 | 3.70 | EV+ 3% 2.08 |
| Nordicbet | 3.15 | 3.60 | EV+ 3% 2.08 |
Odds updated 16 Oct, 09:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a FC Eindhoven win since 9 October — the odds have shortened from 3.35 to 3.05 (−9%).
1-9 %
31 %26 %
3.35 → 3.05
X-1 %
27 %22 %
3.75 → 3.70
2+9 %
49 %44 %
1.91 → 2.08
Over 2,50 %
64 %59 %
1.52 → 1.52
LeoVegas · 20 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesFC Eindhoven 0Draw 3Vitesse 1
Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Eindhoven
Vitesse
FC Eindhoven (15–22)
Vitesse (15–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Eindhoven
Vitesse
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Eindhoven
Vitesse
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Eindhoven | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 14 |
| xPoints | 10.5 | 15.6 |
| xG per match | 0.92 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | FC Eindhoven | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 0.61 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 296 | 317 |
| Passes against per match | 363 | 364 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.3 | 27.6 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 37 |
| Set pieces | FC Eindhoven | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.4 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| Other | FC Eindhoven | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Jort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven) | Connor van den Berg (Vitesse) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 26 |
| Save % | 60% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 35% | 73% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Helmond Sport – NAC Breda16 October 2026
- Den Bosch – TOP Oss16 October 2026
- VVV-Venlo – Jong AZ16 October 2026
- Emmen – Almere City17 October 2026
- Waalwijk – Volendam18 October 2026
- MVV Maastricht – Heracles Almelo18 October 2026
- Jong Utrecht – Roda19 October 2026
- Jong Ajax – De Graafschap19 October 2026
- Jong PSV – Dordrecht19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse according to our model?
The model gives Vitesse a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Eindhoven 25%, draw 26%, Vitesse 49%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse?
The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for FC Eindhoven and 1.78 for Vitesse, 3.17 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
FC Eindhoven or draw (1X) 51%, Vitesse or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.